If Scotland Votes Naw.

[renton]

In general people voted with their pockets, its why yes did well in Glasgow and Dundee - where the 'vote yes to save the NHS' message, for example, seemed to resonate more than Aberdeen and Edinburgh.

Never mind that it's turned out to be crock of shit.

That's an incredibly shallow interpretation of the results. It wasn't even necessarily income levels that in part made people's minds up - at least not until you reached the very high percentiles for income - rather it was wealth. Homeowners (and estate owners) were more likely to be No voters than those who rented, for example - and that probably reflected the No campaigns drum banging on deficits and interest rates, but it also ignores the curious demographic make up of Edinburgh, for example where there is a large rUK and international student community (bare in mind rUK voters split 80/20 for No and EU citizens went 65/35 for No) as well as a concentration of rUK citizens, and a financial district that was moderately disinterested at best to cheerleading No at worst (for example, Standard Life who threatened to walk out on Scotland - just as they previously had in '79 and '97).

What's interesting about all that is that in terms of margins, No had a built in electoral advantage. The majority of the 400,000 odd rUK born residents were never going to vote Yes, and the EU residents were never going to put their residency at risk. Beyond that you are looking at a near enough 50/50 split (indeed, the Scots born/Scots resident only demogaphics was 53/47 for Yes according to studies from Edinburgh Uni) . Younger scots demographics voted Yes, older ones shaded to No - and while there is a strong correlation with wealth (rather than income) as you push up the age brackets, it's by no means the deciding factor. If it was you'd expect a cliff edge where Yes leads became dominant No leads - and it does turn decisively No beyond the 40-49 age bracket, but this is probably too old to be the wealth factor (at least in terms of home owning which should kick in by the 30-39 bracket). Also it actually gets more No-centric the older you get, even after you've plateaud in terms of your exposure to material risk in terms of mortages and pensions.

This says to me that there is undoubtedly a historical/romantic factor that older voters associate with the UK. The closer you are to the 50s, the more likely you were to be born in the One Nation UK, the stronger your memories are likely to be of the generation that pulled together to fight the war, the more likely you were to see the UK as a genuine progressive force for good. Anyone born post 79 probably has a very different concept of the UK, or at least Westminster as a force for good in the lives of Scots. That's not to deny the wealth aspect played a role, but I'd say the historical demogrpahic factor also played a significant role.

There is no doubt the Yes campaign needed something different for Edinburgh at the very least as well, some way of selling material gains as a real capital instead of the pretendy tourist trap that it is often taken for.

[Gordon EF]

I'm sure sparky knows this, at some level at least. He'd just like to believe No voters used their heads and Yes voters used their hearts.

[1320Lichtie]

Renton with a superb post as per usual on the subject. One of my favourite posters throughout the entire campaigning process.

[sparky88]

I'm sure sparky knows this, at some level at least. He'd just like to believe No voters used their heads and Yes voters used their hearts.

Plenty of yes voters voted with their heads too. Like I said, if I was told that there was a chance I'd have to pay for my healthcare if I voted no (a central plank of the yes campaign) and I thought I might not be able to afford it, I might be swayed towards yes. Similarly voting yes was probably as close to a guarantee of some public sector jobs being safeguarded. Neither side had the monopoly on emotional or logical arguments.

[renton]

You can look at it even in very basic terrms:

Scots born-Scots residents (Yes/No) 53/47

rUK born-Scots residents (Yes/No) 20/80

Those are two groups who are definitely not looking at the issue from the same view point. Matters of finance tend to be universal, and certainly wouldn't have any strong correlations down demographics of nationality by birth. So if financial arguments were the one dominant factor in the referendum you'd expect a similar breakdown across both groups. There is very clearly another set of criteria infuencing that divergence between groups and it's almost certainly identity based.

[Gordon EF]

Plenty of yes voters voted with their heads too. Like I said, if I was told that there was a chance I'd have to pay for my healthcare if I voted no (a central plank of the yes campaign) and I thought I might not be able to afford it, I might be swayed towards yes. Similarly voting yes was probably as close to a guarantee of some public sector jobs being safeguarded. Neither side had the monopoly on emotional or logical arguments.

Fair enough, but it's also fairly disingenuous to try and portray it as a rich vs poor split. BT put a huge effort and succeeded in convincing poor pensioners that their pensions were in danger if there was a Yes vote (is that something you consider to be a "crock of shit").

Besides, renton's torn your argument to pieces anyway.

[kevthedee]

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/644088/Not-again-Scots-oppose-independence-vote

Lots of interesting figures in this latest poll,think it shows the people have no appetite for any more votes in the next 5 years at least.

Note the 46% who thought another vote would be bad for business and the economy and the 47% who said we would have been worse off being independant.

The SNP like to say the people will decide when the time is right for another vote,lets see if they are watching.

[Glenn Medeiros]

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/644088/Not-again-Scots-oppose-independence-vote

Lots of interesting figures in this latest poll,think it shows the people have no appetite for any more votes in the next 5 years at least.

Note the 46% who thought another vote would be bad for business and the economy and the 47% who said we would have been worse off being independant.

The SNP like to say the people will decide when the time is right for another vote,lets see if they are watching.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/644088/Not-again-Scots-oppose-independence-vote

Lots of interesting figures in this latest poll,think it shows the people have no appetite for any more votes in the next 5 years at least.

Note the 46% who thought another vote would be bad for business and the economy and the 47% who said we would have been worse off being independant.

The SNP like to say the people will decide when the time is right for another vote,lets see if they are watching.

54% are not against another poll.

53% polled do not think we'd be worse off independent

Given that this poll was funded by No voting nutters, can you link me to the actual YouGov data sets ?

[Kyle]

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/644088/Not-again-Scots-oppose-independence-vote

Lots of interesting figures in this latest poll,think it shows the people have no appetite for any more votes in the next 5 years at least.

Note the 46% who thought another vote would be bad for business and the economy and the 47% who said we would have been worse off being independant.

The SNP like to say the people will decide when the time is right for another vote,lets see if they are watching.

SNP response to the article;

However, an SNP spokesman said yesterday: “Scotland’s referendum was a positive, engaging experience which boosted the country’s global profile.

“Which is why, in 2014, Scotland was the most successful part of the UK outside London at attracting inward investment.

“The SNP has always been clear that the timing of any future referendum is entirely a matter for the people of Scotland to decide – the people, not the politicians, are in charge at every stage of the process.

“The question this unionist organisation should really be asking is why every poll conducted since the referendum has shown an increase in support for independence.”

The only people still banging on about the referendum are the ones who 'won' it.

I'd be stunned if a referendum promise was in the SNP's manifesto. There will be something woolly about material change required and they still support independence (which they obviously do, and always will do) but I don't think it's anything that people need to worry about right now.

[RedRob72]

36% supporting another referendum, hardly a groundswell in demand to go again soon is it?

[Mr Rational]

Let's see if the numbers jump up if England votes to pull us out of Europe.

[Gordon EF]

36% supporting another referendum, hardly a groundswell in demand to go again soon is it?

46% don't want one. Which means at least 9% of the population voted No but are still open to the idea of another referendum within 5 years.

Very encouraging.

[Crossbill]

Most people who want independence do not want another referendum until we can be sure of winning it. Only serious optimists are convinced that we can reach that position within the next 5 years. Within the next 10 years though, that is another proposition altogether.

[Antlion]

Most people who want independence do not want another referendum until we can be sure of winning it. Only serious optimists are convinced that we can reach that position within the next 5 years. Within the next 10 years though, that is another proposition altogether.

This. The demands for another referendum now (or UDI, even more annoyingly) are frustrating. It's up to those who support independence to make the case for why being a minor region of a state governed from outside Scotland is bad for Scotland, and when that case begins to be dominant, to then have it demonstrated by telling our representatives to give us a referendum.

[Mr Rational]

I would prefer one in 10-15 years, preferably after a run of Tory governments and a few bad winters.

[Granny Danger]

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/644088/Not-again-Scots-oppose-independence-vote

Lots of interesting figures in this latest poll,think it shows the people have no appetite for any more votes in the next 5 years at least.

Note the 46% who thought another vote would be bad for business and the economy and the 47% who said we would have been worse off being independant.

The SNP like to say the people will decide when the time is right for another vote,lets see if they are watching.

It's important that we look at a poll commissioned by a pro-Unionist group and published in the Express. It's bound to be correct as polls are never wrong.

[Kejan]

I don't know which option is best and a referendum in five years is possibly a bit too optimistic, but in saying that, ten-fifteen years is as just a big gamble. Whilst the SNP should probably win in May, 5 years is a long time, and in 2021 that will have been 14 years of an SNP government - and there surely will be some discontent after such a long time power.

Mind you, the opposition are utterly hopeless, the SNP could well be on 70% of the vote by then.

Interesting times.

Dorlomin, you had to have been on the randan last night.

Scotland is insignificant in international terms. Holyrood has less power than many European regions and even some provincial councils.

'Our warrior spirit' - eh? Aye, but we stoat about in kilts now and again pishing in people's gardens, and have a fitba team - so we must be a nation. I've been to a few places since the referendum and don't actively bring it up or my nationality, but especially in Iceland and Belgium, the ones who did were bemused at the No vote.

Heck, you can't even a Scotland flag on whatsapp. Yet, there's the British Indian Ocean Territory's one.

[NotThePars]

Making any concrete statements on when or if the next vote should be held is fucking stupid tbf. Either for or against holding one.

[Crùbag]

Most people who want independence do not want another referendum until we can be sure of winning it. Only serious optimists are convinced that we can reach that position within the next 5 years. Within the next 10 years though, that is another proposition altogether.

This. Though the EU ref could sway things big time.

In the meantime, our parli will be controlled by pro-Indy parties.

Anyway, like him or loath him, he's not wrong here:

Wings Over Scotland ‏@WingsScotland Jan 20

Steel jobs - gone. Oil jobs - gone. Renewables - slashed. Pensions - doomed. The only thing the No vote actually saved was David Cameron.

[RedRob72]

46% don't want one. Which means at least 9% of the population voted No but are still open to the idea of another referendum within 5 years.

Very encouraging.

The research quoted in the Herald also reported that only 10% of those who participated said that a 2nd Ref was an immediate priority!

Perhaps less encouraging