Confidemus Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Has Ladbrokes been saying anything today? Why yes, yes they have: Saturday 30th August 2014 | 11:05 Ladbrokes: Scottish punters move decisively for YES - 95% of Scottish bets for YES since second debate Ladbrokes press release *Scottish punters move decisively for YES* SCOTTISH POLITICAL punters have moved decisively for a YES vote in next month's referendum, according to new analysis released by Ladbrokes. The bookies found that since the second debate last Monday, over 95% of all bets placed in Scotland have been for YES. That has seen the odds tumble from 9/2 to 7/2 in just a few days. However, gamblers in England are less convinced, with over 75% of the money staked south of the border going on a NO vote. A breakdown of the betting reveals that the larger-staking customers south of the border are propping up the 'no' odds, with those on the ground in Scotland placing smaller bets much keener to back a 'yes' outcome. Alex Donohue of Ladbrokes said: "The betting has been non-stop for YES from our Scottish customers since Alex Salmond's victory in the second debate. It will be a terrible result for the bookies if the local money is correct." 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Why yes, yes they have: Saturday 30th August 2014 | 11:05 Ladbrokes: Scottish punters move decisively for YES - 95% of Scottish bets for YES since second debate Ladbrokes press release *Scottish punters move decisively for YES* SCOTTISH POLITICAL punters have moved decisively for a YES vote in next month's referendum, according to new analysis released by Ladbrokes. The bookies found that since the second debate last Monday, over 95% of all bets placed in Scotland have been for YES. That has seen the odds tumble from 9/2 to 7/2 in just a few days. However, gamblers in England are less convinced, with over 75% of the money staked south of the border going on a NO vote. A breakdown of the betting reveals that the larger-staking customers south of the border are propping up the 'no' odds, with those on the ground in Scotland placing smaller bets much keener to back a 'yes' outcome. Alex Donohue of Ladbrokes said: "The betting has been non-stop for YES from our Scottish customers since Alex Salmond's victory in the second debate. It will be a terrible result for the bookies if the local money is correct." Will need to wait for Lex to let us know what it all means. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 (edited) Will need to wait for Lex to let us know what it all means. I can exclusively reveal that Lex contacted me earlier regarding this. Here's his statement: "If you look at it, it seems there's 4 horses in a 2 horse race. 3 of them are odds on, the other 6 are long shots. And by the way NO WILL WIN, THERE'S NO POINT VOTING YES, NO POINT I TELL YOU, STAY IN YOUR HOMES, DON'T BOTHER VOTING, ABANDON ALL HOPE". Edited August 30, 2014 by Confidemus 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 I can exclusively reveal that Lex contacted me earlier regarding this. Here's his statement: "If you look at it, it seems there's 4 horses in a 2 horse race. 3 of them are odds on, the other 6 are long shots. And by the way NO WILL WIN, THERE'S NO POINT VOTING YES, NO POINT I TELL YOU, STAY IN YOUR HOMES, DON'T BOTHER VOTING, ABANDON ALL HOPE". Yip. That sounds like Lex. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaikuHibee Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 I can exclusively reveal that Lex contacted me earlier regarding this. Here's his statement: "If you look at it, it seems there's 4 horses in a 2 horse race. 3 of them are odds on, the other 6 are long shots. And by the way NO WILL WIN, THERE'S NO POINT VOTING YES, NO POINT I TELL YOU, STAY IN YOUR HOMES, DON'T BOTHER VOTING, ABANDON ALL HOPE". That's not Lex, no way. That message has some premise, and sentence structure. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Murray Mints Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Any Sunday polls leaking tonight ? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 As previously stated on here I know nothing about gambling so am willing to be corrected but... Surely the number of people placing bets on something isn't necessarily an indicator that it's going to happen? I'd imagine that English bookies took plenty of bets on England to win the World cup or the Ladbrokes on Easter Road takes lots of bets on Hibs to win but that doesn't mean it's likely. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.Bojangles Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 I don't know much about betting, but I was told the Bookies normally want to have equal betting on either side so they make their money on the fee rather than the odds. So as you get close to the event the odds are highly reflective of the volume of bets on either side. That could just be in America, though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Saw this on Twitter. Those who watched the debates Yes - 47.1% No - 44% UD - 8.9% Those who didn't watch the debates Yes - 27.4% No - 52.5% UD - 20.1% From Survation. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 (edited) http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/30/independence-referendum-scotland-vote-women Scottish women may swing the referendum vote with three weeks to goAs the yes campaign reached 47%, signs of a switch by women, who polls showed had been supporters of the union, could be decisive An independence supporter hands out campaign leaflets in Glasgow. Photograph: Danny Lawson/PA Less than three weeks before the referendum on Scottish independence, the forces of nationalism have suddenly appeared on the final bend of the campaign race and are picking up the pace. One poll last week put the yes vote on 47%, but the "no" campaign has been quick to point out that, as every previously published poll has shown, they still hold the lead. However, the gap has never been so small. The momentum appears to be with the yes campaign. The bounce in the yes vote may be no more than to be expected following Alex Salmond's besting of Alistair Darling, leader of the Better Together campaign, in last Monday's televised head-to-head debate between the two. Such increases in these circumstances are fragile and can easily evaporate. Scotland, though, has been here before. In 2011, a few weeks before the Holyrood election, Labour held a healthy, double-digit lead over the nationalists. Within a few weeks that lead was wiped out in a gargantuan swing which returned Salmond as first minister and gave his party a clear overall majority, something Scotland's post-devolution voting engineering had been supposedly designed to prevent. This time, yes activists are beginning to believe lightning might strike twice. They claim to be polling particularly well in solidly working-class enclaves, the very ones that rejected Scottish Labour three years ago. In one of those enclaves, a community hall in Govan on the southern banks of the Clyde, members of another social constituency are also having their say. These are the women who frequent the Tea in the Pot drop-in centre, 14 of whom have gathered to discuss independence issues with the Observer. The women of Scotland may yet hold the key to victory in this campaign. At the outset, there was a clear majority among them for the no side, a consequence, it had been thought, of Salmond's unpopularity among them. Soon a debate is under way. These are strong women who have perhaps encountered some pain and mistreatment in their lives. They express their frustration that, despite invitations to both the yes and no camps to organise an all-women panel debate on independence, no response has been forthcoming from either side. Voting intentions among them show yes has a lead of nine to five. Three – all of them yeses – have already used their postal vote. Every one of the others intends to vote on 18 September. They express eloquent frustration at the lack of women in politics, though each knows about and admires Nicola Sturgeon, deputy first minister and one of the local MSPs. Soon a well-informed exchange about the "bedroom tax" and food banks is under way. "Even people in work are using these because they're not being paid enough to run a family and their benefits are being cut or are deliberately delayed," I'm told. Their top three issues are: privatisation of the NHS; the challenges faced by single-parent families; and properly paid jobs for young people. One of the senior members of the group, Ruby, is a confirmed no voter: "I love the UK and, over the years, it's been good to me. I would hate to see the breakup of the kingdom." A younger woman with children and stepchildren dismissed all the UK celebrities who have been love-bombing Scotland: "They always used to say we were a drain on resources and didn't pay our way. Now they can't get enough of us." The great debate that has swept Scotland in recent months, across all social classes, is about to reach its climax. Time is running out in the battle to win over the undecided in places like this community centre. In the 18 days that remain of the campaign, two events may yet have a crucial bearing on the outcome. The first is on 5 September, when STV hosts its second live debate which will feature two panels of three prominent figures from each side. Speaking for Yes are Nicola Sturgeon, Scottish Green Party co-convener Patrick Harvie MSP, and actress Elaine C Smith. The No team will be Labour shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander, Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, and Kezia Dugdale, Labour MSP. Then on 13 September, the last Saturday before the vote, comes an event which has elicited delicious discomfort in both camps, when the Grand Orange Lodge of Scotland is organising a march of up to 15,000 of its members through Edinburgh in support for the union. Privately, some in the no camp are dreading this event for fear that it may drive some undecided Catholics into voting yes, while the nationalist camp has simply refrained from making any comment in case it antagonises a significant and committed 50,000 membership body which feels it has a dog in this fight and, like all other participants, has a right to express its views. The next three weeks are certainly going to be lively. Edited August 31, 2014 by Confidemus 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 I don't know much about betting, but I was told the Bookies normally want to have equal betting on either side so they make their money on the fee rather than the odds. So as you get close to the event the odds are highly reflective of the volume of bets on either side. That could just be in America, though. This isn't true for obvious reasons... either in America or anyplace else. Betting odds can be amended by bets placed of course but its still about probabilities. If Celtic are 1/100 to beat White hill Welfare there is likely to be close to zero money on Celtic. Meanwhile 50 Welfare fans may well choose to stick a 10er on them as a bit of fun at 16 to 1 say or whatever their price is. This doesn't mean they become odds on favourites for the match. Volume of bets is irrelevant. One 1 million bet for No and 500,000 £1 bets for Yes say. All that is of interest is the amount taken in a market like this. What bookmakers will seek to do is not offer either side at better odds than their true chances of victory. Even if bets are only placed on Yes from now til Ref Day that may mean the price contracts but it doesn't mean they wont still be very much odds against 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 This isn't true for obvious reasons... either in America or anyplace else. Betting odds can be amended by bets placed of course but its still about probabilities. If Celtic are 1/100 to beat White hill Welfare there is likely to be close to zero money on Celtic. Meanwhile 50 Welfare fans may well choose to stick a 10er on them as a bit of fun at 16 to 1 say or whatever their price is. This doesn't mean they become odds on favourites for the match. Volume of bets is irrelevant. One 1 million bet for No and 500,000 £1 bets for Yes say. All that is of interest is the amount taken in a market like this. What bookmakers will seek to do is not offer either side at better odds than their true chances of victory. Even if bets are only placed on Yes from now til Ref Day that may mean the price contracts but it doesn't mean they wont still be very much odds against I thought you only posted on here when you were at work Anthony? What's the matter, is there an emergency "switch it off and back on again" situation at your work? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AberdeenBud Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Hope that LOL march gets good coverage, could be good for swinging undecideds. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 This isn't true for obvious reasons... either in America or anyplace else. Betting odds can be amended by bets placed of course but its still about probabilities. If Celtic are 1/100 to beat White hill Welfare there is likely to be close to zero money on Celtic. Meanwhile 50 Welfare fans may well choose to stick a 10er on them as a bit of fun at 16 to 1 say or whatever their price is. This doesn't mean they become odds on favourites for the match. Volume of bets is irrelevant. One 1 million bet for No and 500,000 £1 bets for Yes say. All that is of interest is the amount taken in a market like this. What bookmakers will seek to do is not offer either side at better odds than their true chances of victory. Even if bets are only placed on Yes from now til Ref Day that may mean the price contracts but it doesn't mean they wont still be very much odds against Which implies that the current best odds of 3/1 on a Yes should be higher. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Which implies that the current best odds of 3/1 on a Yes should be higher. Not sure who has said the best odds on Yes are 3/1? Bet365 certainly have them at 7/2. Haven't checked any others. One interesting bet Hills have is Salmond to step down before the 2015 election... Yes 2/1 No 4/11 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 And obviously there is an over round built into every market. Because option A is 5/1 doesn't mean you can bet that not to happen at 1/5. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 H_B rattled again. Pleasing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 H_B rattled again. Pleasing. Aww. Its really cute that i have a coterie of clowns so utterly seething that they follow me like a pack of chihuahuas. Absolutely tremendous... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Not sure who has said the best odds on Yes are 3/1? Bet365 certainly have them at 7/2. Haven't checked any others. One interesting bet Hills have is Salmond to step down before the 2015 election... Yes 2/1 No 4/11 I think that was on the exchanges. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Aww. Its really cute that i have a coterie of clowns so utterly seething that they follow me like a pack of chihuahuas. Absolutely tremendous... Is coterie the collective noun for clowns? I would have thought "clutch" would be better. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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