Mordecai

Unless Celtic have a very successful season in Europe then there's a good chance that they'll be dropping down the UEFA club coefficient quite a bit after this season. The 12/13 season is by far the highest contributor to their coefficient (16.860 points) and that's about to drop off - the next highest is the 14/15 season with 7.8 points. At the moment Celtic are 45th in spite of their obvious failings from previous seasons, I hope that they do well this season in order to maintain some sort of stability which may give them a foothold to rise further and to reap the benefits of doing so (perhaps moving to pot 3 for group stage draws). However, there's still a lot of work to be done and Celtic need to punch above their weight to do so - I wish you the best of luck in that. At the moment Celtic have 2.525 points this season for their club coefficient, I'm not sure how much they would gain if/when they qualify for the CL group stage, perhaps @Marr1 knows? In terms of Scotland's current coefficient and looking over our shoulder at those behind us, beating an Israeli team has done us a favour. At the moment Israel have 3 of their 4 teams left in European competition and from that outset could feasibly overtake Scotland in the rankings (1.175 points behind us after last night). I think that outset is specious (good lexical choice, I'm having that) though, Israel are likely to lose one team in Hapoel Be'er Sheva to the EL group stage and Beitar Jerusalem lost 2-1 at home to St Etienne last night in the EL playoff, so are likely to be crashing out altogether. Maccabi Tel Aviv also have a tricky tie against Hadjuk Split coming up this evening. If they do drop to just one team left in Europe then I'd be confident of us staying ahead of them, particularly with the bonus point that we're likely to gain if Celtic qualify for the CL.

The thanks will arrive when Celtic beat a team that are seeded higher than them, that's what's needed to make any progress. At the moment Celtic have achieved the bare minimum that's expected. In terms of club coefficient, Hapoel Be'er Sheva are one place above St Johnstone (i.e. 206th); Celtic are currently 45th.

At what stage do these wins need to come? Bearing in mind for group stage wins double the amount of points are awarded. I've went back to the 02-03 season and there's not a single campaign where Scottish teams have won 16 games in Europe, nevermind for 3 seasons in a row. The most amount of games we've won in this period was in the 03-04 season where 14 games were won (6 were drawn) - we got 7.375 points that season. The only one that probably surpasses that would be the 07-08 season where 11 games were won and 14 were drawn (we got 10.25 points). I suppose you're not wrong though...if we consistently won 16 games in European football every season then there would be fewer qualifiers for Scottish clubs, but we don't need to be quite as successful as that.

I notice that Rosenborg were drawn against Austria Vienna in the EL play off. There's a real possibility that they'll have all of their teams out of Europe before that group stages even begin.

I think someone mentioned it in another thread, but we probably won't get to 15th spot until we consistently have 2 teams in group stage competitions. At the moment I'd probably see us beating our coefficient for last season as acceptable. We're not far away from that at the moment - If Celtic qualify for the CL group stage then we've surpassed that target by at least 0.625 points. Ideally we'd like to at least replicate the 12/13 season (our highest current total - 4.300) in order to mitigate any loss that would occur when that no longer counts next season. If Celtic go through to the CL group stage with 2 draws or a win and a loss (both the minimum required to qualify) then we'll be on 3.625 for the season and will need a further 0.675 points to make up for the points we'd be losing as of next season. Anything else is a bonus. @Marr1 Are the points for a win/draw doubled in the group stage of CL and EL?

I'd say we're in danger of being overtaken by Israel, particularly if Celtic don't beat Hapoel Be'er Sheva. They're 0.925 points behind us and still have 3 teams in Europe.

Pretty unlikely...if the planets were to align for Celtic I could still only see a maximum of 4 of those not getting through. In reality I reckon 1 or 2 may not make it. Five of the highest seven seeds getting knocked in the same round out is a big ask in any competition.

I take it that if Aberdeen were to progress then they wouldn't take Maribor's seeding for the play off round?

If Aberdeen can make it past Maribor then I see know reason why they couldn't beat a side that Dundalk humped 3-0. So that's encouraging at least...

I could perhaps see Sweden at a push, but we'd have to have a decent season with Celtic winning a few games in the CL group stage and not finishing bottom. Perhaps they'll spend some money if they qualify and this will seem more reasonable nearer the time. Belarus is probably too far a jump as they still have 3 teams in Europe with BATE dropping down to the Europa league. Dinamo Minsk also have an away goal and are drawing 1-1 on aggregate against Vojvodina and their other team (Torpedo Zhodino) also drew their first leg, but will probably struggle away to Rapid Vienna. It's probably fair to say that Belarus will have 2 teams in the next round of the EL and BATE should be seeded for the draw (I think).

Dundalk are 3-0 up at home to BATE and into injury time...shows what I know. Elsewhere Qarabag are out on away goals, so Azerbaijan won't be catching us this season. Norway no longer have any teams left in the competition after Rosenborg crashed out to Apoel Nicosia (losing 3-0 away). We should be looking to take Norway's 21st spot off them.

That is rather O/T, but stranger things have happened. I'd have more faith in Cork than Dundalk tbh. Both the Irish and Belarussian leagues are halfway through their seasons, whereas the Belgian league hasn't started yet. Although if BATE were to be eliminated it would certainly be doing us a favour. If I was betting on it, I'd still have both Irish teams being put out as neither have the all important away goal. Realistically I think the best that we can hope for this season is 21st. Denmark are in 20th and are currently leading the overall table for the season, plus they still have all of their teams still in. Even if Sweden do lose their last 2 participants (which is looking likely at the moment), I think the extra 2.55 points that we need may be too much of a jump for us at the moment. Certainly not impossible, but it would be our best European season since 07/08.

Romania could be on the verge of an absolutely terrible season in Europe. At the moment they have no teams automatically in the group stages, so no automatic bonus points. None of their teams have won a game so far either - Astra drew 1-1 at home with Copenhagen and Steaua Bucharest drew 1-1 away at Sparta Prague and as you said their other teams were beaten in the Europa league (although it was by Gent, not Genk). Last season they accumulated 2.25 points, which was less than Scotland and way down on their usual average. At the moment they're on 0.3 points for the season and any points they do manage to gain will be divided by 5 (CSMS Iasi have already been eliminated). If none of their teams progress from this round, which isn't outwith the realms of reasonable possibility, then they'll be dropping to around 25th or 26th in the rankings next season. As for Scotland, I think we need to have a decent season to remain ahead of Azerbaijan, but we could also jump ahead of Norway and Poland as you said.

Are you suggesting that a plane didn't fly into the building?

I don't agree with that. If we were to get another spot at the moment it would just serve to dilute our coefficient average even further.

That's not up to date. As it currently stands it's: 46 - Celtic 200 - Aberdeen, Motherwell 205 - St Johnstone 231 - Hearts 274 - Hibs, Dundee United 301 - Inverness Still not much better tbh, but I do expect Aberdeen to rise next year as they'll be losing a poor season. To put Hearts loss into perspective, Birkirkara are currently ranked 300th.

Got some free bets with Paddy Power (took their 3/1 introductory offer for Celtic last night), so thinking about sticking £10 of that on Hibs tonight just because it's a big price. Not expecting much tbh. Will probably leave the rest for another day, probably the league cup at the weekend.

The day the ice age ended?

Marathon Man - I really enjoyed this. A solid thriller with a brilliant cast and some uncomfortable scenes. I need to remember to try clove oil if I ever have a toothache. 8/10

Just completed the main story for this last night. Ending spoiler: I'll probably load a previous save to try the other endings, not sure how far back I should go though. The survival mode looks like it'll be solid too, I might even need to use some power armour once in a while.

For this season so far we're sitting 33rd (joint 28th on average points), but I'd expect this to increase quite quickly as there are plenty of countries above us who have already lost teams - Georgia for example have the same points as us (0.75), but have 3 teams already knocked out and are depending on Dinamo Tbilisi to gather the rest of their points. http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/ccoef2017.html As has been mentioned previously, we're sitting 23rd overall at the moment on the tails of Poland. I'd expect Legia Warsaw to get through their tie against NK Zrinjski, but it may not be a cakewalk against the Bosnian champions. Elsewhere Zaglebie Lubin have a trickier tie against Partizan Belgrade whilst Piast Gliwice will be doing well to get through against Gothenburg. It's not unrealistic to say that Poland could be left with one team in Europe after this round. Hopefully Aberdeen and Hearts can do the business in this round and Hibs manage to get some sort of positive result in one of their legs against Brondby and then we can start looking up the table to the dizzying heights of Norway and Belarus.

Did Cracovia not get put out? So Poland should be at 3/4? Which is also good news for us.

Perhaps...but for all the wrong reasons.

This isn't true. I've just saved you a journey that was destined to end in disappointment.