ayrmad Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 We need another 58/42 poll for NO, the activity levels on these threads always drop when it appears that YES are close to victory. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 We need another 58/42 poll for NO, the activity levels on these threads always drop when it appears that YES are close to victory. When have Yes appeared close to victory? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 When have Yes appeared close to victory? Never ever ever, I don't even understand why we continue to canvas the country. Choo chooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phantom Bud Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Just checked and the Yes over/under at Laddies is actually 43.5%. even better looking odds is 7/2 on Yes polling in the 45-50 range. Might need to lump that one. Paddy Power had the line at 43.5% for the last couple of weeks so I'm not surprised Ladbrokes have now moved theirs. I still think it's a good bet, would be very surprised if Yes polls under 45%. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I'm surprised we haven't had more polls since the second debate. Are there any due? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I'm surprised we haven't had more polls since the second debate. Are there any due? Nobody knows. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Interesting.... Polls say Scotland will spurn independence, but are they right? http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/31/uk-scotland-independence-polls-idUKKBN0GV08B20140831 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 While I don't trust the polls, have you noticed how now they are much closer how the mainstream media has suddenly stopped posting them, or if they do they are no longer as prominent. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 While I don't trust the polls, have you noticed how now they are much closer how the mainstream media has suddenly stopped posting them, or if they do they are no longer as prominent. Reputations now at stake. As mentioned many times before they all can't be right given how different they are right now. YouGov gave a rise to the Yes side of 4% in one week and that was after to first Salmond v Darling TV debate. YouGov in particular haven't been kind to the Yes vote in the past. But either they have got it drastically wrong or pollsters like Panelbase have. Clock is ticking and you will see a large swing to Yes or a large drop in Yes support as pollsters try and get it right for polling day 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 While I don't trust the polls, have you noticed how now they are much closer how the mainstream media has suddenly stopped posting them, or if they do they are no longer as prominent. The media do as their Telt. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 The paranoia surrounding polls is getting a bit Mitt Romney-esque tbh. There are good methodological concerns in terms of weighting a one-off referendum to any GE voting intentions, and turnout being predicted far higher than any election in living memory. Yet every polling company would have to be making the same mistakes in every single poll for Yes to be holding a phantom lead instead. That's almost certainly not the case. The point that is worth being made, rather, is that the methodology may well be exaggerating the margin required between now and the referendum for Yes to overhaul. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 The paranoia surrounding polls is getting a bit Mitt Romney-esque tbh. There are good methodological concerns in terms of weighting a one-off referendum to any GE voting intentions, and turnout being predicted far higher than any election in living memory. Yet every polling company would have to be making the same mistakes in every single poll for Yes to be holding a phantom lead instead. That's almost certainly not the case. The point that is worth being made, rather, is that the methodology may well be exaggerating the margin required between now and the referendum for Yes to overhaul. I think the issue is that some people see the activity for Yes on social media and equate that with overall popularity. There will be a large section of the electorate for whom this referendum has largely passed them by so far - folk who don't go near social media or don't particularly have a deep-seated interest in any kind of politics. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I think the issue is that some people see the activity for Yes on social media and equate that with overall popularity. There will be a large section of the electorate for whom this referendum has largely passed them by so far - folk who don't go near social media or don't particularly have a deep-seated interest in any kind of politics. Who will ALL vote Yes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Im hearing yougov 47% yes 53% no,take out the ud,if its correct thats a great leap on yougov for yes 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Im hearing yougov 47% yes 53% no,take out the ud,if its correct thats a great leap on yougov for yes Tick tock, motherfriggers! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Im hearing yougov 47% yes 53% no,take out the ud,if its correct thats a great leap on yougov for yes I'll wait 'til 10 and see what they say. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaikuHibee Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Im hearing yougov 47% yes 53% no,take out the ud,if its correct thats a great leap on yougov for yes No that's Survation. If YouGov shows that, we've won. I would bet on Yes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 No that's Survation. If YouGov shows that, we've won. I would bet on Yes. That would be more plausible. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Bystander Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Yeah, I seriously doubt YouGov polls say that. If it does a, perhaps they've stopped taking their polls in the Louden Tavern. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 (edited) No that's Survation. If YouGov shows that, we've won. I would bet on Yes. yougov it is Nick Robinson @bbcnickrobinson 16m Interviewing @AlexSalmond in the morning at a distillery. He'll be smiling & may even raise a glass when he sees latest YouGov poll Expand Edited September 1, 2014 by doulikefish 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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