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Latest Polls and Latest Odds


Lex

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A wee local poll in the Ayr Advertiser.

attachicon.gifindyref45.jpg

I also note that from the start of this month Bet365 odds have gone:

06/06/2014 - YES 11/4 - NO 1/4

13/06/2014 - YES 10/3 - NO 1/5

16/06/2015 - YES 7/2 - NO 1/6

YES voters should be lumping on now......unless they are holding out for 4/1 or 9/2.

Thankfully South Ayrshire is not representative of the rest of the country.

Living in Prestwick I am only too aware of the "fur coat and no knickers" Tory pensioner brigade down here.

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A wee local poll in the Ayr Advertiser.

attachicon.gifindyref45.jpg

I also note that from the start of this month Bet365 odds have gone:

06/06/2014 - YES 11/4 - NO 1/4

13/06/2014 - YES 10/3 - NO 1/5

16/06/2015 - YES 7/2 - NO 1/6

YES voters should be lumping on now......unless they are holding out for 4/1 or 9/2.

Any idea which funerals they did the fieldwork at?

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Are we likely to see the biggest poll changes in these last 3 months? What does the Yes campaign have to do to convince the undecided and close the gap?

Tell the truth and don't get bogged down in desperate mud slinging from Team No.

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A guy chapped on my door today wearing a Yes T-shirt and asked which way i was voting i the election, then asked what was the strength of my vote on a 1-10 basis. He was writing on a clipboard kept close to his chest and when he lowered it I noticed he had made his own chart in biro.

Strange guy.

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A guy chapped on my door today wearing a Yes T-shirt and asked which way i was voting i the election, then asked what was the strength of my vote on a 1-10 basis. He was writing on a clipboard kept close to his chest and when he lowered it I noticed he had made his own chart in biro.

Strange guy.

Just goes tae show ye.

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Just goes tae show ye.

Cool.

Seriously though, are people actually canvassing areas asking what you are voting (both sides) and taking note, or was this a sole lunatic? I ask as I have never come across this before.

Edited by Bobby Skidmarks
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Cool.

Seriously though, are people actually canvassing areas asking what you are voting (both sides) and taking note, or was this a sole lunatic? I ask as I have never come across this before.

TBH I have no idea. I have never been canvassed nor have I ever been asked to patricipate in a poll relating to the referendum.

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Cool.

Seriously though, are people actually canvassing areas asking what you are voting (both sides) and taking note, or was this a sole lunatic? I ask as I have never come across this before.

TBH I have no idea. I have never been canvassed nor have I ever been asked to patricipate in a poll relating to the referendum.

Canvassing is common enough. Nowadays, it's all recorded digitally, but even 20 years ago, the two main parties in Arbroath knew where their voters (and opponents!) lived.

Accordingly, I was never canvassed by the SNP (who knew I was a certain SNP voter) or the Tories (who also knew I was an SNP supporter)

Occasionally, the Lib Dems would send someone out and Labour had some canvassers out in '97. I used to tell them that I didn't vote for parties that came knocking on my door

Edited by lichtgilphead
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Canvassing is common enough. Nowadays, it's all recorded digitally, but even 20 years ago, the two main parties in Arbroath knew where their voters (and opponents!) lived.

Accordingly, I was never canvassed by the SNP (who knew I was a certain SNP voter) or the Tories (who also knew I was an SNP supporter)

Occasionally, the Lib Dems would send someone out and Labour had some canvassers out in '97. I used to tell them that I didn't vote for parties that came knocking on my door

You should never do that.

Its always recomended to ask the canvasser loads of questions and ask for leaflets.

Take up as much of their time as you possibly can and take as much of their propaganda paperwork in order to save some other poor soul from being swayed by their pish. :D

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Tell the truth and don't get bogged down in desperate mud slinging from Team No.

Is that the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth? Or is it your bizarre notion of the truth that seems to be taken from biased websites and contentious ramblings from Salmond and his chums?

I suspect the former is the the last thing the Yes campaign would want as they are likely to stick to their current line, 'everything will be better and different but nothing will change'.

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Is that the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth? Or is it your bizarre notion of the truth that seems to be taken from biased websites and contentious ramblings from Salmond and his chums?

I suspect the former is the the last thing the Yes campaign would want as they are likely to stick to their current line, 'everything will be better and different but nothing will change'.

You lot really are obsessed with Salmond. Let it go. Live a little.

:)

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Is that the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth? Or is it your bizarre notion of the truth that seems to be taken from biased websites and contentious ramblings from Salmond and his chums?

I suspect the former is the the last thing the Yes campaign would want as they are likely to stick to their current line, 'everything will be better and different but nothing will change'.

Ah the good old unionist stand point.

I'm doing alright so thats as good as it gets.

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Cool.

Seriously though, are people actually canvassing areas asking what you are voting (both sides) and taking note, or was this a sole lunatic? I ask as I have never come across this before.

Aye, I had both campaigns at my door on Saturday.

Yes knocked on the door were very polite and happy to chat. I was more than happy to inform him I was voting Yes and was 10 on his wee independence scale :)

The BT chap shoved some leaflets through my door and scuttled away.

I wonder why he was reluctant to engage in debate?

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Is that the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth? Or is it your bizarre notion of the truth that seems to be taken from biased websites and contentious ramblings from Salmond and his chums?

I suspect the former is the the last thing the Yes campaign would want as they are likely to stick to their current line, 'everything will be better and different but nothing will change'.

How about the bizzare notion of truth that stems from the contentious ramblings of David Cameron and the outporings of a printed press who are obviously not biased, no way, they've always been papers of record and not opinion and would never, never, skew the facts to suit their own agendas.

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In terms of the polls there is an interesting divergence now between the 6 BPC pollsters. 4 of them: ICM, Survation, Panelbase and TNS all show results that require Yes to swing it from 2% to 4.5%. The other two, YouGov and Ipsos Mori show swings of 7.5% to 9% being required.

Clearly, they can't all be right. If the first 4 are closer to the truth then Yes have a great chance of winning the thing, albeit likely in the range 52/48 on the day. If the other two are right then Yes is sunk, and actually has been for a long time. Indeed, YG in particular actually showed a decrease in support for Yes this month and has remained relatively static for a long time.

I'm interested in how the pollsters have managed to divide themselves so neatly into two groups, both of which contain both internet and telephone pollsters (albeit TNS is on the fringe of the Yes friendly group).

Edited by renton
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How about the bizzare notion of truth that stems from the contentious ramblings of David Cameron and the outporings of a printed press who are obviously not biased, no way, they've always been papers of record and not opinion and would never, never, skew the facts to suit their own agendas.

That doesn't answer the question I posed.
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