Jamaldo Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 What gives you this belief, given the opinion polling says exactly the opposite? It's my belief. If you don't like it, tough titties. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 I also make the point that despite there being a huge Yes lead in the polls it led to a No victory. But surely the point is having a lead in referenda so far out doesn't mean all that much? It's an indicator nothing else. And unlike what you do, right now none of the two sides can say it's game over, we'll win 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 (edited) Classic "glass half-empty" response from yourself. Because you yourself love being a pedant, I never said there would be 2 million Yes votes. That's only possible in the event of a full turnout which won't happen. I was simply working on Karl's example. I'd be happy with a 70% turnout. I believe we'll win if that's the figure. It's not glass half empty at all. It's simply stating the fact that there is absolutely no chance of either side getting more than 2 million votes. In both of the previous referendums on Scotland's future, about 2.4 million people voted. Even if we increased turnout to 3 million, to get close to 2 million it would have to be a landslide for one side or the other. Saying that one side is going to get even close to 2 million votes is saying their side will be significantly more popular than devolution was in 1997. That's just not credible. That's not pessimism. Edited May 19, 2014 by Ad Lib 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Right now I would say there is a 45-55 split in the votes, but I think once the campaign starts to ramp up in July/August, then we'll start to see a gradual shift to the oposite. I can't see there being any chance that the end result will be a 10 point win for No. I still think my standard prediction of around 52/48 or 53/47 will prove to be on the money. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 It's my belief. If you don't like it, tough titties. Right, so just wishing on a star nonsense then. About your level of contribution to be fair. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Right, so just wishing on a star nonsense then. About your level of contribution to be fair. There are amoeba on Saturn who contribute more to this thread than you, tbf. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamaldo Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Right, so just wishing on a star nonsense then. About your level of contribution to be fair. Nah, just can't be bothered with you that's all. It's not glass half empty at all. It's simply stating the fact that there is absolutely no chance of either side getting more than 2 million votes. In both of the previous referendums on Scotland's future, about 2.4 million people voted. Even if we increased turnout to 3 million, to get close to 2 million it would have to be a landslide for one side or the other. Saying that one side is going to get even close to 2 million votes is saying their side will be significantly more popular than devolution was in 1997. That's just not credible. That's not pessimism. Again, are you actually going to point to where I said this? If there's a 70% turnout, I still can't see over 1.4 million people voting No. I refuse to believe that so many people living in Scotland are happy with the current constitutional set-up. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 I refuse to believe that so many people living in Scotland are happy with the current constitutional set-up. Oh dear. It's like talking to a chimp. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 I suppose you deserve some credit for not going down the "I refuse to believe 1.4 million people can betray their country" line. So credit where it's due. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 If there's a 70% turnout, I still can't see over 1.4 million people voting No. I refuse to believe that so many people living in Scotland are happy with the current constitutional set-up. Voting No doesn't imply that you are happy with the current constitutional set-up. It just means you don't support independence. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Voting No doesn't imply that you are happy with the current constitutional set-up. It just means you don't support independence. By voting No, you are voting to maintain the set up as it exists at present and confirming that you are indeed happy with how things currently are. I know this greatly upsets you, but that's the truth of it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Just noticed Ab Lib's new signature, what on earth 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 By voting No, you are voting to maintain the set up as it exists at present and confirming that you are indeed happy with how things currently are. I know this greatly upsets you, but that's the truth of it. No you aren't. You are voting against Scottish independence. What happens to the status quo within the Union, no one is voting either for or against. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 Just noticed Ab Lib's new signature, what on earth Take it up with Alex Salmond if you've got a problem with it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 (edited) Take it up with Alex Salmond if you've got a problem with it. I am just wondering what the point in it is. Are there some who think we are oppressed and need to be liberated? Edited May 19, 2014 by Guest 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 So the ICM poll asked the referendum question third, asking a question beforehand about how comfortable someone was being asked their intention, apparently they were looking for shy Nos - either they found them or they ended up making a whole bunch of the Yes vote dissapear for no good reason. http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/concerns-mount-over-icms-sudden-change.html Obviously, the methodological changes can be overstated, and it's likely that some of the fall off is due to the overly favourable ICM poll for the previous month. Still interesting though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 I am just wondering what the point in it is. Are there some who think we are oppressed and need to be liberated? Not really about oppression and liberation ,SORRY. Its more to do with equality for me. Uk government are going in one direction©. Their whole ecomony and future vision is based on LONDON. Its really the rest of the UK that needs to break away from London and start afresh as they too are not getting the best deal. We tho, cant take everyone with us so its a case of save yourself before the ship sinks. The life boat might be small but it is at least still afloat. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 I am just wondering what the point in it is. Are there some who think we are oppressed and need to be liberated? There is plenty language and arguments used on this forum and further afield which seek to portray the UK-Scotland relationship as oppressive. Whether it's metaphors about battered wives, Alan Bisset's "Jockholm Syndrome" poster, claims that Westminster are going to take away the Scottish Parliament's powers, decimate the welfare state, privatise Scotland's NHS and the like, we have a campaign which seeks to present a No vote as endorsing a systematic attack on the Scottish people. I think people should stop doing that. So the ICM poll asked the referendum question third, asking a question beforehand about how comfortable someone was being asked their intention, apparently they were looking for shy Nos - either they found them or they ended up making a whole bunch of the Yes vote dissapear for no good reason. http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/concerns-mount-over-icms-sudden-change.html Obviously, the methodological changes can be overstated, and it's likely that some of the fall off is due to the overly favourable ICM poll for the previous month. Still interesting though. It'll be interesting to see what polling observers think about how those preceding questions would be expected to change the responses of those voting in the main question. It seems intuitively more straightforward when the SNP ran questions to the effect "do you think Scotland can be a prosperous independent country" and "who do you trust, the Scottish Government or the Westminster Government" to say that those questions are designed to induce a perception in the mind of the respondents that they should vote Yes. I don't think it's immediately obvious that asking "Thinking about the referendum on independence for Scotland, do you feel comfortable or uncomfortable being asked which way you might vote?" leans one way or the other in cementing the perceptions of people about whether they should vote Yes or No. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 No you aren't. You are voting against Scottish independence. What happens to the status quo within the Union, no one is voting either for or against. A No vote is a ringing endorsement for the status quo within the Union. Hate to break it to you. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted May 19, 2014 Share Posted May 19, 2014 There is plenty language and arguments used on this forum and further afield which seek to portray the UK-Scotland relationship as oppressive. Whether it's metaphors about battered wives, Alan Bisset's "Jockholm Syndrome" poster, claims that Westminster are going to take away the Scottish Parliament's powers, decimate the welfare state, privatise Scotland's NHS and the like, we have a campaign which seeks to present a No vote as endorsing a systematic attack on the Scottish people. I think people should stop doing that. It'll be interesting to see what polling observers think about how those preceding questions would be expected to change the responses of those voting in the main question. It seems intuitively more straightforward when the SNP ran questions to the effect "do you think Scotland can be a prosperous independent country" and "who do you trust, the Scottish Government or the Westminster Government" to say that those questions are designed to induce a perception in the mind of the respondents that they should vote Yes. I don't think it's immediately obvious that asking "Thinking about the referendum on independence for Scotland, do you feel comfortable or uncomfortable being asked which way you might vote?" leans one way or the other in cementing the perceptions of people about whether they should vote Yes or No. Yet again its the Yes side that are not allowed to get the populus to worry about the things that they worry about. The No side however are freely entitled to go to town on worrying the voters. Shame Libby. Shame. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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