Confidemus Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Girl that interviewed me for the Survation poll said good luck as she said thanks for taking part. Don't know if they say that to everyone but thought it was a nice touch. Don't know when the poll is going to be released. Said she didn't know.......slut. Did she sound sexy? The wee poll-cat. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Except they haven't. If you exclude rUK, the number of bets placed on a Yes vote has been far, far, far higher than the number of bets placed on a No vote. The stakes placed on a No vote have been far higher. Yeah? That's right! Super. Out of interest, how much has been bet on Yes and No respectively? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 So you think the opinion of the voting public is irrelevant when forming an opinion on the outcome of a public vote? I think the opinion of the voting public is relevant. That's why professional polls showing movement has adjusted the odds. Asking jaikies in bookmakers their views isn't important. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Yeah? That's right! Super. Out of interest, how much has been bet on Yes and No respectively? I don't have specifics to hand, but if you look at the post at the top of this page it will give you an idea. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Did she sound sexy? The wee poll-cat. Aye she did actually.. thought I was in as I sounded quite sexy too ... Got a feeling she'll phone back later for a chat 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milners Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) They couldn't pay out on the exchange though, it would be financial suicide. Never said they were obviously they get about 3.5% over 9 Million that will be traded. Edited September 16, 2014 by Milners 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Moonster Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I posted on this yesterday or the day before. I can't be bothered adding to it. I trust what I have heard on this. Where did you post this? Wouldn't mind reading it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 The odds for this were not worked out based on probability. There was a strategic decision made to offer "No" at very short odds with the expectancy of flushing out big stakes south of the border who wanted a good return on a short term investment on something that was seen by many as an almost certain outcome. That is exactly what has happened. Bookies exist to make money. If there is a yes vote, they will make money. That is all I am saying on it. In fact, if we go back to this.... what you are saying is that the bookmakers' strategy was to "flush out" big stakes on No by err, having it at really poor odds. This worked a treat, and now they face losses on the back of it if it's a No vote. Given that there will be a No vote, this is a disaster for them. So how does that square with your "Bookies exist to make money" claim? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Where did you post this? Wouldn't mind reading it. I'm merely speculating, but imagine a group of bookies decided to use their Scottish branches to scout opinion on the referendum. Imagine they received feedback from their branches showing a massive amount of pro yes sentiment compared to no. Imagine they were surprised at that. Imagine they thought that their original expectation of Yes as an outside bet was wrong by some distance. Imagine that they thought they could profit from this by offering very short odds on a No vote, expecting that most high stakes punters would think the establishment will make sure a No vote is certain. Imagine lots of high stakes bets going on a No vote at very short odds, from people who were certain it was a relatively risk free way to get a good return on an investment over a 2 year period. Imagine the bookies limiting the maximum stake you can place on a Yes vote to ensure they do not pay out too much if that decision is the one that comes out, ensuring that a Yes vote makes them a big profit. Merely speculation, of course. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) In fact, if we go back to this.... what you are saying is that the bookmakers' strategy was to "flush out" big stakes on No by err, having it at really poor odds. This worked a treat, and now they face losses on the back of it if it's a No vote. Given that there will be a No vote, this is a disaster for them. So how does that square with your "Bookies exist to make money" claim? We'll find out on Friday. The people they were aiming to get would not be looking at it as a bet at poor odds, they would be looking at it as a safe, short term investment with a very high yield. Edited September 16, 2014 by Ross. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Aye she did actually.. thought I was in as I sounded quite sexy too ... Got a feeling she'll phone back later for a chat I hope you told her you had a pole that she'd enjoy taking...... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I hope you told her you had a pole that she'd enjoy taking...... No, but I'll use that line if you don't mind Survation poll is for the Daily Mail and will be released tonight at 10.30pm 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamaldo Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 No, but I'll use that line if you don't mind Survation poll is for the Daily Mail and will be released tonight at 10.30pm Well a definite No lead in that one then. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Moonster Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Cheers! If your mere speculation is true, I may have to change my pants. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 So, if there is a No vote, you will be completely wrong? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WullieBroonIsGod Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 User Actions Following McBookie@McBookie Cards on the table. As a Scottish company we will lose a fortune if there is a Yes vote- mainly because everyone keeps backing Yes!!! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 The people they were aiming to get would not be looking at it as a bet at poor odds, they would be looking at it as a safe, short term investment with a very high yield. Well, yeah. I've said all along it's a good return on investment. But still stupid. Anyone who bet No at 1/6 or 1/7 as several high rollers did should have waited. The odds on No were always going to contract nearer the event. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Well a definite No lead in that one then. Think you can guarantee that as it will be announced by ultra Unionist Daily Mail journo Alan Roden 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 So, if there is a No vote, you will be completely wrong? If there is a No vote I'll wish I had dismissed what I was told as I had done originally. I was told this about 9 months ago and reminded of it around a fortnight ago. With other data being made available in the time in between, I think it has far more behind it than it did when I was told the first time. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigMartyn86 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I wouldn't read too much into betfair paying out on a No vote. A nice publicity stunt from them on behalf of the No campaign. Considering their co owner is the grandson of a ex Tory MP it was probably the least he could do. (Apologies if some on had already mentioned this. I can't be fucked checking) http://www.bettinggods.com/andrew-black-betfair-co-founder/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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