Ross. Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Yeah? That's right! Super. Out of interest, how much has been bet on Yes and No respectively? I don't have specifics to hand, but if you look at the post at the top of this page it will give you an idea. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Did she sound sexy? The wee poll-cat. Aye she did actually.. thought I was in as I sounded quite sexy too ... Got a feeling she'll phone back later for a chat 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milners Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) They couldn't pay out on the exchange though, it would be financial suicide. Never said they were obviously they get about 3.5% over 9 Million that will be traded. Edited September 16, 2014 by Milners 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Moonster Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I posted on this yesterday or the day before. I can't be bothered adding to it. I trust what I have heard on this. Where did you post this? Wouldn't mind reading it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 The odds for this were not worked out based on probability. There was a strategic decision made to offer "No" at very short odds with the expectancy of flushing out big stakes south of the border who wanted a good return on a short term investment on something that was seen by many as an almost certain outcome. That is exactly what has happened. Bookies exist to make money. If there is a yes vote, they will make money. That is all I am saying on it. In fact, if we go back to this.... what you are saying is that the bookmakers' strategy was to "flush out" big stakes on No by err, having it at really poor odds. This worked a treat, and now they face losses on the back of it if it's a No vote. Given that there will be a No vote, this is a disaster for them. So how does that square with your "Bookies exist to make money" claim? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Where did you post this? Wouldn't mind reading it. I'm merely speculating, but imagine a group of bookies decided to use their Scottish branches to scout opinion on the referendum. Imagine they received feedback from their branches showing a massive amount of pro yes sentiment compared to no. Imagine they were surprised at that. Imagine they thought that their original expectation of Yes as an outside bet was wrong by some distance. Imagine that they thought they could profit from this by offering very short odds on a No vote, expecting that most high stakes punters would think the establishment will make sure a No vote is certain. Imagine lots of high stakes bets going on a No vote at very short odds, from people who were certain it was a relatively risk free way to get a good return on an investment over a 2 year period. Imagine the bookies limiting the maximum stake you can place on a Yes vote to ensure they do not pay out too much if that decision is the one that comes out, ensuring that a Yes vote makes them a big profit. Merely speculation, of course. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) In fact, if we go back to this.... what you are saying is that the bookmakers' strategy was to "flush out" big stakes on No by err, having it at really poor odds. This worked a treat, and now they face losses on the back of it if it's a No vote. Given that there will be a No vote, this is a disaster for them. So how does that square with your "Bookies exist to make money" claim? We'll find out on Friday. The people they were aiming to get would not be looking at it as a bet at poor odds, they would be looking at it as a safe, short term investment with a very high yield. Edited September 16, 2014 by Ross. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Aye she did actually.. thought I was in as I sounded quite sexy too ... Got a feeling she'll phone back later for a chat I hope you told her you had a pole that she'd enjoy taking...... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I hope you told her you had a pole that she'd enjoy taking...... No, but I'll use that line if you don't mind Survation poll is for the Daily Mail and will be released tonight at 10.30pm 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamaldo Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 No, but I'll use that line if you don't mind Survation poll is for the Daily Mail and will be released tonight at 10.30pm Well a definite No lead in that one then. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Moonster Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Cheers! If your mere speculation is true, I may have to change my pants. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 So, if there is a No vote, you will be completely wrong? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WullieBroonIsGod Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 User Actions Following McBookie@McBookie Cards on the table. As a Scottish company we will lose a fortune if there is a Yes vote- mainly because everyone keeps backing Yes!!! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 The people they were aiming to get would not be looking at it as a bet at poor odds, they would be looking at it as a safe, short term investment with a very high yield. Well, yeah. I've said all along it's a good return on investment. But still stupid. Anyone who bet No at 1/6 or 1/7 as several high rollers did should have waited. The odds on No were always going to contract nearer the event. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Well a definite No lead in that one then. Think you can guarantee that as it will be announced by ultra Unionist Daily Mail journo Alan Roden 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 So, if there is a No vote, you will be completely wrong? If there is a No vote I'll wish I had dismissed what I was told as I had done originally. I was told this about 9 months ago and reminded of it around a fortnight ago. With other data being made available in the time in between, I think it has far more behind it than it did when I was told the first time. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigMartyn86 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I wouldn't read too much into betfair paying out on a No vote. A nice publicity stunt from them on behalf of the No campaign. Considering their co owner is the grandson of a ex Tory MP it was probably the least he could do. (Apologies if some on had already mentioned this. I can't be fucked checking) http://www.bettinggods.com/andrew-black-betfair-co-founder/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyderspaceman Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Ha! I've sussed the reason why the big NO vote has disappeared recently. When the early polls were done, this happened:- Southern pollster "And how will you be voting, my good man?" Scottish person "Ah'm no' votin' " With the latest polls, all the would-be non-voters are properly identified and voila, a decline in the NO vote. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SodjesSixteenIncher Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I absolutely guarantee that I would say the same if the situation was reversed but it's quite obviously a publicity stunt ffs. It would cost about 40k to get a decent bit of space of advertising in The Telegraph chip wrapper edition. Dropping 100k to get a companies name all over the news, social media etc during a hugely press intensive story is a great bit of business. Why would it be "Interesting" Lex? Betfair know something do they? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shuggie_Murray7 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 88% OF SCOTTISH ONLINE BETS ARE FOR 'YES' WILLIAM HILL have revealed that 88% of all bets they have taken online from clients with Scottish addresses have been for YES; compared with 70% from clients throughout England,Scotland, Wales and N Ireland. DUNDEE has been installed as odds-on favourite to be the region producing the highest percentage of Yes votes in the Scottish Referendum. Hills make Dundee their 8/15 favourite, with Clackmannanshire 5/1 second favourite, ahead of 8/1 Glasgow and Na h-Eileranan Slair; 12/1 Angus; 16/1 Moray. The 100/1 outsiders are Dumfries And Galloway; E. Dunbartonshire; Scottish Borders and South Ayrshire. Meanwhile, Britain’s biggest bookmakers, who have now taken over £2million in bets on the outcome of the Referendum, and who predict an idsutry-wide turnover of some £10m, make NO their 1/ 4 favourite, with YES offered at 11/4. ‘NO has been odds-on favourite throughout the campaign, but with YES reportedly closing up, according to various opinion polls, we would expect to see late backing for that option’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe, adding ‘We will continue to take bets for as long as possible on polling day.’ Hills say they currently face a five figure loss should the result be NO, but will make a six figure profit should it be YES. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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