H_B Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Looks like it's going to the wire.... Why does it look like that? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Why does it look like that? Are you saying it's game over for the Yes campaign? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Are you saying it's game over for the Yes campaign? I've been quite clear all along that it's never been "Game On" for the Yes campaign. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 The weekend polling is very amusing though after your comedy rhetoric from last week that "No know the game's up... they are losing...panic has set in...waaah". Oops 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 I've been quite clear all along that it's never been "Game On" for the Yes campaign. I said "game over" not game on. In my opinion the Yes side will run a better campaign against the negative, no hope, nothing to offer No side. The official campaign will be run like an election. With one side offering nothing more than the status quo with a few add on's. With the Tories rising in the polls and Ukip winning the Euro elections in the RUK, then it will very much be "game on" 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Cringeworthy performance by HB here. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Then there is ICM, which showed a 3 point deficit for Yes last month - basically a statistical tie, and this month showed a 10 point swing to No. None of the other pollsters, even allowing for the small changes seen to be real and not ghosts in the stats, don't show anything like that scale of change. It looks therefore a bit of an outlier - which doesn't mean it's wrong but that without another poll confirming that level of swing, it's hard to pin it down. ICM have in this campaign changed their methodology every other poll, and this had produced dramatic swings in the polling numbers and also makes it impossible to identify a trend with their polling, despite being the 'gold standard' for British polling. It's a morale booster for No certainly, but as a single data point cannot be confirmed as the actual state of play. I think John Curtice pointed out that had ICM not tweaked their weighting methodology slightly this time out, it would have churned out 60:40 for No excluding Don't Knows. It seems as though there has been a slight fall in Yes support, but that the magnitude of it is largely accounted for by the previous ICM poll being somewhat of an outlier in being excessively favourable to the Yes campaign. The true picture is probably simply that in the last 2 months support has been broadly static. Much like it has been across most polls since the turn of the year. Most of the swing people keep talking about, as I pointed out a few months ago, happened between September and January. If Yes are to be confident of a win, they have to gain about 2 points a month across the board. That would be a pretty impressive and unlikely surge at the moment, considering especially that in the last 4 months, there has been a net change of about 1-2% in the poll of polls posted earlier. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 I think John Curtice pointed out that had ICM not tweaked their weighting methodology slightly this time out, it would have churned out 60:40 for No excluding Don't Knows. It seems as though there has been a slight fall in Yes support, but that the magnitude of it is largely accounted for by the previous ICM poll being somewhat of an outlier in being excessively favourable to the Yes campaign. The true picture is probably simply that in the last 2 months support has been broadly static. Much like it has been across most polls since the turn of the year. Most of the swing people keep talking about, as I pointed out a few months ago, happened between September and January. If Yes are to be confident of a win, they have to gain about 2 points a month across the board. That would be a pretty impressive and unlikely surge at the moment, considering especially that in the last 4 months, there has been a net change of about 1-2% in the poll of polls posted earlier. Yeah agree with that and largely what I said previously. Unless there is a fairly dramatic traction during the summer it's hard to see where that 2.5 points a month is going to come from. If we conclude that the last two polls from ICM have given us the two corner cases, it suggests that they do have a wider variability in their polls than just about anyone else. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 I've said for a while now that if everyone who is entitled to vote does indeed turn up to the Polling Station then No will win comfortably. Very comfortably. However it still astounds me how soft the No vote is. I know a few people at work who are 'No' voters but they've also said there is a fair chance they won't even bother their arses to turn up and vote Whereas 99% of the Yes side, while smaller in numbers, will turn up and put their cross in the box. Basically it's going to come down to how many No's turn up on the day. And sadly, I do think it will be enough for them. This time. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 The official campaign period is where the polls will move substantially just as they did in the 2011 election. The last Quebec referendum had the No side polling at 67% and we know how close that ended up. That's why I believe it will go down to the wire. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 The last Quebec referendum had the No side polling at 67% and we know how close that ended up. When? Also, we know that Yes led the polls going into the actual day. And we know how that ended up. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Indeed with Quebec the final 6 polls prior to Ref Day all had Yes winning. By a combined margin of 22 points. The very last poll before the event had Yes winning by 6 points. They didn't. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 When? Also, we know that Yes led the polls going into the actual day. And we know how that ended up. Wiki -: "Early polls indicated that 67% of Quebecers would vote "No" 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Indeed with Quebec the final 6 polls prior to Ref Day all had Yes winning. By a combined margin of 22 points. The very last poll before the event had Yes winning by 6 points. They didn't. Well, you make my point. No are in the lead just now, anything can happen right up till the last day 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamaldo Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 I've said for a while now that if everyone who is entitled to vote does indeed turn up to the Polling Station then No will win comfortably. Very comfortably. However it still astounds me how soft the No vote is. I know a few people at work who are 'No' voters but they've also said there is a fair chance they won't even bother their arses to turn up and vote Whereas 99% of the Yes side, while smaller in numbers, will turn up and put their cross in the box. Basically it's going to come down to how many No's turn up on the day. And sadly, I do think it will be enough for them. This time. There is not going to be over 2 million No votes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 There is not going to be over 2 million No votes. There aren't going to be anything like 2 million Yes votes either. The Scottish electorate is about 4 million. Turnout is not going to be much above 70% at the absolute most and neither side is going to get anything more than 60% of the vote, probably not much more than 55%. To get over 2 million votes a side needs 3/4 of the vote on a 70% turnout. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Well, you make my point. No are in the lead just now, anything can happen right up till the last day I also make the point that despite there being a huge Yes lead in the polls it led to a No victory. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamaldo Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 There aren't going to be anything like 2 million Yes votes either. The Scottish electorate is about 4 million. Turnout is not going to be much above 70% at the absolute most and neither side is going to get anything more than 60% of the vote, probably not much more than 55%. To get over 2 million votes a side needs 3/4 of the vote on a 70% turnout. Classic "glass half-empty" response from yourself. Because you yourself love being a pedant, I never said there would be 2 million Yes votes. That's only possible in the event of a full turnout which won't happen. I was simply working on Karl's example. I'd be happy with a 70% turnout. I believe we'll win if that's the figure. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 I'd be happy with a 70% turnout. I believe we'll win if that's the figure. What gives you this belief, given the opinion polling says exactly the opposite? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fotbawmad Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Right now I would say there is a 45-55 split in the votes, but I think once the campaign starts to ramp up in July/August, then we'll start to see a gradual shift to the oposite. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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