renton Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Is that the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth? Or is it your bizarre notion of the truth that seems to be taken from biased websites and contentious ramblings from Salmond and his chums? I suspect the former is the the last thing the Yes campaign would want as they are likely to stick to their current line, 'everything will be better and different but nothing will change'. How about the bizzare notion of truth that stems from the contentious ramblings of David Cameron and the outporings of a printed press who are obviously not biased, no way, they've always been papers of record and not opinion and would never, never, skew the facts to suit their own agendas. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 (edited) In terms of the polls there is an interesting divergence now between the 6 BPC pollsters. 4 of them: ICM, Survation, Panelbase and TNS all show results that require Yes to swing it from 2% to 4.5%. The other two, YouGov and Ipsos Mori show swings of 7.5% to 9% being required. Clearly, they can't all be right. If the first 4 are closer to the truth then Yes have a great chance of winning the thing, albeit likely in the range 52/48 on the day. If the other two are right then Yes is sunk, and actually has been for a long time. Indeed, YG in particular actually showed a decrease in support for Yes this month and has remained relatively static for a long time. I'm interested in how the pollsters have managed to divide themselves so neatly into two groups, both of which contain both internet and telephone pollsters (albeit TNS is on the fringe of the Yes friendly group). Edited June 18, 2014 by renton 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tio Pepe Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 How about the bizzare notion of truth that stems from the contentious ramblings of David Cameron and the outporings of a printed press who are obviously not biased, no way, they've always been papers of record and not opinion and would never, never, skew the facts to suit their own agendas.That doesn't answer the question I posed. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Clearly, they can't all be right. If the first 4 are closer to the truth then Yes have a great chance of winning the thing, I don't think even if you go with those it constitutes a "great chance". A chance, but it's still a massive swing given Yes have never been ahead and No have always had a buffer throughout this seemingly interminable campaign. Yes need a massive change in fortune. Maybe the Commonwealth Games is supposed to bring that? I don't know. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 That doesn't answer the question I posed. It was a perfect definition of whataboutery. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tryfield Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Trying to call the Scottish Independence Referendum has become a nightmare with so much variation between the pollsters http://politicalbetting.com/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I don't think even if you go with those it constitutes a "great chance". A chance, but it's still a massive swing given Yes have never been ahead and No have always had a buffer throughout this seemingly interminable campaign.i Yes need a massive change in fortune. Maybe the Commonwealth Games is supposed to bring that? I don't know. Get with the programme it's bannockburn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I don't think even if you go with those it constitutes a "great chance". A chance, but it's still a massive swing given Yes have never been ahead and No have always had a buffer throughout this seemingly interminable campaign. Yes need a massive change in fortune. Maybe the Commonwealth Games is supposed to bring that? I don't know. A 2-4.5 point swing in two and a half months is not massive, given that we have seen 5 point swings month on month previously. It's not just about the size of swing, but about the rate of change as well. It's perfectly conceivable that the likes of PB or ICM could show a swing of that size in the timeframe required. It's utterly inconceivable that Ipsos and YouGov would. it's a question of who's got the right methodology. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 That doesn't answer the question I posed. It gets half of the way there. There is no absolute truth to be had here. Figures and statistics remain immutable, but the slant you put on them changes their meaning. It's up to the individual to filter through both sides versions and come to a conclusion that fits their own understanding and biases. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 A 2-4.5 point swing in two and a half months is not massive, given that we have seen 5 point swings month on month previously. It's a big difference a 5 point swing from massive No lead to slightly less massive No lead than it is from No lead to Yes lead. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 There is no absolute truth to be had here. Which is his point, and which is not the agenda the Kool Aid Krew are presenting. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 It's a big difference a 5 point swing from massive No lead to slightly less massive No lead than it is from No lead to Yes lead. Why? there is no asymptotic relationship here, no reason for folk not to change their minds as the polling gap narrows. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Why? there is no asymptotic relationship here, no reason for folk not to change their minds as the polling gap narrows. Polls have never shown Yes in the lead. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Polls have never shown Yes in the lead. And? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 (edited) Latest YouGov poll: http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/wz75xbwh76/Sun_Scotland_Results_16-Jun-2014_FINAL_W.pdf No 53% (+2) Yes 36% (-1) DK 9% Would not vote 2% Changes are from last YouGov poll in April. Excluding DK's and WNV's, that's 60-40 for no. More good news Edited June 18, 2014 by Lex 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Latest YouGov poll: http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/wz75xbwh76/Sun_Scotland_Results_16-Jun-2014_FINAL_W.pdf No 53% (+2) Yes 36% (-1) DK 9% Would not vote 2% Changes are from last YouGov poll in April. Excluding DK's and WNV's, that's 60-40 for no. More good news YouGov, you say? As you were. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 YouGov, you say? As you were. That's it, pretend it's not really happening 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 That's it, pretend it's not really happening Far be it from me, young Lexus. You've got a 20 point lead. Congratulations. You must be so proud. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Far be it from me, young Lexus. You've got a 20 point lead. Congratulations. You must be so proud. I'm more proud of the Scottish people for not buying into separation. What a nation we are 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I'm more proud of the Scottish people for not buying into separation. What a nation we are So you don't agree with Johann Lamont that nationalism is a "virus" then? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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