Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[Confidemus]

Killiefc.com Poll latest:

Poll: Independence Poll NO 24 (17.02%) YES 109 (77.3%) Not going to be voting 8 (5.67%)

[Colkitto]

Almost certain tomorrow's polls will show a drop in Yes support. Unionist so predictable you can script it!

We can see what's happening on the ground. I can see a final manipulation of polls

[ICTChris]

Almost certain tomorrow's polls will show a drop in Yes support. Unionist so predictable you can script it!

We can see what's happening on the ground. I can see a final manipulation of polls

If Yes are going to win don't you think companies like Survation, YouGov, Panelbase etc would want to predict it?

If Yes wins against the polls it'll be a disaster for polling companies - the biggest since they didn't get the 1992 election right. Why would they be so keen for this?

Edited September 6, 2014 by ICTChris

[Confidemus]

If Yes are going to win don't you think companies like Survation, YouGov, Panelbase etc would want to predict it?

If Yes wins against the polls it'll be a disaster for polling companies - the biggest since they didn't get the 1992 election right. Why would they be so keen for this?

Because, like Labour, their desperation to maintain the Union supercedes their principles.

[AUFC90]

If Yes are going to win don't you think companies like Survation, YouGov, Panelbase etc would want to predict it?

If Yes wins against the polls it'll be a disaster for polling companies - the biggest since they didn't get the 1992 election right. Why would they be so keen for this?

They can quite easily say that referendums are notoriously hard to predict etc. The entire British establishment is mobilising for one last push. I wouldn't put anything past them.

[Confidemus]

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/

A small correction to yesterday's post : Ivor Knox of Panelbase sent me an email earlier today to clarify that all of his firm's polls for the Sunday Times have been commissioned by the Scottish edition of the paper, whereas the upcoming YouGov poll has been commissioned by the UK edition. So Panelbase haven't been sidelined, although Mr Knox stressed that he couldn't say whether they'd be conducting any further referendum polls for the Sunday Times.

That still leaves the mystery of who commissioned the Panelbase poll that has been in the field this week - perhaps we'll find out over the next couple of days.

[H_B]

That's one way of looking at it. What if they didn't want it released because it showed a large lead? Maybe not wanting activists to become complacent?

Ahhahahhahahhahahhaha

A. Hahhahahahhahhahhaha

[Confidemus]

Ahhahahhahahhahahhaha

A. Hahhahahahhahhahhaha

Bloody hell, working two Saturdays in a row, Anthony?

Whats today's I.T. meltdown all about? Have they tried switching it off and back on again?

[Well Well]

Ahhahahhahahhahahhaha

A. Hahhahahahhahhahhaha

I love your insightful and educated comments on this forum.

[AberdeenBud]

Because, like Labour, their desperation to maintain the Union supercedes their principles.

They can quite easily say that referendums are notoriously hard to predict etc. The entire British establishment is mobilising for one last push. I wouldn't put anything past them.

Tinfoil hat stuff lads.

The polling companies will place their professional reputation above any perceived desire to maintain the Union. Not to mention those that are commissioned by Yes Scotland.

[AUFC90]

Tinfoil hat stuff lads.

The polling companies will place their professional reputation above any perceived desire to maintain the Union. Not to mention those that are commissioned by Yes Scotland.

Really ? The polls have been miles out for months.

[Confidemus]

Remember that in most cases, polls are representative of people who have signed up to be part of a polling panel.

This referendum is unlike any other campaign and has energised and mobilised people who have never before had any interest in politics and who certainly wouldn't register with a polling company.

This, I feel, is partially why the polls have always been under-representative of the large grassroots Yes movement.

[ayrmad]

I expect support for YES to fall in the next Yougov poll, 8% is a big swing in 3 weeks.

[Colkitto]

If Yes are going to win don't you think companies like Survation, YouGov, Panelbase etc would want to predict it?

If Yes wins against the polls it'll be a disaster for polling companies - the biggest since they didn't get the 1992 election right. Why would they be so keen for this?

Who knows what they will predict next week? From last Sunday the stuffing has been knocked out the No campaign over the YouGov poll.

They won't want another week like last week that's for sure. We know the polls have been manipulated in the past and YouGov have been one of the biggest culprits, that's why they had to play catch up with other pollsters showing large swings.

No way the Yes vote has fallen back this week, far from it. Any poll suggesting it has is wrong.

[AberdeenBud]

Remember that in most cases, polls are representative of people who have signed up to be part of a polling panel.

This referendum is unlike any other campaign and has energised and mobilised people who have never before had any interest in politics and who certainly wouldn't register with a polling company.

This, I feel, is partially why the polls have always been under-representative of the large grassroots Yes movement.

This is a valid point and completely different from saying the Pollsters are deliberately underestimating Yes support to try and influence the outcome.

[Mr. Bojangles]

Remember that in most cases, polls are representative of people who have signed up to be part of a polling panel.

This referendum is unlike any other campaign and has energised and mobilised people who have never before had any interest in politics and who certainly wouldn't register with a polling company.

This, I feel, is partially why the polls have always been under-representative of the large grassroots Yes movement.

Fantastic point. Yeah, I signed up to Yougov and Panelbase because I was interested in politics. Couldn't care less about the ones where I have to say which kind of vacuum cleaner or fabric softener I've heard of (but I fill them in anyway). Come to think of it, why are either side even listening to the polls at all for this campaign?

[Casual Bystander]

Yeah, I really don't think there is anyone pressurising the pollsters.

Do I think they are getting it wrong? Yes. Maliciously? No.

[Blaven]

Who knows what they will predict next week? From last Sunday the stuffing has been knocked out the No campaign over the YouGov poll.

They won't want another week like last week that's for sure. We know the polls have been manipulated in the past and YouGov have been one of the biggest culprits, that's why they had to play catch up with other pollsters showing large swings.

No way the Yes vote has fallen back this week, far from it. Any poll suggesting it has is wrong.

I must admit I had thought something like that myself.

With my tinfoil hat on, I was pondering that if the vote was close, would it be more believable to get away with a wee bit of jiggerypokery if YES had never had ANY polling showing them in the lead at any time?

[Tadénator]

Bearing in mind that Yes seems to have a much larger online presence than the No campaign, would it not follow that more Yes voters are likely to have signed up to answer polls than No voters? I'm not really sure how these things work - do they only ask people who registered with them before the campaign began?

Edited September 6, 2014 by Tadénator

[Mr Heliums]

Isn't there a margin of error of around 3% in these polls? That would mean that if 'real' yes opinion showed a steady rise from 42 per cent to 44 per cent and then 46 per cent in a series of polls, this could show up as 45 per cent, 44 per cent and 43 per cent in the polls.

I'm not saying it is that way – it could also work against the Yes campaign for the same reason – but it's possible and is why a lot of people advise not taking polls too seriously unless the trend is continuing.

Like others, I'd doubt the pollsters would provide misleading figures – the only area where they have been occasionally murky is in the way they frame the question, which is presumably provided by the organisation paying them to do the poll.