Colkitto Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 They were not "drastically wrong". The actual levels of support for the SNP increased dramatically between March and May. Every poll reflected this. There were no major changes to methodology or sampling in that 2 month period. People just changed their minds. Which if you remember the actual political context, seems very credible. Labour's vote collapsed in the wake of poor TV debates, an absolute shoeing in the press through, among other things, Subwaygate, and a massively negative campaign which nobody really bought into. They gave Labour a 44% lead weeks before the election. Labour ended up on 31.6% of the vote. That's getting it drastically wrong in my book. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Which misses the point. Not surprisingly. Still, good to see you back discussing polls again after the utter humiliation you suffered last summer on the issue. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 They gave Labour a 44% lead weeks before the election. Labour ended up on 31.6% of the vote. That's getting it drastically wrong in my book. 1. No they didn't give Labour a 44% lead. 2. The purpose of polls isn't in isolation to predict a result. It is to give a snapshot of public opinion and to track changes in it over time. When a poll is taken in March asking about voting intention for an election in May it is not trying, from its own figures in isolation, to tell you how the vote will go in May. It is showing you what kind of swing is likely to be required to produce a particular result, and, in context with the polls by the same methodology and company before and after it, to provide an indication as to what if any swing is actually occurring. TNS' poll was therefore not "wrong" in early March 2011. If anything it merely served to provide a marker against which all subsequent swing took place. Observe that TNS were the first polling company save an Ipsos Mori one in February 2011 to put the SNP even within the margin of error of the popular vote over a 15 month period before the election. They called the swing first. They had all the win. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Yes Scotland has published a monthly average poll of polls which includes the TNS figures - and shows that the gap between Yes and No has halved from 24 points last November to 12 points in March. WOW! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 In fact if the trend continues!!!! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 My goodness, Ad Lib, the Falkirk twosome amd He who should not be named are a tiresome little bunch aren't they? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 My goodness, Ad Lib, the Falkirk twosome amd He who should not be named are a tiresome little bunch aren't they? Don't be so harsh. Ad lib is a passionate Yes voter so he is 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 In fact if the trend continues!!!! Don't try and put trendlines on polling data, there is no underlying physics available to be able to predict ahead, and therefore any future trend is highly speculative at best, it could quite as easily slow down, speed up, reverse itself or bottom out. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Don't try and put trendlines on polling data, there is no underlying physics available to be able to predict ahead, and therefore any future trend is highly speculative at best, it could quite as easily slow down, speed up, reverse itself or bottom out. Quite. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 In fact if the trend continues!!!! Ah, the arcofprosperity returns! Always good to see that get a run out. Decisive Yes victory is certainly likely. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BerwickMad Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I agree with Oaksoft. A No vote is ABSOLUTELY saying you have no confidence in Scotland governing her own affairs and you'd rather continue to be shafted by Westminster. Might be a harsh truth, but a truth nonetheless. It's not the truth though is it? People may believe Scotland can manage it's own affairs, but they may think their affairs are better managed as part of the UK than by an independent Scotland. They may not believe they're being shafted by the current system. You could use your argument for any group of people or any geographical location. It's nationalist nonsense. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 It's not the truth though is it? People may believe Scotland can manage it's own affairs, but they may think their affairs are better managed as part of the UK than by an independent Scotland. They may not believe they're being shafted by the current system. You could use your argument for any group of people or any geographical location. It's nationalist nonsense. How anyone can think their affairs are best managed by other people where their own voices are incidental, rather than integral to the decision making process is beyond me. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BerwickMad Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 How anyone can think their affairs are best managed by other people where their own voices are incidental, rather than integral to the decision making process is beyond me. That's fair enough, you have a different opinion to them. But I doubt all 'no' voters think Scotland can't manage their own affairs. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 How anyone can think their affairs are best managed by other people where their own voices are incidental, rather than integral to the decision making process is beyond me. Why do you think that the rest of the UK are "other people" but representatives of other parts of Scotland are not "other people"? Scottish representatives are integral to the decision-making processes of the UK. Anyone who suggests otherwise is willfully setting a double-standard on Westminster c.f. Holyrood or making an argument not for Scottish independence but decision-making so localised as to preclude most of what the EU has done in the last 2 decades and for decentralisation considerably further than Bute House. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
banterman86 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 How anyone can think their affairs are best managed by other people where their own voices are incidental, rather than integral to the decision making process is beyond me. That pre-supposes that scotland speaks with "one voice". it doesn't. there are a range of socio-economic factors at play which cut across demographics, and sees shared interests amongst different people all over the UK. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 That's fair enough, you have a different opinion to them. But I doubt all 'no' voters think Scotland can't manage their own affairs. Not the point, the point is that maintaining the UK system at present means that Scottish votes are not generally required to inform the composition of government, hence Scotland effectively hands over control of it's affairs to a legislature in which it's own representation is marginal, and unable to influence policy in a meaningful way. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Not the point, the point is that maintaining the UK system at present means that Scottish votes are not generally required to inform the composition of government, hence Scotland effectively hands over control of it's affairs to a legislature in which it's own representation is marginal, and unable to influence policy in a meaningful way. Why then are you ostensibly in favour of the European Parliament passing directives and regulations without the need for a single UK or Scottish MEP voting in support of them? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 That pre-supposes that scotland speaks with "one voice". it doesn't. there are a range of socio-economic factors at play which cut across demographics, and sees shared interests amongst different people all over the UK. Again, not the point. The point is that Scottish votes do not significantly contribute to the composition of any given UK government. If Scotland votes Labour, it only gets a Labour government becuase England voted that way as well, same goes for the Tories. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Why then are you ostensibly in favour of the European Parliament passing directives and regulations without the need for a single UK or Scottish MEP voting in support of them? Who says I am? I recognise that the European free trade zone is something we should be part of, I don't like the European parliament as an organisation and in any case, most important EU stuff is still carried out at an intra-state level. Ultimately there are trade offs in sovereignty. I'd quite like some to have to trade, please. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peteryes Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Landline polls got the last SNP landslide completely. Wrong mainly because schemies like me don't have a Landline. There is almost a revolutionary feel for yes Polorising the issue into almost a class war. I know which side of the barricades I'm.on. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.