H_B Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 You Gov are playing games with the future of this country.. Proper verge of tears stuff from Kelly........ Don't seem yo remember the same outrage when the SNP bought a Panelbase poll last year... Presumably that wasn't playing games... It's great to see his blog becoming increasingly bitter... Can feel the seethe 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Well within margin of error for the last yougov poll. Simply confirms what I said a few pages back: there are two distinct polling camps. One clustered around a swing of 2-4.5 points, the other around 7 to 10 points. They can't both be right. The first group weights by recalled 2011 vote, the second either has a recalled 2011 with variations and tweaks, or doesn't weight by recalled vote at all. SOMEONE has the wrong methodology. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/ Interesting methodology in use by the imperial forces at YouGov...... Toys well and truly out the pram in that blog Surely if this was part of some wide ranging conspiracy - which some people seem to genuinely believe - they'd massage the figures closer to prevent unionist complacency? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Toys well and truly out the pram in that blog Surely if this was part of some wide ranging conspiracy - which some people seem to genuinely believe - they'd massage the figures closer to prevent unionist complacency? Well no, in so much as you can make opinion polls lead, rather than reflect public opinion, it's by presenting one outcome as being wildy more popular than the other. That way, any waverers may be more likely to simply side with the majority (after all, everyone can't be wrong) while marginalising the other side in people's heads. Still, I don't think this is happening here. On the one hand it assumes a level of malice that I'm not willing to subscribe to this pollster (even with historical tory ties) while at the same time, I don't think the polls are useful for that kind of work anyway. Tipping opinion is more likely to happen in conversations at work, or in the pub - it's a question of critical mass. In any group of ten, 7 Nos 1 Yes and 2 undecideds, then the 2 undecideds are more likely to end up siding with no through the sheer weight of opinion on that side, in any group where it is 4/4/2? And I think there are probably enough Yes votes out there now that the argument does get a fair hearing. YouGov are interesting though, quite apart from the two SNP group weighting, they show the highest number of SNP voters voting No and the lowest number of Labour voters boting Yes. Clearly there is cause to assume these guys are outliers. That doesn't mean they are wrong, they will have their reasons for these weightings, but against two other internet pollsters (and one phone pollster) showing much closer races? They might be right, but at the moment ther eis no reason to assume they have got something more right than the others. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Toys well and truly out the pram in that blog Surely if this was part of some wide ranging conspiracy - which some people seem to genuinely believe - they'd massage the figures closer to prevent unionist complacency? Thing is, he makes some decent points on the YouGov poll, and the "my baby is crying" chat is hideous from the Twatter. But you can't take such a one-sided blog seriously, when he refuses to adopt the same rigour to the Yes-favouring polls. Completely ruins any credibility. Basically just a smarter version of Colkitto. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Thing is, he makes some decent points on the YouGov poll, and the "my baby is crying" chat is hideous from the Twatter. But you can't take such a one-sided blog seriously, when he refuses to adopt the same rigour to the Yes-favouring polls. Completely ruins any credibility. Basically just a smarter version of Colkitto. In what way does he apply diffrent standards to Yes-favouring polls? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tryfield Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Ladbrokes now going 4/1 YES. I knew I jumped in too quick. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Ladbrokes now going 4/1 YES. I knew I jumped in too quick. indyrefbets.jpg You seem to worry about price fluctuations an awful lot considering you must have placed your bet a long while ago. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Ladbrokes now going 4/1 YES. I knew I jumped in too quick. indyrefbets.jpg Hang about and I'm sure it'll drift to 5/1 shortly. You never know, by the time Ray Winstone urges you to "have a bang on that", it may be out to 11 or 12/1. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tryfield Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 You seem to worry about price fluctuations an awful lot considering you must have placed your bet a long while ago. Bet was struck on my birthday last year. Be raging if odds don't come in less than 3/1. Every point above 3/1 is a ton less for me. Boo. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Ladbrokes now going 4/1 YES. I knew I jumped in too quick. indyrefbets.jpg So presumably 1/7 No. Probably getting closer to the true odds. Could still be value at that price to be honest.... you could easily go 1/12 or 1/14 on No. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Bet was struck on my birthday last year. Be raging if odds don't come in less than 3/1. Every point above 3/1 is a ton less for me. Boo. And you've been telling us all about it ever since, I'll happily empty my bank if we vote YES, I won't be Scottish if we don't. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 And you've been telling us all about it ever since, I'll happily empty my bank if we vote YES, I won't be Scottish if we don't. Tryfield has previously admitted to voting for the Tories, which tells you all you need to know about his mindset. He's part of the reason for South Ayrshire being awash with political embarrassment. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tryfield Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Tryfield has previously admitted to voting for the Tories, which tells you all you need to know about his mindset. He's part of the reason for South Ayrshire being awash with political embarrassment. Tryfield has a total disregard for all politicians. They all lie, most fiddle cash and some are just pure and simply criminals. That's at all levels. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Tryfield has a total disregard for all politicians. They all lie, most fiddle cash and some are just pure and simply criminals. That's at all levels. I agree on the last part. IDS, for example, should be tried in The Hague for human rights crimes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Tryfield has previously admitted to voting for the Tories, which tells you all you need to know about his mindset. He's part of the reason for South Ayrshire being awash with political embarrassment. You're posting to the wrong person, I'd vote Tory over New Labour every time, one side tell you how they are and the other goes against everything it purports to stand for once it gets into power. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 11/10 on a sub-70% turnout looks appealing to me 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 You're posting to the wrong person, I'd vote Tory over New Labour every time, one side tell you how they are and the other goes against everything it purports to stand for once it gets into power. Let's face it, it won't be the first time I've posted incorrectly on here. Whilst I would never vote for the Tories and would rather bathe in sulphuric acid than put a tick in a Tory box, I completely agree about New Labour, who are an utter disgrace of a party. So, in short, I would never vote New Labour or Tory and neither should you. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Let's face it, it won't be the first time I've posted incorrectly on here. Whilst I would never vote for the Tories and would rather bathe in sulphuric acid than put a tick in a Tory box, I completely agree about New Labour, who are an utter disgrace of a party. So, in short, I would never vote New Labour or Tory and neither should you. So you wouldn't want to vote for a party far to the left of the SNP economically? Bit of a Thatcherite are we? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 11/10 on a sub-70% turnout looks appealing to me I'd rather take 5/6 on 75% or less if I was that way inclined. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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