Thorongil
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Posts posted by Thorongil
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Wow!!! Hot day in Wales. Smashed that record.
Provisionally.0 -
10 minutes ago, craigkillie said:
Only if you don't understand how probability or more generally statistics works, which I suppose you have already shown is the case.
It is a prediction, but it is not necessarily a confident one. It would be impractical to show the associated uncertainty on a map like that, but it still exists.I watched the wee guy talking in the video. He predicted 40 and possibly as high as 41 with no caveats.
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2 minutes ago, coprolite said:
No it doesn't
It's a forecast not a prediction.
A forecast is a prediction. They are mutual synonyms.
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6 minutes ago, welshbairn said:
You don't think 1.3 degrees below the record is worth putting a warning out for?
Did I say that at any point?
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3 minutes ago, welshbairn said:
Wow, they fair screwed that up!
Well, if 0.1 of a degree in Wales is significant then 1.3 degrees is 13 times as significant.
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I think this constitutes confidently predicting 40 degrees again now for tomorrow. Certainly no mention of 50% probability in this forecast.
England didn’t get near its record today, a whole 1.3 below. Wales STILL being VAR checked for it’s 0.1 degree.
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1 minute ago, RawB93 said:
Honestly it took me two seconds to google and find out how they estimate past climates.
Did you say estimate?
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30 minutes ago, coprolite said:
The press release from 3 days ago when the warning was released included the 50%.
You guys are just making shit up
Yes, the media comms from forecasters and meterologists have been studiously pointing out 50% certainty in recent days and haven’t been presenting 40 degrees as highly likely.
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36 minutes ago, craigkillie said:
Was the record in Wales broken or not?Not sure. It’s being VAR checked.
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Just now, dorlomin said:
From Marcott 2013
https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.1228026
Longish story but our climate has been dominated by orbital cycles over the past 3 million years. This is due to our CO2 being so low vs historic norms. This made us very sensitive to small changes. So we built major ice sheets over both polls. Small changes in orbit change the energy at high northern latitude and pushed us in and out of glacials (what everyone thinks of as ice ages).
About 11 000 years ago the Earth was in northern hemisphere summer when closest to the Sun, this is what pushed us out of the last glacial. But over those 11000 years we now have our norther hemisphere summer when furthest from the Sun. This caused a long term cooling that we see in Marcott 2013. That cooling would allow snows to last longer in the high hills, so cooling springs and reinforcing etc. This is the long term causes of the glacial interglacial phases we see.
Our release of CO2 since the mid 1800 has seen that trend reverse.
Other forcings obviously work. Over the longer time frames the Sun heating up is the dominant climate forcing.
https://www.geosociety.org/gsatoday/archive/14/3/pdf/i1052-5173-14-3-4.pdf
(astrophysics nerds, as it burns hydrogen into helium, the helium is much more dense so the core gets denser and burns faster).
Royer 2004 compares the slow warming of the Sun with the CO2 feedback to show that CO2 and the Sun explain most of the long term changes.
tldnr, human CO2 has disrupted long term cycles.
Aye, I’m sure we all really believe that science can accurate state temperature trends from 12000 years ago. They simply travelled back in time with their thermometers.
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30 minutes ago, Steve_Wilkos said:
"look at this funny "me me", darling"
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2 minutes ago, craigkillie said:
Again, they didn't "confidently predict" it, they said it had a 50% chance of happening, which is literally the least confident any prediction of 40 degree heat could be.I think 50% was a revised prediction today. Wasn’t it?
Prior to this it was confidently predicted.0 -
6 minutes ago, MrWorldwideJr said:
I see we've switched gear smoothly from claiming there will be no records broken today and the Met Office have embarrassed themselves by predicting it straight to the fact that there has been a record broken today is irrelevent and the Met Office have embarrassed themselves by pointing it out.
I think we went from there will be no 40 degrees as predicted to posting an image of the Met Office claiming 95% certainty or records being broken in England and Wales to a “provisional” breaking of a record in Wales by a massive 0.1 of a degree.
Do try to keep up.
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Met Office now claiming that Wales has “provisionally” broken its record, by 0.1 of a degree. This previous record was set in 1990.
So 2 very hot days at the height of summer, 32 years apart. How terrifying.
Must have been the “hole in the Ozone layer” causing it back then and then everyone getting new fridges and changing their deodorant has held back the tide.
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16 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:
But that's not what I'm saying.
I'm merely questioning the bizarrely strident cases some are making about us not having any obligations towards loved ones.
Mostly people have good reasons for the positions they take. They may not be universally applicable, but so what?
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Just in case anyone says it’s the media and not the Met Office. 2pm nearly and no records broken yet so as far as today goes they have about 1 hour. Bet it doesn’t happen tomorrow either.
40 appears to be off the table after all.
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12 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:
That's correct.
Clearly we need to either behave like the Mitchells or feel no bonds or ties at all. There can be no alternatives.
Good point.
Clearly we must have no love whatsoever for our families or families must hold one another in obligation and duty, like a marriage, but one people haven’t chosen.
There can be no middle way.
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1 hour ago, Monkey Tennis said:
Some excellent drivel in evidence about family members owing each other absolutely nothing.
Even Thatcher acknowledged that such obligations exist. It was just society that apparently didn't.
It’s not Eastenders.
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1 minute ago, TheScarf said:
The hottest temperature I've ever been in is 37 degrees and it honestly didn't feel any hotter than 23/24 like it is just now in Inverness. Folk on Twitter are acting as if this is their last day on Earth.
It’s the absolute thirst for attention. They want to make everything about them, including the weather.
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26 minutes ago, coprolite said:
They've quite clearly said that there's a 50% chance according to their models.
That means there's also a 50% chance that temperatures won't reach 40.
There's a reason they call it a forecast and not a prediction.
There's a standard pattern.
Boffin gives dry factual information about output of model heavily caveated.
Journalist picks up extreme scenario for good copy.
Sub editor picks extremes out of extreme scenario for sensationalist headline.
Public reads headline.
When extreme scenario fails to materialise, public blames boffin.
People have enough of experts.
50% likelihood is a new position is it not? And don’t the Met Office have a record consisting almost exclusively of abject failure?0 -
3 minutes ago, coprolite said:
"Some models are now producing a 50% chance of maximum temperatures in excess of 40°C in isolated parts of the UK for the start of next week. Mid, to high, 30s Celsius will be seen more widely with an 80% chance we will exceed the current record."
Egg everywhere.
I did say this to my Spring Bride back when all this 40 degree chat started.
Met Office talking shite again. What a track record they have in just being wrong over and over and over again.
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I bet 40 degrees won’t be breached after all. Met Office left with egg on its face once again.
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6 minutes ago, BFTD said:
The answer will be, "be rich", with an edgelord slice of, "I'd rather top myself than be a burden".
Self-aggrandising fantasy bollocks, in other words.
Well, I’d definitely rather be a burden than top myself personally, but to each his own.
it’s not really an either/or though.
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It's getting hot in here!
in The General Nonsense Forum
Posted
You’re a risky claiming that prediction and forecast are not synonymous. Such fragility!