Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[Tubbs]

In the interests of balance Lex/Tubbs, are you not commenting on today's Sunday Times Poll?

I prefer to read a Scottish paper . Feel free to add it to the mix; that's what a discussion forum is all about. however, I think I was being quite balanced by questioning the swing of the SoS poll.

[I'm Brian]

What does it say?

The headline figure is unchanged, contradicting the ICM poll, but that Scots are more likely to vote Yes. So Sunday Times goes into English will save the union mode. I think that was the gist of it

As I say I don't pay any attention to the relevance of figures in polls, people will spin them as they see fit, my attitude is there is only one poll that counts, but as I say in the interests of balance not all polls released today show 5 point decrease in the Yes vote

[H_B]

The headline figure is unchanged, contradicting the ICM poll

Well, it's by two completely different polling companies.

We've been told by the Nat fails on this subject that Yes is surging and No is sliding. That's clearly contradicted by these polls.

[H_B]

I know because the data stops being nice for Yes that Curtice will be back to being a Unionist running dog, after a brief period as an important contributor to the debate, but his take on today :-

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/05/not-the-best-of-mornings-for-yes-new-icm-and-panelbase-polls/

What this importantly shows is that you should be careful what you celebrate.

There is perhaps a need for some caution in interpreting this drop in Yes support. After all, ICM’s poll last month was unusual in suggesting Yes support had risen to new heights when most other polls were reporting little or no change. Indeed at 48% its estimate of the Yes vote (once Don’t Knows were excluded) was the highest yet in any previous independently commissioned poll.

[H_B]

but that Scots are more likely to vote Yes.

However, at 47% support for No is up by two points. Once the Don’t Knows are discounted Yes stand at 46%, down a point on last month.

In the meantime our Poll of Polls has now eased down to 42% Yes, 58% No. It is nearly two months since the No side has been that far ahead.

MUMENTUMMMMMMMMMM

Edited May 18, 2014 by H_B

[Confidemus]

We've been told by the Nat fails

Cringe.

[Ad Lib]

H_B's link is dead.

[git-intae-thum]

Still waiting on the buried UK government poll.

£46,000 of tax payers money.

Shame.

[Blaven]

Can we take it that this poll is nothing like the poll that the UK government have yet to publish, or am I just speculating?

[Blaven]

Still waiting on the buried UK government poll.

£46,000 of tax payers money.

Shame.

Snap

[Colkitto]

Colkitto hasn't been along to rubbish the poll yet and attack ICM.

Will be happening shortly I'm sure.

The brits have a wee spring in their step over this particular poll. It's always nice to get good polling results for your side.

Who am I to rain on their parade?

To be honest I more excited that we are only a couple of weeks away from the official campaign period. We need to get the EU elections over with and then the gloves are well and truly off!

An absolute historic time for Scotland and one we should just take a step back to think about the privilege of being alive right now to vote in this period in time.

So get the sleeves rolled up for the last stage of this white knuckle ride

[Mr Bairn]

Has it actually been confirmed that this "poll" exists?

Seems like the clown collective are trying to make a mountain out of a molehill. Interest change of tact, instead of more ATOS related disasters for the separatists.

[~~~]

Has it actually been confirmed that this "poll" exists?

Seems like the clown collective are trying to make a mountain out of a molehill. Interest change of tact, instead of more ATOS related disasters for the separatists.

Yes, Cameron confirmed it.

Happy to help

[Blaven]

Has it actually been confirmed that this "poll" exists?

Seems like the clown collective are trying to make a mountain out of a molehill. Interest change of tact, instead of more ATOS related disasters for the separatists.

You failing again. Do try to keep up.

T W A T.

[1320Lichtie]

Polls are a lot of bollocks. Canna believe this is upto 87 pages. If a poll was showing it to be YES right now it wouldn't put me up nor down.

[Todders]

The headline figure is unchanged, contradicting the ICM poll, but that Scots are more likely to vote Yes. So Sunday Times goes into English will save the union mode. I think that was the gist of it

Anybody with any sense can see that poll for what it is. Nothing more than a cynical attempt to try and move the discussion towards ethnicity. Rags like The Times would like nothing more than see a rise in anti-English sentiment and this is nothing but an attempt to provoke such a reaction.

[Confidemus]

Has it actually been confirmed that this "poll" exists?

Seems like the clown collective are trying to make a mountain out of a molehill. Interest change of tact, instead of more ATOS related disasters for the separatists.

:lol:

Another giant fail for the white feather!

[H_B]

The brits have a wee spring in their step over this particular poll. It's always nice to get good polling results for your side.

Who am I to rain on their parade?

To be honest I more excited that we are only a couple of weeks away from the official campaign period. We need to get the EU elections over with and then the gloves are well and truly off!

An absolute historic time for Scotland and one we should just take a step back to think about the privilege of being alive right now to vote in this period in time.

So get the sleeves rolled up for the last stage of this white knuckle ride

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

seething.

What do you make of Sunday's polling data?

You usually have a lot to say about polls that come out. What does it indicate about the momentum of the Yes campaign?

Edited May 19, 2014 by H_B

[renton]

Well, that was a bad weekend for Yes polling, but there are the usual caveats. All of the polls bar two showed within measurement error swings, requiring us to see if those swings have stuck next month or if they are just noise. That woudl leave us with the overall picture of stagnation (bad for yes) with 4 months to go, or a slight increase in No (worse for yes). The two other polls were the SPO poll and ICM.

Despite attempts to spin it as a continuation of the YouGov series, it's really not. It uses the YouGov panel, but the order ofr the questions, what was actually asked and the weighting used was not YouGov but SPO. Therefore we can only compare it to the last SPO poll ocnducted last year and conclude there has been a 9 point swing to Yes. This is only confirming the obvious from other pollsters have already said, and the lack of BPC status, unreleased data tables and vague poll weighting means it's an entirely uninteresting data point.

Then there is ICM, which showed a 3 point deficit for Yes last month - basically a statistical tie, and this month showed a 10 point swing to No. None of the other pollsters, even allowing for the small changes seen to be real and not ghosts in the stats, don't show anything like that scale of change. It looks therefore a bit of an outlier - which doesn't mean it's wrong but that without another poll confirming that level of swing, it's hard to pin it down. ICM have in this campaign changed their methodology every other poll, and this had produced dramatic swings in the polling numbers and also makes it impossible to identify a trend with their polling, despite being the 'gold standard' for British polling. It's a morale booster for No certainly, but as a single data point cannot be confirmed as the actual state of play.

Still, even without ICM, the polling picture is grim for Yes. 4 months out and needing to hit 2-3 point positive swings now each and every month in order to overhaul No before polling day. Which after a spring of basically stagnant polls after yes had hauled themselves up into contention seems at this stage unlikely. We still have the EU elections to go, and the impact of a strong UKIP/Tory performance down south might still have a positive effect for Yes. The 'official' camapign period starts at the end of the month and other yes voters here seem to pin some hope on this giving Yes a boost, outright I can't see why that might be - the broadcast emdia can allot equal time to both parties while still favourign one over the other and not break it's own rules, for example.

Overall then, short of gaining traction through the summer, the current state of play probably indiciates a 45/55 split for No.

[Colkitto]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

seething.

What do you make of Sunday's polling data?

You usually have a lot to say about polls that come out. What does it indicate about the momentum of the Yes campaign?

You said I would be along to rubbish the poll. I've said it was a good poll for the No campaign and you still want to have a go

The Yes polling has stalled from the gains over the Winter, which I'm personally not too overly concerned about as the debate in general has stalled in my opinion.

Yes, there is still stuff going on but we've not really heard anything new, it's mostly the same old arguments.

The campaign period is the big tester. And that's when most people will engage in the referendum.

Looks like it's going to the wire....