Bitcoin/cryptocurrency thread

[DiegoDiego]

The vast majority of crypto millionaires simply bought before the bus left the station. I wish you all the best of luck.
 

I don't have the actual stats to hand but I really don't think that's true. Bitcoin began twelve years ago. £10,000 put into bitcoin five years ago (roughly when I first met someone who had bought in, an accountant at a bottle factory in Istanbul) would now be worth over a million.

Again, you're twisting the point I'm making. Crypto investing is the same as stock investing. If you're the sort who loves looking at graphs, researching companies, and has a solid understanding of markets then yes, have fun geeking out. If not, fine. Invest in a tracker or a couple of blue chips and forget about it for 99% of the time.

[Detournement]

11 hours ago, Kapowzer said:

OK, but I don't get why you're in here throwing shade, you must really hate a Casualty/Jonathan Ross combo.

It's a unique situation where the fraud has been exposed in detail yet huge numbers of people genuinely don't think Tether being worthless will have an impact on them. 

It's interesting to observe/follow.

[DiegoDiego]

It's a unique situation where the fraud has been exposed in detail yet huge numbers of people genuinely don't think Tether being worthless will have an impact on them. 
It's interesting to observe/follow.

Can someone give Detournetable a nudge, I think the record's stuck.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Maybe not that precise post. [emoji38] But here's a hopefully more reliable link to a thread where readers might find it's not always wise to take investment advice from P&B.
https://www.pieandbovril.com/forum/index.php?/topic/65352-panic-merchants/#comments

H_B and Northern Rock is pure P&B Gold.

[iron mike python]

3 hours ago, IrishBhoy said:

Has anyone came across this new breed of guys that think they are crypto experts after watching a few YouTube videos and sticking a grand into SHIB the day after it’s reached it’s all time high? There seems to be more and more appearing. 
 

A few new guys have started in my work and they literally have their phones in their hand with whatever trading platform they are using open 24/7, watching every rise and fall on a minute by minute basis. They sit and talk amongst themselves saying things like ‘I’m going to jump on X coin’ or ‘X coin is about to fly because…’.
 

Ive done a fair bit of research into cryptocurrencies, helped by a few posters on here, and I would say I have a pretty solid understanding of it, and the technology that surrounds it. I am most certainly not an expert though and the last thing I would be doing is sitting in my work advising colleagues on financial decisions.

One of the guys asked me if I’m ‘into crypto’ and I just said no. That’s not me being snooty, I just can’t sit and have a conversation with people so ignorant but have the confidence of Gary Vaynerchuk. 

In a bull market like we are just now, (and will continue to be for a few more months) these guys will probably get louder and louder but they will disappear during the bear market. Same will happen in this thread.

At one point 2 years from now this thread will only be Detournement laughing at me because I am saying "I am in it for the tech" because all the coins are down >80% from current value, as I desperately claim that I sold into stable coins at the top.

The talk about crypto in real life is tough, very rarely you will meet someone who is into the same part of crypto as you are. I think you did the right thing. That is why it is important for me to have the Telegram/discord groups to talk about these crypto subcommunities and also why I like this thread (when it isn't being spammed by no coiner negativity.)

[Fraser Fyvie]

-80% from current value would mean a 12k BTC/sub 1k ETH, doubt we ever see that again tbh. Maybe -80% from a blow-off top though even that's a stretch.

Edited November 7, 2021 by Fraser Fyvie

[gaz5]

-80% from current value would mean a 12k BTC/sub 1k ETH, doubt we ever see that again tbh. Maybe -80% from a blow-off top though even that's a stretch.

Has been 80-85% drawdown on BTC at the end of every cycle, after the blowoff (90-95% on the Alts).

I fully expect this time to follow, because "it'll be different this time" is a dangerous viewpoint if you're the one left holding the bag. [emoji846]

I plan on exiting everything when my top triggers flash, on both the way up and the way down.

Then I'll start buying again when BTC bounces on this cycles 1.618 fib, which has marked the bottom in every previous market. I think the bear will be shorter time wise, as the bull phase is lengthening cycle on cycle.

I spent about a month pouring over the cycle chart back to 2011 to get some confluence.

[DiegoDiego]

-80% from current value would mean a 12k BTC/sub 1k ETH, doubt we ever see that again tbh. Maybe -80% from a blow-off top though even that's a stretch.

I doubt that as well but I'm still preparing for the likelihood.

I'm almost at the point where I'd take a 20% drop in ETH price if it meant a return to the days of single digit gwai gas fees.

[Fraser Fyvie]

5 minutes ago, gaz5 said:

Has been 80-85% drawdown on BTC at the end of every cycle, after the blowoff (90-95% on the Alts).

I fully expect this time to follow, because "it'll be different this time" is a dangerous viewpoint if you're the one left holding the bag.

I plan on exiting everything when my top triggers flash, on both the way up and the way down.

Then I'll start buying again when BTC bounces on this cycles 1.618 fib, which has marked the bottom in every previous market. I think the bear will be shorter time wise, as the bull phase is lengthening cycle on cycle.

I spent about a month pouring over the cycle chart back to 2011 to get some confluence.

Not sure how it falling from $30 to $5 (or whatever it was) in 2011 is relevant to today's market tbh. Just as dangerous to assume something's going to happen exactly as it did last time. Clearly its still going to be volatile but makes sense to be less so than when it was a much smaller and less mature market. I'll still sell a decent amount if/when we get parabolic moves though.

[gaz5]

Not sure how it falling from $30 to $5 (or whatever it was) in 2011 is relevant to today's market tbh. Just as dangerous to assume something's going to happen exactly as it did last time. Clearly its still going to be volatile but makes sense to be less so than when it was a much smaller and less mature market. I'll still sell a decent amount if/when we get parabolic moves though.

I would agree with you, if it had only done things once, because that's an isolated incident.

But it's done the same thing, the macro market structure all 3 times has been exactly the same and is following exactly the same for all major milestones thus far in 2021.

That's a pattern.

Don't take my word for it though, pull up BLX on trading view and throw a fib on from top to bottom of every cycle with the RSI indicator on.

You'll find:

2013: Broke 1.272, mid cycle correction between 1.272 and 1.618, retested 1.272 in July, topped in December at second RSI peak, dropped to the 1.618 as cycle bottom.

2017: Broke 1.272, mid cycle correction between 1.272 and 1.618, retested 1.272 in July, topped in December at second RSI peak, dropped to the 1.618 as cycle bottom.

2021: Broke 1.272, mid cycle correction between 1.272 and 1.618, retested 1.272 in July, climbing towards December.

Could be complete coincidence I guess that 2 cycles were identical macro wise and the third has hit the first 3 of 6 milestones. [emoji846]

ETA: I'm not tied 100% to this, just one of the plans I have till it's invalidated. Playing the probabilities based on data we have.

[Munter]

10 minutes ago, Fraser Fyvie said:

Not sure how it falling from $30 to $5 (or whatever it was) in 2011 is relevant to today's market tbh. Just as dangerous to assume something's going to happen exactly as it did last time. 

Been in crypto for 7 years and the only lesson learnt is don’t ever assume anything! 
 

I also tend not to speak to others about it unless they already have a similar level of interest and depth of knowledge. Would feel pretty low if someone lost money they can’t afford because of something I told them.

[DiegoDiego]

I also tend not to speak to others about it unless they already have a similar level of interest and depth of knowledge. Would feel pretty low if someone lost money they can’t afford because of something I told them.

I speak to folk about it but I always tell them not to risk money they can't afford to lose and to do their own research. If they ignore that advice, that's on them.

Since I started in crypto I've only met one other person I know of who has any.

[Kapowzer]

15 hours ago, welshbairn said:

So long as everyone explains the risks and complexity, fair enough, and I'll retreat to my home in the gambling forum, offering terrible tips..

I hope the irony of this hasn't been missed by anyone

[DiegoDiego]

I plan on exiting everything when my top triggers flash, on both the way up and the way down.

Out of curiosity, what do you plan on exiting into? GBP, equities, gold, timeshares in Fife, stablecoins, perhaps even Dr. Tether, so misunderstood/what's the worst that could happen?

[gaz5]

Out of curiosity, what do you plan on exiting into? GBP, equities, gold, timeshares in Fife, stablecoins, perhaps even Dr. Tether, so misunderstood/what's the worst that could happen?

Definitely not timeshares in Fife. [emoji1787]

Majority I plan to exit into USDC.

I'll take out what I need to pay tax and a little bit to spend, stake some and short BTC (from a .701 retrace rejection) with some.

[Detournement]

2 hours ago, gaz5 said:

Definitely not timeshares in Fife.

Majority I plan to exit into USDC.

I'll take out what I need to pay tax and a little bit to spend, stake some and short BTC (from a .701 retrace rejection) with some.

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2021/10/05/sec-subpoenas-usdc-stablecoin-backer-circle/

USDC is up to $36 billion and under investigation by the US government. 

You might be wise to avoid it. 

[DiegoDiego]

I'm thinking about coins which might be a hedge to a crash. If people are cashing out their BTC/ETH into stablecoins then as demand for TerraUSD increases the value of LUNA should also increase as LUNA is burnt to create new TerraUSD.

Another possibility is OlympusDAO, whose token OHM is designed as a store of value, backed by DAI so always >=$1, but currently trading at about £650 as people are paying a premium to get in early while yeilds are still ridiculous (8,000%APY with runway for a year). It's designed to give holders value through staking rather than the price of the token.

It's taken me long enough to get my head around it (though their FAQ is excellent) so I'm not sure what would happen to its value in a market crash (or Terra's really, kinda thinking out loud here), but it's an interesting proposition.

[gaz5]

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2021/10/05/sec-subpoenas-usdc-stablecoin-backer-circle/
USDC is up to $36 billion and under investigation by the US government. 
You might be wise to avoid it. 

It's the safer bet over Tether and BUSD IMO. At least it's been audited in terms of the assets backing the peg and the SEC investigation is linked to their plans to go public AFAIK, rather than the USDC coin itself.

That and the SEC are all over the map at the moment in terms of crypto enforcement actions (I've dialled into all the Ripple case hearings). They can't even agree among themselves, when you look at the comments of Gensler Vs Pearce just as an example. The office must be fun with those two as she basically says the polar opposite of everything he does. [emoji846]

Ultimately, all stable coins are a risk though, which is why I'll not put all my eggs in that basket. I'll have a proportion in USDC to earn passive income during the bear market, but not the whole farm.

[gaz5]

I'm thinking about coins which might be a hedge to a crash.

There are none.

The hedge for the crypto crash is and always has been fiat.

[Zetterlund]

48 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

I'm thinking about coins which might be a hedge to a crash. If people are cashing out their BTC/ETH into stablecoins then as demand for TerraUSD increases the value of LUNA should also increase as LUNA is burnt to create new TerraUSD.

Another possibility is OlympusDAO, whose token OHM is designed as a store of value, backed by DAI so always >=$1, but currently trading at about £650 as people are paying a premium to get in early while yeilds are still ridiculous (8,000%APY with runway for a year). It's designed to give holders value through staking rather than the price of the token.

It's taken me long enough to get my head around it (though their FAQ is excellent) so I'm not sure what would happen to its value in a market crash (or Terra's really, kinda thinking out loud here), but it's an interesting proposition.

I'm in OHM and also TIME and KLIMA which use a similar model. Nobody can know how this type of project will perform in a crash or extended bear market, but the thinking among holders seems to be that price doesn't matter if you're holding long term. In theory, if the coin price drops the APY should rise so it may be an attractive place to keep funds. Interestingly, the TIME price and APY have both been rising so there must be other factors in play. It's still very early for these projects though.