Independence - how would you vote?

[xbl]

Well okay, if it makes you happy. I guess you've needed some good news. Although that picture Chris posted up seems to paint a very different picture. Or are you pretending that doesn't exist?

Slightly disappointing that we haven't continued to gain from our apparent 23% low, but not the end of the world. ill be interested to see the story behind this one.

[~~~]

It does lead to the spectre of first minister Lamont in 2016......

Some things you shouldn't joke about

[H_B]

Ipsos Mori always show a higher trend in Nos than other polling agencies, however, there is no reason not to treat these numbers as gospel for the moment. In terms of the longer Ipsos trends, it doesn't seem as huge a shift as when seen in isolation to their last one three months ago.

Yes, as I've said before it doesn't really matter what individual polls have the percentages at. Another one tomorrow could be closer to 35% Yes and 50% No. The issue for the Nats is that they have zero momentum. People just aren't buying their campaign, despite all the desperate "I met 15,432 No voters at the weekend and now they are ALL voting Yes!!!!!!!" stuff from the activists on here.

It's all academic anyway. We know No will win. Everyone knows that. It's just the scale of the defeat for Yes and how that leaves things.

[xbl]

Ipsos Mori always show a higher trend in Nos than other polling agencies, however, there is no reason not to treat these numbers as gospel for the moment. In terms of the longer Ipsos trends, it doesn't seem as huge a shift as when seen in isolation to their last one three months ago.

However, there is a load more fascinating stuff in there under the headline:

Labour leads the SNP 38/37% in the Holyrood voting intention, although that turns into a 36/39 amongst those certain to vote.

Alex salmonds favourable/unfavourable is down to + 2, whereas Johann Lamont's is at +5 (down from +8, but I was shocked that she'd be in positive figures at all), Darling's is down at -2 for some reason.

It would appear that the labour vote is back, probably dragged up by the UK polls. It does lead to the spectre of first minister Lamont in 2016......

Isnt that something like a 15% change in the snp vote from the previous poll? Those are very suspicious numbers!

[renton]

Just to check, what would have been a "big" movement?

It's hugely amusing watching you try to pretend that this isn't a disaster for you after your rhetoric of the other day.

Yes -3

No +4

That's a huge movement.

be fair, if you take the numbers from the 7 polls that Chris posted you see the following trends, the yes vote varies by: +3,+1,-4,-5,+4,-3. The No vote varies by: -3,-7,+5,+3,-3,+4.

In terms of Ipsos Mori polls, it's pretty much a standard swing.

[the jambo-rocker]

Isnt that something like a 15% change in the snp vote from the previous poll? Those are very suspicious numbers!

Especially when you consider Lamont's meltdown only happened a couple of weeks ago...

[renton]

Isnt that something like a 15% change in the snp vote from the previous poll? Those are very suspicious numbers!

SNP was up at 45% in February in the Holyrood polls

[renton]

Yes, as I've said before it doesn't really matter what individual polls have the percentages at. Another one tomorrow could be closer to 35% Yes and 50% No. The issue for the Nats is that they have zero momentum. People just aren't buying their campaign, despite all the desperate "I met 15,432 No voters at the weekend and now they are ALL voting Yes!!!!!!!" stuff from the activists on here.

It's all academic anyway. We know No will win. Everyone knows that. It's just the scale of the defeat for Yes and how that leaves things.

Actually, I'd say that's the most academic part of the whole thing, we know exactly what will happen in the event of a No vote: Beyond the current intentions of the Scotland act 2016, to introduce some tax raising powers, precisely nothing will happen. Westminster will consider the issue dead and buried, there will be no impetus, even in the event of a close No vote, to placate scotland with any semblance of further devolution. It'll be the status quo from then on out. The Tories don't care for devolution even in it's current form, the scottish labour MPs have already made thier position on further devolution extremely clear. The Lib dems are no longer a force in national politics. It'll certainly be the end of the road for a generation at least.

[Ad Lib]

I agree that polls mean nothing, but since xbl specifically set them up and said that there would be no evidence of SNP incompetence on transition questions reducing the level of support for a Yes vote, I'd be interested to know what he thinks caused the above margin for error swing away from Yes between February and May.

[xbl]

be fair, if you take the numbers from the 7 polls that Chris posted you see the following trends, the yes vote varies by: +3,+1,-4,-5,+4,-3. The No vote varies by: -3,-7,+5,+3,-3,+4.

In terms of Ipsos Mori polls, it's pretty much a standard swing.

So as I pointed out before, despite it being the "worst" week, with the unionists using everything they had, it really made very little difference?

[H_B]

Actually, I'd say that's the most academic part of the whole thing, we know exactly what will happen in the event of a No vote: Beyond the current intentions of the Scotland act 2016, to introduce some tax raising powers, precisely nothing will happen.

I don't think it's true at all to say the scale of the SNP's defeat makes no difference. If they are thoroughly thrashed, then that is very different from losing by 0.2% say.

One ends it for a generation or more, the other invites another referendum much sooner than that, and gives the SNP much greater bargaining power in any relationship with Westminster.

[xbl]

I agree that polls mean nothing, but since xbl specifically set them up and said that there would be no evidence of SNP incompetence on transition questions reducing the level of support for a Yes vote, I'd be interested to know what he thinks caused the above margin for error swing away from Yes between February and May.

What is the margin for error anyway?

[Ad Lib]

I don't think it's true at all to say the scale of the SNP's defeat makes no difference. If they are thoroughly thrashed, then that is very different from losing by 0.2% say.

One ends it for a generation or more, the other invites another referendum much sooner than that, and gives the SNP much greater bargaining power in any relationship with Westminster.

I'm not convinced that there will be further meaningful draw-down of powers (whether by devolution or other means) in the event of a No vote, but for anyone who seriously wants more powers, even a 60:40 vote in No's favour puts far more pressure on than 65:35. 55:45 would make it very difficult for the UK not at least to have some sort of constitutional convention, even if it's a UK-wide one to reconsider the structure of devolution.

[H_B]

The "managing the defeat" phase of the SNP campaign must be due to kick in at some point early 2014.

I wonder if they have told the shoe leather brigade earnestly chapping on doors yet.

[xbl]

I don't think it's true at all to say the scale of the SNP's defeat makes no difference. If they are thoroughly thrashed, then that is very different from losing by 0.2% say.

One ends it for a generation or more, the other invites another referendum much sooner than that, and gives the SNP much greater bargaining power in any relationship with Westminster.

You mean like in 1979? Utter pish. Any defeat at all ends devolution. The only thing the snp have is the threat of independence. Without that, then id expect to see devolution reversed somewhat. Certainly there will be no more scraps to appease us.

[xbl]

I'm not convinced that there will be further meaningful draw-down of powers (whether by devolution or other means) in the event of a No vote, but for anyone who seriously wants more powers, even a 60:40 vote in No's favour puts far more pressure on than 65:35. 55:45 would make it very difficult for the UK not at least to have some sort of constitutional convention, even if it's a UK-wide one to reconsider the structure of devolution.

1979.

[Ad Lib]

What is the margin for error anyway?

Standard margin for error in UK political polling methodologies tends to be between 1 and 3%. I'd be surprised if the margin were greater in this case.

[renton]

I don't think it's true at all to say the scale of the SNP's defeat makes no difference. If they are thoroughly thrashed, then that is very different from losing by 0.2% say.

One ends it for a generation or more, the other invites another referendum much sooner than that, and gives the SNP much greater bargaining power in any relationship with Westminster.

Not really, because it would depend on the SNP gaining a further mandate in 2016 to push for a further referendum. Which is probably unlikely given our electoral system. Until there is at least another major party that supports independence, which apart from building in a much better chance of a parliamentary majority in favour of the notion, but would add more wieght to the idea of independence itself, then this would seem to the only shot at it.

[xbl]

Just to check with the unionists and apologists, we saw no devolution after the 1979 referendum. How much did we lose that by?

[DeeGas]

Whatever the result of the referendum,i think it should take a lot of people shouting before it happens again.

We can't have a tiny percent of Britain threatening the whole country every 5 minutes.