Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[H_B]

To be fair, your first post wasn't entirely clear on whether you meant the vote in the islands or the vote in the country.

Well, it really was, given that it was in answer to Burma's question, which I quoted, about why I stated Orkney and Shetlands would return a huge No vote in the referendum.

And was followed by a sentence that started "The SNP don't win elections there"

Edited June 20, 2014 by H_B

[ICTChris]

Neither Orkney or Shetland have any SNP councillors, although all local councillors are independent so that isn't much of an indicator.

[ecto]

Any chance of some proof of your views, ecto?

If I've got you right, you're suggesting that Salmond was the first ever politician to discount DK's from a poll in advance of a Scottish referendum.

Here's a link to Ipso-Mori figures from 1979

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2807/Scottish-Devolution-Referendum-Surveys-1979.aspx?view=wide

and a copy of the final table on the page, which shows shows voting intentions in the run-up to the poll, and the final result.

Base: All giving a referendum voting intention (i.e. repercentaged to exclude "don't knows")

12-14 February 1979 Yes 64% No 36%

20-22 February 1979 Yes 60% No 40%

27-28 February 1979 Yes 50% No 50%

Referendum result 1 March 1979 Yes 51.6% No 48.4%

Can you either specifically show that these results were issued by Salmond, or provide proof that figures that excluded "Don't Know" at were used by him at an earlier date.

Alternatively, you could confirm that you were making stuff up again?

edit to sort table formatting problems & me typing "No" where I meant to say "Don't Know" at one point

I did state this vote only, but stout defence of "yer man" for reasons I have no clue of

PS but a good read anyway

Edited June 20, 2014 by ecto

[MassiveFanDan]

People think that the Yes campaign has been more postiive with the No campaign being more negative.

However, people also think that the No campaign has been more honest.

Oooft. That's quite scary.

[lichtgilphead]

I did state this vote only, but stout defence of "yer man" for reasons I have no clue of

PS but a good read anyway

So, how about some proof that he was the first to do it during "this vote only"?

I'm starting to think you just make "facts" up and post them without thinking. Congratulations on buying into the whole "Better Together" ethos.

[ayrmad]

Oooft. That's quite scary.

I think it hints to the possibility that they've polled a certain type of voter, they won't be able to disguise it forever.

[Burma]

Well, it really was, given that it was in answer to Burma's question, which I quoted, about why I stated Orkney and Shetlands would return a huge No vote in the referendum.

And was followed by a sentence that started "The SNP don't win elections there"

The problem with the 79 results being used as a marker for anything is that the referendum was so utterly corrupt and rigged that any attempt to extrapolate the actual result is probably meaningless.

[ecto]

So, how about some proof that he was the first to do it during "this vote only"?

I'm starting to think you just make "facts" up and post them without thinking. Congratulations on buying into the whole "Better Together" ethos.

The defence of Mr Salmond on this forum, from so many is admirable, but it would appear that many on this forum care more about what people think of Alex Salmond than he does, but you have a bit of a neck of accusing me of "buying into something", on the 16th of March appeared on Andrew Marr Show, quoted a Daily Record/Survation Poll without the Dks, Blair Jenkins then used the same method on Scotland Tonight the following week, since then both sides have been at it

Edited June 21, 2014 by ecto

[Mr Bairn]

Quite frankly I don't think either of the sides have been particularly honest.

[lichtgilphead]

The defence of Mr Salmond on this forum, from so many is admirable, but it would appear that many on this forum care more about what people think of Alex Salmond than he does, but you have a bit of a neck of accusing me of "buying into something", on the 16th of March appeared on Andrew Marr Show, quoted a Daily Record/Survation Poll without the Dks, Blair Jenkins then used the same method on Scotland Tonight the following week, since then both sides have been at it

Ecto - it's not about defending Salmond. It's more about exposing the lies promoted by the No side, including your ridiculous assertion that Salmond was the first to exclude "Don't Knows" when reporting poll results.

Now you've put a date on your claim, all I need to do to prove that you are wrong is to find one earlier occurrence where someone else uses figures that exclude don't know.

A two minute google search brings up this article, by John Curtice, published on Friday 14th March 2014, in which he states "In a dozen polls conducted between September and November, the Yes vote was put on average at 38 per cent (excluding the 'don't knows'). In 13 polls fielded since the end of November through to the middle of February, however, that average has increased to 41 per cent."

http://www.ippr.org/juncture/how-the-snp-could-win-the-independence-referendum

Now, I'm not suggesting that Curtice was the first to do this, but it conclusively demonstrates that people were using figures with "Don't know" excluded before Salmonds appearance on the Andrew Marr show.

So, as we all expected, my allegation that you were talking sh*te has been proved to be correct. Congratulations (again) on buying into the whole "Better Together" ethos.

[ecto]

Ecto - it's not about defending Salmond. It's more about exposing the lies promoted by the No side, including your ridiculous assertion that Salmond was the first to exclude "Don't Knows" when reporting poll results.

Now you've put a date on your claim, all I need to do to prove that you are wrong is to find one earlier occurrence where someone else uses figures that exclude don't know.

A two minute google search brings up this article, by John Curtice, published on Friday 14th March 2014, in which he states "In a dozen polls conducted between September and November, the Yes vote was put on average at 38 per cent (excluding the 'don't knows'). In 13 polls fielded since the end of November through to the middle of February, however, that average has increased to 41 per cent."

http://www.ippr.org/juncture/how-the-snp-could-win-the-independence-referendum

Now, I'm not suggesting that Curtice was the first to do this, but it conclusively demonstrates that people were using figures with "Don't know" excluded before Salmonds appearance on the Andrew Marr show.

So, as we all expected, my allegation that you were talking sh*te has been proved to be correct. Congratulations (again) on buying into the whole "Better Together" ethos.

as usual a through answer, but reading is not your thing, Professor Curtice is NOT a politician, so the above was, well a waste of time, I made the point that Salmond on the Marr show was the 1st POLITICIAN to use this method, but am sure you will spend time on attempting to find someone who may have said it 20 minutes before Salmond did, but if that what "floats your boat" who am I to take that away from you

Edited June 21, 2014 by ecto

[lichtgilphead]

Oh dear. Keep digging, Ecto.

Same search as before with the word "Sturgeon" added throws up Nicola using figures with "Don't Knows" excluded back in January 2014.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independence-referendum-snp-claim-within-3065487

What next? Are you going to claim that Salmond was the first male politician to use this dastardly trick?

My allegation that you were talking sh*te has been proved to be correct. Congratulations (yet again) on buying into the whole "Better Together" ethos.

[ecto]

Oh dear. Keep digging, Ecto.

Same search as before with the word "Sturgeon" added throws up Nicola using figures with "Don't Knows" excluded back in January 2014.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independence-referendum-snp-claim-within-3065487

What next? Are you going to claim that Salmond was the first male politician to use this dastardly trick?

My allegation that you were talking sh*te has been proved to be correct. Congratulations (yet again) on buying into the whole "Better Together" ethos.

She is only making comment on a Daily Record poll, she is not making the claim, Salmond made the claim, deflection again keep digging, am sure you can find some junior member of the SNP who might have said it to another SNP nobody, this obviously means a lot to you

Edited June 21, 2014 by ecto

[Baxter Parp]

She is only making comment on a Daily Record poll, she is not making the claim, Salmond made the claim, deflection again keep digging, am sure you can find some junior member of the SNP who might have said it to another SNP nobody, this obviously means a lot to you

Why are you so upset about don't knows being excluded anyway?

[lichtgilphead]

She is only making comment on a Daily Record poll, she is not making the claim, Salmond made the claim

Give up, Ecto

Here's a direct quote from Sturgeon on 23rd February

SNP Depute Leader and Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: “These are very encouraging figures, indicating a two-point tightening of the gap since the last Panelbase poll two weeks ago. Yes is now at 44 per cent once ‘don’t knows’ are excluded."

http://www.government-world.com/panelbase-poll-shows-2-point-narrowing-of-gap/

Are you finally going to admit that the story you made up about Salmond was a lie?

[ecto]

Give up, Ecto

Here's a direct quote from Sturgeon on 23rd February

SNP Depute Leader and Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: “These are very encouraging figures, indicating a two-point tightening of the gap since the last Panelbase poll two weeks ago. Yes is now at 44 per cent once ‘don’t knows’ are excluded."

http://www.government-world.com/panelbase-poll-shows-2-point-narrowing-of-gap/

Are you finally going to admit that the story you made up about Salmond was a lie?

Nae luck there chief, she is only commenting on a point already made in the report, this is no different from your last attempt, carry on

What does the FM have on you, that you are so protective of him and your desire to "finger" Sturgeon?

Edited June 21, 2014 by ecto

[lichtgilphead]

Nae luck there chief, she is only commenting on a point already made in the report, this is no different from your last attempt, carry on

So, when Alex Salmond comments on a poll result, that's somehow different from Nicola Sturgeon commenting on a poll result?

Surely you're not suggesting that there is a serious difference because Alex appears to have worked out the percentage excluding DK's by himself, and Nicola has had someone do the sums for her?

What a strange view to take. Eck is a bad man because he can do arithmetic

[ecto]

Why are you so upset about don't knows being excluded anyway?

excluding the Dks, slightly skews the actual poll result, appears the side losing are doing better than they are

So, when Alex Salmond comments on a poll result, that's somehow different from Nicola Sturgeon commenting on a poll result?

Surely you're not suggesting that there is a serious difference because Alex appears to have worked out the percentage excluding DK's by himself, and Nicola has had someone do the sums for her?

What a strange view to take. Eck is a bad man because he can do arithmetic

Difference being Sturgeon commented on actual poll standing, when asked, Salmond on the Marr show quoted the poll unsolicited and did not explain how he came to his outcome

[lichtgilphead]

Difference being Sturgeon commented on actual poll standing, when asked, Salmond on the Marr show quoted the poll unsolicited and did not explain how he came to his outcome

Can you specifically point out where she was asked to comment?

As far as I can see, her quote is contained in an SNP press release. The release gives some figures, then Nicola gives her unsolicited take on what the figures mean.

I fail to see how this differs from what Eck did.

Seriously Ecto, stop digging. Admit you lied & were called on it.

[Baxter Parp]

excluding the Dks, slightly skews the actual poll result, appears the side losing are doing better than they are

Evidence?