Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[thepundit]

The currency one was answered, basically there is no plan B because we don't need one. You may find this unacceptable and vote No because of it, but that is the answer.

Salmond say's he does indeed have a plan B if the currency union is rejected, though.

So why didn't he simply say what it was?.....

[~~~]

What happens if we don't get a currency union - as everyone down South says we won't - exactly?

Read for yourself the option that was presented to the SG

We'll still use the £

[renton]

So, in terms of polls, what's left.

Survation had one at the weekend - expect we won't see them again until middle of august.

ICM - still to report for this month

YG - still to report for this month.

TNS - still to report for this month.

Think both ICM and YG are usually middle of the month with TNS a bit later. The fieldwork to date seems to take a week to ten days. TNS is something like two weeks but takes them ages to collate the data so that it's usualyl a couple fo weeks behind in terms of snapshot data. So I'm guessing that any boost to either side would be captured to some extent in the next ICM/YG polls but that the full impact would not be seen until the n+1 poll (which will be so close to the referendum you'd expect the DKs to start really shifting)

As for Panelbase and Ipsos - both tend to report every two months or so, so we may have seen the last of them, unless the customers they are serving want to accelerate that timeline.

[Tonsilitis]

Darling doesn't need to be great or make any decisive positive case, people already know what being in the union entails. The onus is squarely on Salmond and the Yes campaign to convince people that change is best, that Scotland would be better as an independent country. They failed to grasp a big opportunity tonight.

With respect, they only know what being in the union up to now entails. They have no idea of the future. We don't know what extra powers we will get. We don't know how the Barnett formula is to be changed or scrapped. We don't how much worse the deal for Scotland will be once Westminster has the independence threat removed. Last time we voted no (at least according to the rigged vote) Margaret Thatcher proceeded to decimate Scottish industry.

We do know Scotland would be at the very least capable of being a successful independent nation. There is therefore at least as big a need for Better Together to make a case for what the union will mean for Scotland going forward.

The only certainty after September is uncertainty! That applies whether there is a Yes or No vote.

[Blaven]

What happens if we don't get a currency union - as everyone down South says we won't - exactly?

What do you think will happen Lex?

[banana]

With respect, they only know what being in the union up to now entails. They have no idea of the future....

The only certainty after September is uncertainty! That applies whether there is a Yes or No vote.

With respect, only knowing something, anything up until know applies to everything, so is kind of a moot point. However, going independent is a far bigger unknown than staying in the union, whatever would come of that given a No vote.

[ayrmad]

Darling doesn't need to be great or make any decisive positive case, people already know what being in the union entails. The onus is squarely on Salmond and the Yes campaign to convince people that change is best, that Scotland would be better as an independent country. They failed to grasp a big opportunity tonight.

I think this is NO's biggest failing, they all appear to think they've got it in the bag and YES need to do something dramatic to win, currency is an issue for some but it isn't really that important to people where YES are canvassing, most people grasp the fact that what currency you use doesn't matter too much if you're skint.

[Lex]

Read for yourself the option that was presented to the SG

We'll still use the £

ImageUploadedByPie & Bovril1407317424.844291.jpg

Exactly. We will use the pound without any say in how it's run. We will surrender our currency and economy controls to a government where we are not represented. We will become more dependent on Westminster than we are at the moment.

Wonder why Salmond didn't just say that? Because he's too ashamed to admit it, would be my guess.

[Blaven]

Salmond say's he does indeed have a plan B if the currency union is rejected, though.

So why didn't he simply say what it was?.....

Let's just say it's not his proffered option, so he doesn't really want to talk about it.

It's the same as how your B team is Celtic and how you don't really want to talk about it.

[Mr Bairn]

So, in terms of polls, what's left.

Survation had one at the weekend - expect we won't see them again until middle of august.

ICM - still to report for this month

YG - still to report for this month.

TNS - still to report for this month.

Think both ICM and YG are usually middle of the month with TNS a bit later. The fieldwork to date seems to take a week to ten days. TNS is something like two weeks but takes them ages to collate the data so that it's usualyl a couple fo weeks behind in terms of snapshot data. So I'm guessing that any boost to either side would be captured to some extent in the next ICM/YG polls but that the full impact would not be seen until the n+1 poll (which will be so close to the referendum you'd expect the DKs to start really shifting)

As for Panelbase and Ipsos - both tend to report every two months or so, so we may have seen the last of them, unless the customers they are serving want to accelerate that timeline.

So what about this phantom ICM poll that showed a 4% swing to yes, then?

Or do you agree with me that snap polls conducted in about an hour with small sample sizes are completely unreliable?

[ayrmad]

Exactly. We will use the pound without any say in how it's run. We will surrender our currency and economy controls to a government where we are not represented. We will become more dependent on Westminster than we are at the moment.

Wonder why Salmond didn't just say that? Because he's too ashamed to admit it, would be my guess.

That's just twaddle, is Hong Kong dependent on America?

[ayrmad]

So what about this phantom ICM poll that showed a 4% swing to yes, then?

Or do you agree with me that snap polls conducted in about an hour with small sample sizes are completely unreliable?

Disseminating the sub sets is even more unreliable, doesn't stop Curtice and Co wanking all over anything that aids their cause.

[Mr Bairn]

Disseminating the sub sets is even more unreliable, doesn't stop Curtice and Co wanking all over anything that aids their cause.

I agree that subset dissemination shouldn't really be used. I occasionally look at the tables by region out of curiosity, but I'm under no illusions that the margin of error is sky high in such cases. The only real reliable info is the the full 1000 sample polls that should be within 3% of the true population figures, providing that both the vetting and weighting is correct.

[renton]

So what about this phantom ICM poll that showed a 4% swing to yes, then?

Or do you agree with me that snap polls conducted in about an hour with small sample sizes are completely unreliable?

Correct, it's not reliable. Doesn't stop both sides spinning it though.

[Confidemus]

The extra powers question was answered though, whereas Salmond just kept deflecting the question on currency.

In what universe was the extra powers questions answered? I suspect, no in fact I know you won't answer this as you're just a bleating sheep with no free thought.

Because he's too ashamed to admit it, would be my guess.

If I was a No voter I'd be too ashamed to admit that fact.

[Blaven]

Exactly. We will use the pound without any say in how it's run. We will surrender our currency and economy controls to a government where we are not represented. We will become more dependent on Westminster than we are at the moment.

Wonder why Salmond didn't just say that? Because he's too ashamed to admit it, would be my guess.

How strong do you envisage the UK pound being without Scotland's input either in or out of a CU ?

Sanctions on those Russian oligarchs has potential to cripple London.

[Double Jack D]

What happens if we don't get a currency union - as everyone down South says we won't - exactly?

I've no idea.

The Currency issue was answered, there is no plan B because the Currency Union will happen. That was Salmonds answer, he doesn't have a plan B because he doesn't feel he needs one.

If that answer means you have to vote No then so be it but don't say there wasn't an answer, there was. I believe him, I genuinely think there will be a Currency Union. Maybe I'm wrong, time will tell.

Now, What were the extra powers guaranteed to Scotland should we vote No? Someone said this was answered but I genuinely didn't hear/ understand what these were. I'd be interested in increased devolution as an option and was surprised it wasn't on the ballot as I think most Scots would be. So far all references to more powers have been dependent on the outcome of the 2015 GE. This effectively places them in the hands of the English electorate unless we get some guarantees just now.

[ayrmad]

I agree that subset dissemination shouldn't really be used. I occasionally look at the tables by region out of curiosity, but I'm under no illusions that the margin of error is sky high in such cases. The only real reliable info is the the full 1000 sample polls that should be within 3% of the true population figures, providing that both the vetting and weighting is correct.

Even on samples of 1000 they're unreliable if they're up/down weighting subsets significantly.

[Mr Bairn]

Even on samples of 1000 they're unreliable if they're up/down weighting subsets significantly.

Which is why they need to be confident that their vetting techniques are reliable. I quite often take part on opinion polls for both yougov and panelbase. They start off with questions about your demographic, before deciding whether or not you are allowed to take part in the poll itself

[ayrmad]

Which is why they need to be confident that their vetting techniques are reliable. I quite often take part on opinion polls for both yougov and panelbase. They start off with questions about your demographic, before deciding whether or not you are allowed to take part in the poll itself

Yes, but when their demographics are off they don't highlight why a particular poll might be a bit misleading, last nights was a joke, 17-34,Glasgow,Fife, South/West, SNP, Other and Did Not Vote in 2011 were all up/down weighted to ridiculous amounts.