Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[Confidemus]

Look at the way the tide has turned in the last three weeks. Surge to No and the BT campaign is completely unable to stop it - how many people revert to No?

I'm not just saying this, but I have read and heard of many, many examples of soft No's and DK's moving to Yes but not one person moving from Yes to No.

[pandarilla]

TNS tend to get a lot of fence sitters so if Yes are indeed at 50% excluding DKs it'll be interesting to see how many DKs are left.

ICM must be due this week and probably Survation too. Those show a Yes lead and I'm afraid I'll be throwing in the towel - No won't win.

Is it just me or does this sentence not make sense? Its been a very long day at work so it could well just be me.

[Mr Heliums]

Yes I'm worried. When so much of the media is saying how bad it will be, it will certainly affect some waverers – certainly enough to make a difference in the outcome

[Guest]

Its the equivalent of playing against the Old Firm and scoring too early.

I'm always worried.

Exactly.

Even when it's a shite old firm team who aren't even any better than your own team, there's always the chance Danny Handling can get sent off for f**k all when the momentum is with you.

[Confidemus]

Yes I'm worried. When so much of the media is saying how bad it will be, it will certainly affect some waverers – certainly enough to make a difference in the outcome

Fret not. I genuinely don't think enough people will be fooled by this.

And on the plus side, we still have Nigel Farage and the Orange Order to throw a few more switherers our way.

Plus I think the Sun will come out in support of indy.

[Ludo*1]

This is unreal:

[Mr Heliums]

Hopefully tonight's poll will take the headlines from Labour's old new devolution plans

[Mr. Bojangles]

Is it just me or does this sentence not make sense? Its been a very long day at work so it could well just be me.

For example it could be 40 yes, 40 no, 20 DK.

[pandarilla]

For example it could be 40 yes, 40 no, 20 DK.

But he said if yes are at 50 excluding DK's - surely that means that No are also at 50% cos there is no DK's?

[Mr. Bojangles]

Just watching Alexander talking on BBC News. I've never seen such a lot of shite in all my days. Labour believe their proposals will be well accepted by the other parties, and they'll all agree, so there's no need to worry about what we're actually offering. Because it's what people want. We'll tell them what they want, and they'll think it's great.

[jagfox]

This is unreal:

Dear God!

Was there not statistic about that Scottish soldiers were more likely to end up dead or injured compared with their fellow soldiers in the world wars?

[Jamaldo]

I switched to Sky and from watching it for a few seconds it just looked like another Gordon Brown rallying cry to some Labour talking heads.

[Guest]

Nope, I think what has swung it quite a bit is the grass roots work, going to all the towns and villages. Door to Door visits, Doing everything better than BT. It helps that splinter groups like Tommy Sheridan etc are also getting the message out to crowded town halls and community centres and the performance of the Yes Scotland leaders. I think all the fear and condescension given out by the media and BT has spectacularly backfired

Yes, people are sick of the Scottish media scaremongering. However, when the familiar faces from the British media start telling us what a shame it'll be, a lot of people with a nice warm fuzzy feeling might start feeling all cold and sad about it.

I say this because there are plenty of people out there whose political compass follows irrational feelings rather than informed decision making.

[pandarilla]

This is unreal:

That poster is positively dripping with emotional blackmail. Christ on a bike.

That is desperate.

[Confidemus]

This is unreal:

That is disgusting. There really is no low they won't stoop to.

They really have lost any last semblance of morals in a bid to save the rotten union.

[Mr. Bojangles]

But he said if yes are at 50 excluding DK's - surely that means that No are also at 50% cos there is no DK's?

Excluding don't knows just means you subtract them from the poll because you can't be sure which way they'll go. It's pretty standard, and was the basis of the Yougov poll from Sunday.

He was wondering how many had decided on each side (unless I've completely missed his point).

[pandarilla]

Excluding don't knows just means you subtract them from the poll because you can't be sure which way they'll go. It's pretty standard, and was the basis of the Yougov poll from Sunday.

He was wondering how many had decided on each side (unless I've completely missed his point).

Do they subtract them or do they divide them equally between both sides? I thought it was the latter.

[Mr. Bojangles]

I was about to say that I didn't believe the poster is real, but then I remembered them equating Yes voters with terrorism/terrorist sympathisers.

[Sherrif John Bunnell]

I imagine the "But, what about the troops??!!" rhetoric will be ramped up to 11 over the next few days.

[Mr. Bojangles]

Do they subtract them or do they divide them equally between both sides? I thought it was the latter.

I can't remember. I had a discussion about this a long while ago. It makes little difference in a binary question which way you go (0.5% swing in the most outlandish political poll circumstances).