Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[H_B]

When I drop my kid off at school I overhear the conversations of no voters. It would actually be really hard not to hear them. Those who speak about voting yes do it in hushed tones. I'm one of them.

Riiiiiiiight.....

(caution - dramatisation - not based on real events)

Edited April 22, 2014 by H_B

[Confidemus]

Riiiiiiiight.....

(caution - dramatisation - not based on real events)

So because his answer doesn't suit your right wing agenda, he's a liar?

Lawlz.

[Mr. Bojangles]

I'd be amazed if I was the only one who has noticed this. I mean, Yes are behind in every poll (though it is getting closer). People are much more likely to be confident that others will agree with them if the side they believe in are regularly shown to be in the lead. The people who are speaking loudly about this always talk loudly about everything, but I've never heard anyone talk loudly about agreeing with anything the yes campaign or the SNP have said. The way those on the yes side find each other, it seems, is by putting out feelers either saying something the yes side have said would be quite nice to have (usually the childcare stuff) or that something Better Together have said is stupid. This is mostly second hand on the cloak and dagger stuff, but I do hear people speaking together as I wait about. My ear p***k up when someone says something about the debate like my dog's if someone mentions food.

If anyone doesn't have kids, let me tell you that dropping off the kids at school is a very surreal experience. The kids all run around playing together until the bell rings and the parents are all expected to stand about and talk together in a very ITV daytime programming way until the bell sets us free. Even then a lot of them hang around setting up coffee mornings together. Little cliques form and you're suddenly transported back to the same drama crap from when you were a kid.

Or maybe that's just the school my kid goes to. Thankfully I don't have to put up with it too often.

My wife has had similar experience at her work, but they have an unofficial "No politics" line, so it only gets brought up very occasionally when someone says they're going to move to Wales or England if there's a yes vote. Everyone else gets uncomfortable and changes the subject. She does know a few of the others are voting yes because of the same cloak and dagger sign and countersign stuff that goes on at my kid's school, but most of them she has no idea.

I work with hardcore right wingers mostly, so I don't expect much. I don't see the point in bringing them up since it's a pretty rare view in Scotland. It's all very open, and there's a lot of the "Fat Salmond" stuff. It might be something like 20% yes to 70% no. I'm doing my best to convert the softer ones, but it's a hard slog.

[ayrmad]

I'd be amazed if I was the only one who has noticed this. I mean, Yes are behind in every poll (though it is getting closer). People are much more likely to be confident that others will agree with them if the side they believe in are regularly shown to be in the lead. The people who are speaking loudly about this always talk loudly about everything, but I've never heard anyone talk loudly about agreeing with anything the yes campaign or the SNP have said. The way those on the yes side find each other, it seems, is by putting out feelers either saying something the yes side have said would be quite nice to have (usually the childcare stuff) or that something Better Together have said is stupid. This is mostly second hand on the cloak and dagger stuff, but I do hear people speaking together as I wait about. My ear p***k up when someone says something about the debate like my dog's if someone mentions food.

If anyone doesn't have kids, let me tell you that dropping off the kids at school is a very surreal experience. The kids all run around playing together until the bell rings and the parents are all expected to stand about and talk together in a very ITV daytime programming way until the bell sets us free. Even then a lot of them hang around setting up coffee mornings together. Little cliques form and you're suddenly transported back to the same drama crap from when you were a kid.

Or maybe that's just the school my kid goes to. Thankfully I don't have to put up with it too often.

My wife has had similar experience at her work, but they have an unofficial "No politics" line, so it only gets brought up very occasionally when someone says they're going to move to Wales or England if there's a yes vote. Everyone else gets uncomfortable and changes the subject. She does know a few of the others are voting yes because of the same cloak and dagger sign and countersign stuff that goes on at my kid's school, but most of them she has no idea.

I work with hardcore right wingers mostly, so I don't expect much. I don't see the point in bringing them up since it's a pretty rare view in Scotland. It's all very open, and there's a lot of the "Fat Salmond" stuff. It might be something like 20% yes to 70% no. I'm doing my best to convert the softer ones, but it's a hard slog.

You obviously haven't met me.

[milton75]

I'd be amazed if I was the only one who has noticed this. I mean, Yes are behind in every poll (though it is getting closer). People are much more likely to be confident that others will agree with them if the side they believe in are regularly shown to be in the lead.

For most of the time up till the last election, we were regularly informed across the spread of polls that Labour were going to beat the SNP - in some cases this was presented as a significant win on the horizon.

In the months up to the election, the polls narrowed, and some polling outlets conceded that it was close.

Not that I'm suggesting deliberate bias or anything, but it seemed curious that such a wealth of "SNP to lose" information was being presented to us, when they in fact went on to win - by a margin that supposedly should not have been at all likely under our system.

So far we have variously been told that:

- There will be no devolved Scottish Parliament

- The SNP will never win

- No party will gain an overall majority.

I personally welcome the negative polling. If the Unionist track record continues with such success in their predictions, I look forward to the result.

[~~~]

Not had a chance to go over it, but enjoy

http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/Scotsman_april_2014.pdf

[Mr Bairn]

Interesting notes

1. Glasgow leaning yes

2. North East, SNP heartland, strongly No

3. Most DKs genuinely not got a clue how theyll vote, but more lean no than yes

[renton]

Interesting notes

1. Glasgow leaning yes

2. North East, SNP heartland, strongly No

3. Most DKs genuinely not got a clue how theyll vote, but more lean no than yes

Mostly the regions look much of a muchness from a purely qualitative point of view - i.e. the south storng no, highlands for yes, Glasgow for yes and Edinburgh split. Central Scotland seems pretty much where some of the yes canvassers said it would be as well.

The two that stand out as anomalies are Mid+Fife and the North East - no way is yes so far behind in it's heartlands, and no way is it ahead in Fife of all places.

On the last point, we have two differnet data points, Panelbase had 39/34/27 y/dk/n amongst undecideds vs. ICM's 14/65/21

Bare in mind that broken down into sub samples, the error becomes greater and thus generally those numbers could be deemed unreliable.

Edited April 22, 2014 by renton

[H_B]

So far we have variously been told that:

- There will be no devolved Scottish Parliament

Really?

Who said this and when?

[renton]

Note also that there is a 14% amongst the Yes/No vote who could change their mind.

The gap between whether respondents believe indy would be good for the economy is not huge and has infact narrowed by 2 points since the last ICM poll to give good/no diff/bad as 37/7/41. There is now a plurality of responents who believe that inequality will reduce in an independent Scotland.

fascinatingly, in the event of a No vote a majority (64%) believes Holyrood should become responsible primarily for "decisions about taxation and welfare" but only 33% think Scotland will get more powers in such an event with 35% (the plurality) thinking it'll stay the same as now and 14% thinking that powers will be reduced.

Q6 is that a double negative in there? Looks like you are being asked if you would vote no if no new powers were forthcoming, but that's maybe just my reading of it.

Q11, looks like the sub sample for England is a bit high - showing 15% against the 9% seen in the census.

Edited April 22, 2014 by renton

[milton75]

Really?

Who said this and when?

It was said umpteen times in the 90s that I recall. Michael Forsyth being one I remember, him being my MP at the time. Pretty sure it was the general consensus, although I've no idea how to demonstrate this unless it comes up in an archived newspaper search or Hansard.

I remember Waldegrave discussing it too.

Edited to add - you can find reference to this being the chat fairly easily.

Revealed: the truth about Michael Forsyth, the Tories and devolution

According to files just released from the National Records of Scotland, Michael Forsyth added that the then government's alternative approach to devolution was "making the problem worse".

Major was firmly against the creation of a parliament in Edinburgh, but believed he had to implement reforms to improve the governance of Scotland.

His post-1992 policies, under the umbrella of "Taking Stock", included a beefed-up role for the Scottish Grand Committee, a body for MPs north of the Border at which they could grill ministers. However, by 1995, opinion polls continued to show support for home rule. The anti-devolutionist Forsyth was appointed in July of that year.

Within weeks, he and leading Scottish Office officials met to discuss the government's constitutional strategy.

Although Whitehall mandarins were pleased with Taking Stock, the minutes of the meeting show Forsyth took the opposite view: "The Secretary of State noted that one of the big problems with the government's position was that it was perceived to be based on the status quo and to be telling people that they could not have an Assembly.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/revealed-the-truth-about-michael-forsyth-the-tories-and-devolution.23097598

Edited April 22, 2014 by milton75

[Confidemus]

It was said umpteen times in the 90s that I recall. Michael Forsyth being one I remember, him being my MP at the time. Pretty sure it was the general consensus, although I've no idea how to demonstrate this unless it comes up in an archived newspaper search or Hansard.

I remember Waldegrave discussing it too.

Edited to add - you can find reference to this being the chat fairly easily.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/revealed-the-truth-about-michael-forsyth-the-tories-and-devolution.23097598

Now that you've sufficiently answered HB's query, don't expect a response. He'll go quiet now.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Was it you or Reynard that was saying that people at a funeral were ranting about being no voters?

When I drop my kid off at school I overhear the conversations of no voters. It would actually be really hard not to hear them. Those who speak about voting yes do it in hushed tones. I'm one of them.

Seen both Yes and No voters who are nothing more than loudmouth arses - I don't believe it is the preserve of one side or the other.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Interesting notes

1. Glasgow leaning yes

2. North East, SNP heartland, strongly No

3. Most DKs genuinely not got a clue how theyll vote, but more lean no than yes

The North East one is not as daft as it looks - there are voters out there who will have happily voted SNP for the SP elections who are either DK or No voters (my mother and grandfather for instance). Also although the SNP won lots of seats they did not win a majority of votes in the region as far as I recollect.

[Mr Bairn]

The North East one is not as daft as it looks - there are voters out there who will have happily voted SNP for the SP elections who are either DK or No voters (my mother and grandfather for instance). Also although the SNP won lots of seats they did not win a majority of votes in the region as far as I recollect.

The SNP absolutely killed it in the North East at the last election. As I recall, they won every seat in the region and one of the local activists, who was down near the bottom of the list purely as a token candidate to fill spaces, turned up to observe the count in jeans and t-shirt only to realise that he had been elected as an MSP.

Edited April 22, 2014 by Mr Bairn

[Kejan]

Interesting notes

1. Glasgow leaning yes

2. North East, SNP heartland, strongly No

3. Most DKs genuinely not got a clue how theyll vote, but more lean no than yes

I've always thought Glasgow will eventually be yes, something like 53-47.

Aberdeen will be letting down the 'Heartlands' as they seem to lump Angus, Dundee and Aberdeenshire all in.

Dk's are fairly interesting. Wonder how many generally don't know or are actually polite yes/no voters that are shy.

[glasgow-sheep]

I've always thought Glasgow will eventually be yes, something like 53-47.

Aberdeen will be letting down the 'Heartlands' as they seem to lump Angus, Dundee and Aberdeenshire all in.

Dk's are fairly interesting. Wonder how many generally don't know or are actually polite yes/no voters that are shy.

Lot of old Tories in the north east who split to the liberals and snp who probably are more anti labour than pro snp/independence and fear the socialist central belt clawing all the money down from the north east. Certainly seen more than a few folk express the opinion that they'd rather be run by London rather than the central belt.

[strichener]

Lot of old Tories in the north east who split to the liberals and snp who probably are more anti labour than pro snp/independence and fear the socialist central belt clawing all the money down from the north east. Certainly seen more than a few folk express the opinion that they'd rather be run by London rather than the central belt.

Too late.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

The SNP absolutely killed it in the North East at the last election. As I recall, they won every seat in the region and one of the local activists, who was down near the bottom of the list purely as a token candidate to fill spaces, turned up to observe the count in jeans and t-shirt only to realise that he had been elected as an MSP.

Just checked the vote in North East - SNP did achieve 52% on the list vote which elected one additional member. Labour picked up 3 additional member seats. I need to check the total votes on the constituency votes.

What I do know though is that in terms of constituency versus list vote the SNP only dropped 1.4% compared to a 5.4% drop by Labour - the SNP did perform relatively better on the list than Labour. That could be down to a number of factors - my gut instinct is that there are a large number of Labour voters too thick to understand that the second vote isn't a second choice.

Edited April 22, 2014 by DeeTillEhDeh

[Fotbawmad]

I don't think you can lump all the no voters together. I've found there are different categories. However to generalise there are probably two main sets.

1) The hard core Brit nat type

2) The rest

Of the Britnat types, these could be further subdivided

a) nutter Brit nat - Orange order, SDL types. Genuine mahogany nappers.

b) natural Brit nat - These folk think they are the mainstream. They will not recognise the nationalist in themselves as there is no such thing as British nationalism right? They tend to be loud and vocal and are fuelled by tabloid headlines and BBC pravda. They mention Alex Salmond, Braveheart and Brigadoon a lot.

You quickly suss the Brit nat out. We have all met them. They have closed minds and are not worth the effort. This hard core element is not very big. I would guess <15% of the total population.

All the rest are softer no's and open to debate. Those as you put it who are motivated by fear or self interest are still persuadable. The issue as always is getting the message through this lands disgraceful media.

We need to keep talking to them. In the street, on the doorsteps, at work, dare I say on internet forums. We can win.

That is the crucial demographic we need to win over. If we lose the referendum, then it shows all the fear, negativity and self loathing has won out, and that MSM is more powerful than I assumed. However, in my heart of hearts I do genuinely think we'll win this.

Edited April 22, 2014 by Fotbawmad