Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[renton]

Okay, so its not an increase in support for Yes at all then.

It's one particular poll that had a higher percentage of support for Yes than their last poll, but still lower than what a Yes vote was polling on average back in November.

Ispos Mori have always been the outlier in terms of showing a lower Yes support than the other pollsters, this poll shows a narrowing of the gap by 7 points from their last poll conducted way back in January time. The field work is up to date. It may be showing a large uplift in Yes that if replicated in the other pollsters would be a significant boost for Yes, more likely it's Ipsos Mori finally catching up to the other pollsters in terms of showing that early year surge (given the absence of other Mori polls in the intervening time period).

[ICTChris]

Saw some interesting snippets on Twitter about the latest big poll.

46% of men plan to vote Yes, 46% of men plan to vote No.

28% of women plan to vote Yes, 61% of women plan to vote No.

Most deprived areas - 41% Yes, 51% No

Least deprived areas - 33% Yes, 59% No.

[Lex]

Interesting indeed. The nats just cannot seem to make any inroads into the female vote.

[Blaven]

Interesting indeed. The nats just cannot seem to make any inroads into the female vote.

Once YES starts advertising in CLOSER and TAKE A BREAK, I'm sure that will change.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Here's one little statistic that shows how much Yes have to do to win.

At the last Scottish election much was made of the SNP's performance in NE Scotland - yet when you total all the votes up the SNP only achieved 52% of the vote in what is seen as their stronghold. Now I know that votes for the SNP (or other parties for that matter) may not translate in to Yes (or No) votes. It does, however, seem to me that the Yes campaign, despite the landslide for the SNP, have always had an uphill fight to turn things round in the 3 years since those elections. I still stand by my prediction of a No win - I have said by 57-43 (excluding spoilt papers including mine). Even if that were the result it would not be a disaster for Yes - either a platform to come back in future or to negotiate further powers if (more like when) the SNP win the next Scottish election. Whatever happens I think the status quo won't survive in its present form.

Edited June 4, 2014 by DeeTillEhDeh

[Mr Bairn]

Most deprived areas - 41% Yes, 51% No

Least deprived areas - 33% Yes, 59% No.

What's interesting here anyway? Do only deprived areas matter?

[ecto]

Here's one little statistic that shows how much Yes have to do to win.

At the last Scottish election much was made of the SNP's performance in NE Scotland - yet when you total all the votes up the SNP only achieved 52% of the vote in what is seen as their stronghold. Now I know that votes for the SNP (or other parties for that matter) may not translate in to Yes (or No) votes. It does, however, seem to me that the Yes campaign, despite the landslide for the SNP, have always had an uphill fight to turn things round in the 3 years since those elections. I still stand by my prediction of a No win - I have said by 57-43 (excluding spoilt papers including mine). Even if that were the result it would not be a disaster for Yes - either a platform to come back in future or to negotiate further powers if (more like when) the SNP win the next Scottish election. Whatever happens I think the status quo won't survive in its present form.

43%- 57%, SNP will call that a "moral victory" anything below that, just a defeat

[Mr Bairn]

Here's one little statistic that shows how much Yes have to do to win.

At the last Scottish election much was made of the SNP's performance in NE Scotland - yet when you total all the votes up the SNP only achieved 52% of the vote in what is seen as their stronghold. Now I know that votes for the SNP (or other parties for that matter) may not translate in to Yes (or No) votes. It does, however, seem to me that the Yes campaign, despite the landslide for the SNP, have always had an uphill fight to turn things round in the 3 years since those elections. I still stand by my prediction of a No win - I have said by 57-43 (excluding spoilt papers including mine). Even if that were the result it would not be a disaster for Yes - either a platform to come back in future or to negotiate further powers if (more like when) the SNP win the next Scottish election. Whatever happens I think the status quo won't survive in its present form.

Two things to note, one is that it's far harder to poll 50%+ in an election compared to a referendum where there are only two sides, so one of them has to be above 50%.

Also, the North East is an SNP heartland but from the polling tables I've looked at, it's actually one of the worst areas for yes Scotland. Yes could do well in the highlands and in Central belt but the East coast looks like a No heartland.

[ArabianKnight]

Two things to note, one is that it's far harder to poll 50%+ in an election compared to a referendum where there are only two sides, so one of them has to be above 50%.

Also, the North East is an SNP heartland but from the polling tables I've looked at, it's actually one of the worst areas for yes Scotland. Yes could do well in the highlands and in Central belt but the East coast looks like a No heartland.

Maybe Aberdeenshire but not Angus and Tayside.

[Mr Bairn]

Maybe Aberdeenshire but not Angus and Tayside.

Aberdeen and Shire are almost double the size of Angus and Tayside. The opinion polls I've seen have No miles ahead in the North East.

[ForzaDundee]

Also, the North East is an SNP heartland but from the polling tables I've looked at, it's actually one of the worst areas for yes Scotland. Yes could do well in the highlands and in Central belt but the East coast looks like a No heartland.

I bet Dundee and Angus will be the strongest Yes areas.

[Mr Bairn]

I bet Dundee and Angus will be the strongest Yes areas.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but in the four ICM polls released between the start of the year and easter, support for independence in NE Scotland averaged 41%(DKs excluded). Only Lothians(40%) polled lower figures

[ArabianKnight]

I bet Dundee and Angus will be the strongest Yes areas.

Did William Wallace not supposedly kill his first Englishman on Castle Street or something?

JUST YOU THINK ABOUT THAT UNIONIST SCUM.

(^^^^ I'm just joking)

[ForzaDundee]

I'm not saying you're wrong, but in the four ICM polls released between the start of the year and easter, support for independence in NE Scotland averaged 41%(DKs excluded). Only Lothians(40%) polled lower figures

Read whatever you want from the polls. It's blatantly obvious that Dundee will be solid yes.

Did William Wallace not supposedly kill his first Englishman on Castle Street or something?

JUST YOU THINK ABOUT THAT UNIONIST SCUM.

(^^^^ I'm just joking)

Yeah the son of the English Governor who controlled Dundee Castle said something rude so Wallace killed him. English soldiers chased him to Longforgan. Some boy.

Plaque in Dundee city centre read "Near this spot, William Wallace struck the first blow for Scottish independence".

Bet Mr Bairn is raging just thinking about it.

[Mr Bairn]

Read whatever you want from the polls. It's blatantly obvious that Dundee will be solid yes.

Yeah the son of the English Governor who controlled Dundee Castle said something rude so Wallace killed him. English soldiers chased him to Longforgan. Some boy.

Plaque in Dundee city centre read "Near this spot, William Wallace struck the first blow for Scottish independence".

Bet Mr Bairn is raging just thinking about it.

I really, honestly don't give a shit about it.

Fwiw, everyone I know from Dundee is either yes or undecided. That's all of about 3 people, though. I don't see how it is "blatantly obvious"

Hint: It's nothing to do with SNP results.

[ArabianKnight]

Yeah the son of the English Governor who controlled Dundee Castle said something rude so Wallace killed him. English soldiers chased him to Longforgan. Some boy.

Plaque in Dundee city centre read "Near this spot, William Wallace struck the first blow for Scottish independence".

Bet Mr Bairn is raging just thinking about it.

Yeah that's what I was thinking about, cheers.

Dundee is absolutely solid yes, the few folk I know that were No have came over to the good side with only two solid no voters (one is a guy who owns a business who said he wants indy but it will make it much harder to compete for the contracts his business gets from down south) the other is an orc from Falkirk, no explanation needed!

[milton75]

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-north-sea-firms-confident-1-3433736

MORE North Sea oil and gas firms believe Scottish independence would have a positive impact than those who think its effect will be negative, a study published today reveals.

The 20th Oil and Gas survey, conducted by the Fraser of Allander Institute for Aberdeen Chamber of Commerce, found 18 per cent of companies thought independence would be positive for the industry.

That contrasted with 12 per cent who said it would be negative. Most (38 per cent) felt a Yes vote would make little difference. The remaining 32 per cent felt it was difficult to reach a clear view.

The findings were welcomed by the Scottish Government.

Sponsored by the law firm Bond Dickinson, the survey questioned more than 700 operator, contractor and service companies over a two-month period in March-April this year.

Last night, energy minister Fergus Ewing said: “It is very welcome that 56 per cent of oil and gas companies surveyed either believe independence will be positive for the sector or will make little difference.

“This is not the first time we have heard that North Sea investors are relaxed at the prospect of a Yes vote and independence.

“The Scottish Government is clear that, to realise the North Sea’s full potential, we need long-term predictability and stability for the industry, something successive UK governments have totally failed to achieve.”

Mr Ewing added: “Scotland needs the powers to use its resources for the benefit of the people who live here. Only a Yes vote on 18 September will deliver the powers needed.”

Almost half of firms in the sector say the referendum is having an impact on their plans and investment, the survey said. The percentage claiming it is having an effect has risen from 38 per cent last spring to 45 per cent.

The report paints a mixed picture for the industry. Just 52 per cent of contractors are working at or above optimum levels on the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS), the lowest level since late 2011, with this problem being felt most acutely by smaller contractors. There has also been a sharp fall in the percentage of contractors working at or above optimum levels in international markets, with just 47 per cent doing so – down from 73 per cent in the previous survey. The report’s authors felt this reflected increasing competition.

However, 37 per cent of oil and gas firms are more confident about their future prospects on the UKCS than they were a year ago, compared to just 15 per cent who are less confident.

Better Together highlighted the 45 per cent who reported an impact on investment. Labour MSP Richard Baker said: “It is clear that uncertainty is forcing oil firms to delay investment in Scotland.

“The oil and gas sector is hugely important. But revenues are volatile and declining and can’t pay for everything. Being part of the UK attracts more investment which creates more jobs but the message from major employers is that uncertainty is putting those benefits at risk.”

[harry94]

Yeah that's what I was thinking about, cheers.

Dundee is absolutely solid yes, the few folk I know that were No have came over to the good side with only two solid no voters (one is a guy who owns a business who said he wants indy but it will make it much harder to compete for the contracts his business gets from down south) the other is an orc from Falkirk, no explanation needed!

Unfortunately, I am not as optimistic.

22000 university students. Now I know that the student movement appears quite strong but I guarantee you that there is not a chance in hell of them voting for independence. Young people are generally harder to win over and we have a lot of students from other parts of the UK who would never entertain the motion. Staff are as equally unkeen and there are around 2500 of them. My lecturers come out with uninformed drivel on the matter and genuinely get quite angry.

You then have a few companies like Alliance Trust which have issued independence warnings a few times now. Anyone employed in this industry is more likely to vote against just for that reason alone. If you add up all the staff working for financial industries then you get around 2000.

I see this as around 25000 people who are going to be at least 60% No at the very least. Around 80% of the population are eligible so around 120000 will vote in Dundee. If that side of the vote goes the way I think it will then we need to get around 55% with the rest which is possible but very difficult.

I recently went to see Ed Byrne at the Rep and the demographic was the sort I would have expected to be pro-independence but when the subject was brought up it was quite a clear no majority. It might have had something to do with the woman being a bit more keen than the men to air their views though.

[ecto]

Yeah that's what I was thinking about, cheers.

Dundee is absolutely solid yes, the few folk I know that were No have came over to the good side with only two solid no voters (one is a guy who owns a business who said he wants indy but it will make it much harder to compete for the contracts his business gets from down south) the other is an orc from Falkirk, no explanation needed!

Unfortunately, I am not as optimistic.

22000 university students. Now I know that the student movement appears quite strong but I guarantee you that there is not a chance in hell of them voting for independence. Young people are generally harder to win over and we have a lot of students from other parts of the UK who would never entertain the motion. Staff are as equally unkeen and there are around 2500 of them. My lecturers come out with uninformed drivel on the matter and genuinely get quite angry.

You then have a few companies like Alliance Trust which have issued independence warnings a few times now. Anyone employed in this industry is more likely to vote against just for that reason alone. If you add up all the staff working for financial industries then you get around 2000.

I see this as around 25000 people who are going to be at least 60% No at the very least. Around 80% of the population are eligible so around 120000 will vote in Dundee. If that side of the vote goes the way I think it will then we need to get around 55% with the rest which is possible but very difficult.

I recently went to see Ed Byrne at the Rep and the demographic was the sort I would have expected to be pro-independence but when the subject was brought up it was quite a clear no majority. It might have had something to do with the woman being a bit more keen than the men to air their views though.

if Yes Scotland don't win the North East, they will not win

[Lex]

if Yes Scotland don't win the North East, they will not win

They will win Dundee, but that's the only one of the four big cities that they will win.