Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[Reynard]

A sample of 900 canvass returns taken in areas of Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen, brought the following results:

Undecided 35 per cent

Yes 48 per cent

No 17 per cent

When the undecideds are taken out the result is:

Yes 74 per cent

No 26 per cent

Beautiful.

Scheme goblins on the rampage by the look of it.

[H_B]

Would love to see some of this canvassing in action...

I saw the Scottish Socialists in action in Stirling a few times, trying to get uninterested passers by to sign a petition. Not sure what the point of this petition was.

[Confidemus]

I saw the Scottish Socialists in action in Stirling a few times,

Up visiting relatives were you?

[Reynard]

Would love to see some of this canvassing in action...

I saw the Scottish Socialists in action in Stirling a few times, trying to get uninterested passers by to sign a petition. Not sure what the point of this petition was.

The socialists thoroughly enjoy a wee march and a placard or two. They don't enjoy working or having a bath.

[ICTChris]

One of the polls I saw also broke down support for independence by council area. Can't post it as I'm at work, surely someone else saw it?

[HardyBamboo]

Hmm dodgy maths, or full on propaganda?

Dodgy maths? It would surely be dodgy arithmetic, (assuming the arithmetic was actually dodgy)? Thought you were a maths student?

BTW I am not suggesting that the canvass results were scientific, far from it.

[ICTChris]

Here are the maps on voting intention in the referendum. I love stuff like this.

http://election-data.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/scottish-independence-regional-polling.html

[ICTChris]

So according to that information Strathclyde looks on a knife edge.

Also seems Perthshire is full of onionists.

[Colkitto]

Sorry, but are you asking why polls conducted by a pro independence group, without any independently applied methodology, or scrutiny, aren't of any value at all?

We have no idea who they asked, whether they were entitled to vote in the referendum, how the votes were gathered, how they were counted, etc etc.

Utterly meaningless. As I said, I will gladly bet you that Glasgow will return a No vote.

They are canvass results straight from the doorstep. Raw results straight from the people of Glasgow. No dodgy lead up preambles or questions or dodgy weighting methods.

It may not be perfect, but you cannot easily dismiss it either.

[Colkitto]

Mmmmm.. yep.

Maybe the canvassing is picking up votes that opinion polls are not. Something has spooked Darling given his rather erratic behaviour. Maybe their canvassing is showing very different results too

[Broccoli Dog]

I seriously hope that the entire Yes campaign make an effort to ensure that all of these disenfranchised voters from the schemes all go out to vote on the 18th, it's the only way the thing will be won.

[H_B]

They are canvass results straight from the doorstep. Raw results

Uh huh. From an organisation with a dog in the fight, no oversight as to recording methods, and who we are being asked to rtust have really just played with a straight bat here.

It's the equivalent of the Orange Order having taken a straw poll at a meeting.

[Mr Bairn]

I seriously hope that the entire Yes campaign make an effort to ensure that all of these disenfranchised voters from the schemes all go out to vote on the 18th, it's the only way the thing will be won.

Contrarily, I think a high turnout favours better together, since yes voters are more passionate about the cause and thus more likely to vote. I think Blair Jenkins and Alex Salmond will be doing rain dances the night before the vote.

[Confidemus]

It's the equivalent of the Orange Order having taken a straw poll at a meeting.

It's nothing of the sort. More lies and abject failure from the forum's resident goon.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

It's nothing of the sort. More lies and abject failure from the forum's resident goon.

Canvass returns are meaningless.

Trust me.

Fine for targetting on the day to get voters out - nothing more.

[Thundermonkey]

Mr Bairn - engage yer brain. Broccoli Dog ain't suggesting Yes Scotland give lazy unionists a shake.

[Thumper]

Contrarily, I think a high turnout favours better together, since yes voters are more passionate about the cause and thus more likely to vote. I think Blair Jenkins and Alex Salmond will be doing rain dances the night before the vote.

There's something of a contradiction there: when undecideds are pressed they generally break in favour of Yes, and so the more undecideds that find their way to the polls on the day the better the prospects for independence. Ultimately I think the Yes campaign will make a far greater effort to GOTV on the day. The establishment's scare campaign simply doesn't work on voters who aren't already committed masons Ukips Sevconians puppy-stranglers Unionists, so they'll be wanting undecideds to stay at home.

[H_B]

There's something of a contradiction there: when undecideds are pressed they generally break in favour of Yes, .

Your evidence for this please?

[Mr Bairn]

There's something of a contradiction there: when undecideds are pressed they generally break in favour of Yes, and so the more undecideds that find their way to the polls on the day the better the prospects for independence. Ultimately I think the Yes campaign will make a far greater effort to GOTV on the day. The establishment's scare campaign simply doesn't work on voters who aren't already committed masons Ukips Sevconians puppy-stranglers Unionists, so they'll be wanting undecideds to stay at home.

I'm not talking about undecideds, I'm talking about soft no's. Anyone who's leaning yes is almost certain to go out and vote imo

[Thumper]

I'm not talking about undecideds, I'm talking about soft no's. Anyone who's leaning yes is almost certain to go out and vote imo

Right: that's the conundrum.

• Low turnout: potential for hard voters to decide the result. More hard Yes than hard No. Win for independence.
• Moderate turnout: soft votes become more important. More soft No than soft Yes. Win for Maggie Thatcher and her mewling acolytes.
• High turnout: All hard and soft votes accounted for, undecideds hold the key. Undecideds typically break for Yes. Win for independence.

Ultimately, Yes is the force for light and justice, and it wouldn't be democratic to try to stifle turnout, so they'll go for a massive GOTV campaign. Conversely, the profoundly undemocratic No campaign will want to keep turnout as low as they can given that it's likely to be high given the importance of the issue.