DeeTillEhDeh Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 "Professional" would imply he has a clue what he's doing. Some of these guys would bet on flies moving on shit. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Ladbrokes still offering odds of 10/11 on Yes getting over 42.5% of the vote. 10/11 is typically a "50-50" bet. You risk £11 to win £10. Yes getting over 42.5% seems 50-50 to me. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaikuHibee Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 10/11 is typically a "50-50" bet. You risk £11 to win £10. Yes getting over 42.5% seems 50-50 to me. Well, thanks for that Bairn. No uni parties tonight? Fireworks and straw polls? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Well, thanks for that Bairn. No uni parties tonight? Fireworks and straw polls? Not tonight mate. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 10/11 is typically a "50-50" bet. You risk £11 to win £10. Yes getting over 42.5% seems 50-50 to me. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumper Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Yes getting over 42.5% seems 50-50 to me. Salmond would have to personally locate and reanimate Osama Bin Laden's corpse for the Yes vote to finish below 43%. Absolutely buying money. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bendan Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Salmond would have to personally locate and reanimate Osama Bin Laden's corpse for the Yes vote to finish below 43%. Absolutely buying money. Well the MSM might try a story like this, given that we are already hearing Brown Shirts, Gestapo et al with increasing frequency. There really don't seem to be any limits. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted September 1, 2014 Author Share Posted September 1, 2014 Salmond would have to personally locate and reanimate Osama Bin Laden's corpse for the Yes vote to finish below 43%. Absolutely buying money. Bookmarked. How much you got on it then? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Ladbrokes still offering odds of 10/11 on Yes getting over 42.5% of the vote. That is an outstanding bet if true. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Another reason to vote Yes. Anyone who has this much money to gamble with deserves to lose. Bell-end of the highest order. Eh? Why is he a bell-end for doing this? It's an investment - same as any other investment that "may go down as well as up". Would he be a bell-end if he bought 1 million pounds worth of Apple shares? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 "Professional" would imply he has a clue what he's doing. He does! He is spotting value on an outcome he has determined is more likely that the odds indicate. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 That is an outstanding bet if true. It really is. Neither side is going to get below 45%. No could easily win 53-47 but if Yes wins it could be as tight as 51-49. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 It really is. Neither side is going to get below 45%. No could easily win 53-47 but if Yes wins it could be as tight as 51-49. Yeah, the chances of Yes getting over 42.5 % should be closer to 10 to 1 on than 10/11. Im skeptical this is true. Wouldn't mind seeing a screengrab of the bet's availability. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Haven't had a chance to look in to this yet but I heard opinion polls base their methodology on their being a 50-60% turnout. If there is a turnout of say 80% then their accuracy could be wildly out. So how much does the accuracy decrease by if 1001 people are polled based on a 80% turnout rather than a 60% turnout? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Just checked and the Yes over/under at Laddies is actually 43.5% even better looking odds is 7/2 on Yes polling in the 45-50 range. Might need to lump that one. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 (edited) Just checked and the Yes over/under at Laddies is actually 43.5% even better looking odds is 7/2 on Yes polling in the 45-50 range. Might need to lump that one. You'd do better to lump some cash on Yes getting over 50%. Because it WILL happen. Edited September 1, 2014 by Confidemus 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 You know, Confi, I'm starting to think it might just happen. In saying that the current odds seem to be underselling Yes's probabilities. I'll wait and see if she drifts out a little bit towards 5s or 6s 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Just checked and the Yes over/under at Laddies is actually 43.5% even better looking odds is 7/2 on Yes polling in the 45-50 range. Might need to lump that one. Still think > 43.5 is decent value, but obviously not as much of a cert. Can't see Yes getting any less than 44 or any more than 48, so yeah, 7/2 is very decent for that range also. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 You know, Confi, I'm starting to think it might just happen. In saying that the current odds seem to be underselling Yes's probabilities. I'll wait and see if she drifts out a little bit towards 5s or 6s I'm confident of Yes getting in the 53 - 58% range. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mo Wonderboy Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 It is worth dutching up the 45-50% with Ladbrokes at 7/2 with the 50-54% with VC at 5/1 which combine for just a shade under 13/8. Not saying that it will land but is certainly where the value is. Personally I would have the 45-54% priced up about 1/3ish at minimum. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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