Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[1320Lichtie]

I think at the VERY LEAST, he needs to attend some sort of anger management therapy.

I think he just needs a ride

[AUFC90]

I think at the VERY LEAST, he needs to attend some sort of anger management therapy.

I wonder where his need to be right, superiority complex and the addiction to ridiculing others comes from?

He was most likely bullied at school and is probably a failure in his work life as well. That's why he likes looking down on peoples professions. Pretty sad really. Edited July 11, 2014 by AUFC90

[Ad Lib]

You know, there was a time when people believed you were a Yes voter.

Being a Yes supporter doesn't mean pretending that the rules about margin for error in polling are simply to be disregarded when making factual claims.

[Confidemus]

Being a Yes supporter means you are allowed to OCCASIONALLY support your own side and are allowed to OCCASIONALLY criticise the other side, regardless of how each are represented on P&B

FTFY, flower.

[Ad Lib]

FTFY, flower.

Being correct about the polling is supporting my own side. It upholds our integrity as tellers of the truth.

[AUFC90]

Being correct about the polling is supporting my own side. It upholds our integrity as tellers of the truth.

Truth and integrity are the last words that most would associate with you. Boring fud no voter sounds about right.

[Confidemus]

Being correct about the polling is supporting my own side. It upholds our integrity as tellers of the truth.

Since you have, of late, spent a good deal of your time on here bizarrely white knighting for H_B, I'd be careful throwing around claims of integrity.

Surely even you can see what a bitter, bitter mess he's become?

[Baxter Parp]

Being correct about the polling is supporting my own side. It upholds our integrity as tellers of the truth.

You are a ginormous horse's cock.

[SodjesSixteenIncher]

Surely the don't knows who are breaking at this stage could still break the other way again (both from no to yes and vice versa). If you've not formed an opinion until 10 weeks to go, on an issue that's been top story for fucking ages, it's fair to say you're not the most engaged or commited voter.

If either campaign performs particularly strongly (or badly) in the remaining weeks, there seems to a shitload of people that could be won over. I think that campaign could be the Yes side but my concern is the polling strength of the staunch unionists. Yes could have a strong final few months but they'd have to win an incredible percentage of the soft voters, and I can't see that happening.

[SodjesSixteenIncher]

I think it's fair to say that most voters have lives which don't revolve around this one issue.

They have bills to pay, families to feed and jobs to keep.

The overwhelming majority have not been canvassed by any polling company either.

So few people have been canvassed in fact that it's almost statistically irrelevant.

1000 people from 4000000 voters is just 0.025% of the electorate.

6 pollsters at perhaps 10 polls each? Assuming they all canvass different people we're still only talking about 60,000 voters which is still only 1.5% of the population who've had their say.

That is pretty close to insignificant. When you then consider the polls are 45% to 47% for Yes then it's as close to neck and neck statistically as you'll get without invoking AdLib levels of irrelevant pedantry.

Either way, people will either make their minds up in the week of the vote or somewhere around there.

In the meantime we are still over 2 months away.

Most folk are simply focussing on other things right now.

This is a bit of a simple way of looking at things. Survation producing two results rounded up/down to the same numbers shows us you can't dismiss opinion polling because the numbers are too small. If we had results of 80% Yes, 10% Yes, 35% Yes from poll to poll, then yeah, you could say it just depends on who you talk to. As polling goes, this question produces very inconsistent numbers from company to company and yet still, the results paint a picture.

Anyone finally getting round to have a think about this on the week of the referendum is blatantly an ignorant simpleton and ideally wouldn't be allowed to vote on anything.

[~~~]

If the No vote comes in at less than 60% regardless that they won it's still a damming reflection on the union and it's clear things politically can't stay the same.

I also think the scottish branch of Labour are fucked, they've came out of this campaign looking badly imo

[Confidemus]

I also think the scottish branch of Labour are fucked, they've came out of this campaign looking badly imo

This. Although the Tories are abhorrent, you know what you're getting with them.

Labour have abandoned their principles and abandoned many people who used to vote for them. I'll certainly never vote for the current Scottish Labour set up again.

[craigkillie]

So few people have been canvassed in fact that it's almost statistically irrelevant.

1000 people from 4000000 voters is just 0.025% of the electorate.

6 pollsters at perhaps 10 polls each? Assuming they all canvass different people we're still only talking about 60,000 voters which is still only 1.5% of the population who've had their say.

That is pretty close to insignificant.

This is an amazingly ignorant outlook - do you not think that perhaps the qualified statisticians who work for these polling companies will have considered this issue and selected their sample sizes accordingly? Do you think you have a better idea of what is and isn't statistically significant than people who will have degrees in the subject? Do you think they haven't accounted for the associated uncertainty?

There are a number of valid criticisms of these polls (or any political polls), particularly in terms of whether the people being polled are entirely representative of the whole population. The choice of sample sizes is not really one of them.

Edited July 11, 2014 by craigkillie

[Jamaldo]

If the No vote comes in at less than 60% regardless that they won it's still a damming reflection on the union and it's clear things politically can't stay the same.

I also think the scottish branch of Labour are fucked, they've came out of this campaign looking badly imo

Extremely wishful thinking. If anyone genuinely thinks that a reasonably narrow victory for No will see some sort of wake-up call followed by a root and branch review of British politics from the powers that be then I'm afraid their mistaken.

The UK government will take a No vote as a vote from the Scottish people that they are happy with the way things are and will carry on as normal. Why would they have to do any differently?

[Confidemus]

The UK government will take a No vote as a vote from the Scottish people that they are happy with the way things are and will carry on as normal. Why would they have to do any differently?

I think Westminster will go further. Voting No will give them a mandate to do what the f**k they want with Scotland, because no matter how bad things get, the jocks don't want to leave.

And that, chums, sickens me.

[Lex]

If the No vote comes in at less than 60% regardless that they won it's still a damming reflection on the union and it's clear things politically can't stay the same.

I also think the scottish branch of Labour are fucked, they've came out of this campaign looking badly imo

If the union wins by less than 10 percent, what do you think will happen?

[Confidemus]

If the union wins by less than 10 percent, what do you think will happen?

Depends how many horses are involved.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Wrong. It's anywhere between neck and neck and a 6 point gap (assuming 3% margin of error). Besides which the Yes/No split is a derivative sub-sample because it excludes Don't Knows. The industry standard 3% uncertainty applies to the whole sample, not the subset. Including Don't Knows, the gap is 5%, which as you are well aware is beyond the margin of error.

+/- 3% would make it anywhere between neck & neck and 12%

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Surely the don't knows who are breaking at this stage could still break the other way again (both from no to yes and vice versa). If you've not formed an opinion until 10 weeks to go, on an issue that's been top story for fucking ages, it's fair to say you're not the most engaged or commited voter.

If either campaign performs particularly strongly (or badly) in the remaining weeks, there seems to a shitload of people that could be won over. I think that campaign could be the Yes side but my concern is the polling strength of the staunch unionists. Yes could have a strong final few months but they'd have to win an incredible percentage of the soft voters, and I can't see that happening.

My undestanding of the different polls have seen is that DKs are breaking more to No - that might change but I doubt it. I still stand by my 57-43 margin prediction.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I think Westminster will go further. Voting No will give them a mandate to do what the f**k they want with Scotland, because no matter how bad things get, the jocks don't want to leave.

And that, chums, sickens me.

The real Project Fear.