Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[forza ton]

Most pleasing. I've noticed a few more 'blood on the streets' type comments from the no camp in the last few days. They're getting rattled. Basically if we vote for independence some factions will not accept democracy and say they will resort to violence. No doubt a few groups of loyalists may shout a wee bit louder at ibrox but that'll be it.

[Tubbs]

Most pleasing. I've noticed a few more 'blood on the streets' type comments from the no camp in the last few days. They're getting rattled. Basically if we vote for independence some factions will not accept democracy and say they will resort to violence. No doubt a few groups of loyalists may shout a wee bit louder at ibrox but that'll be it.

Whilst you make a one sided comment; you are right that the democratic result will not be accepted by some/many on both sides.

The question of margin has never really been covered. ie if one side wins by the smallest of margins what happens? For me it is that scenario that is most likely to lead to issues.

[capybara]

The Yes vote has always been lower than I think it actually was. But this is a big leap. Although I understand it is voters under 44. What is interesting is that don't knows may be minded to vote yes. Another reason that the No camp needs to spell out what powers if any would head Holyrood,s way. At the moment Darling and co say we need to wait for party manifestos. By then it is too late.

[PaulIsclosed]

There is definitely a lot to use and abuse for both sides of the debate there, as Wee Bully points out the much trumpeted all time low 23% figure is now at 29%, so a six point jump there. The No side will trumpet the absolute unsailability of that headline figure. It's a bit of a contradiciton, but while that 23-29% figure exists, so does one question that reckons that all decisions should be made by the Scottish parliament has dropped by 4% since last year, which doesn't seem self consistent.

My two big complaints with Curtice are as always about timing. You simply can't treat a poll of 1,500 folk over six months as one sample. I'm not the expert here, Curtice is - but in my job I work with statistics a fair bit in terms of designing semiconductor devices for quality and reliability. I know that if I tried to look at lifetime testing of parts in six subsamples over a period of six months, and then presented the data as one sample with the end points normalised to the last batch, I'd be laughed out of the building. Curtice's methodology does not allow for folk changing their minds during his sample period, he has no way of knowing that the folk he asked in June, still hold the same opinion in October. It also means that each sub-sample taken on it's own, if it can be broken down that way, would be very small and prone to large errors.

Secondly, the press are reporting this as being 'new' i.e. current - when in fact the last samples of data were picked up in Ocotber 2013: Three months ago. Coincidentally, one month before the publishing of the white paper. Whatever it's actual impact, there is no doubt that there is now a lot more information available from both sides, and a lot of ink spilled since Curtice finished his data collection, which surely pours some doubt on the questions he asked regading how informed voters felt.

A sample is simply a subset of the population being sampled from therefore as long as it was randomized, the results are valid. I presume you're an engineer and not a mathematician?

[ayrmad]

The Yes vote has always been lower than I think it actually was. But this is a big leap. Although I understand it is voters under 44. What is interesting is that don't knows may be minded to vote yes. Another reason that the No camp needs to spell out what powers if any would head Holyrood,s way. At the moment Darling and co say we need to wait for party manifestos. By then it is too late.

I thought Cameron had played a blinder to remove more powers from the referendum?

I want all the powers, those that are educating themselves realise they've been fed a line and been shafted for years, the gentlemans not for turning.

[H_B]

Basically if we vote for independence some factions will not accept democracy and say they will resort to violence.

The only people I've seen act with rage and threats of violence following the result are Yes voters on here.

[SodjesSixteenIncher]

Anyone watching Sunday Politics?

Douglas Alexander asked about 5 times if Scotland will get Devo-Max. Just slavered about 'the nationalists' each time Scotland really is full of thick c***s if they're duped into thinking they'll get anything out of voting No.

[renton]

A sample is simply a subset of the population being sampled from therefore as long as it was randomized, the results are valid. I presume you're an engineer and not a mathematician?

The sample here has a clear dependency on time. In this case Curtice's sample period is so long that he can't but help end up aliasing his own data (that's an engineering term by the way).

[forza ton]

The only people I've seen act with rage and threats of violence following the result are Yes voters on here.

Really?? Open your eyes a wee bit then. I'm all over this stuff online and the blood in the streets patter is 99% from bitters.

[H_B]

Really?? Open your eyes a wee bit then. I'm all over this stuff online .

Oh, I'm sure you are.

[PaulIsclosed]

The sample here has a clear dependency on time. In this case Curtice's sample period is so long that he can't but help end up aliasing his own data (that's an engineering term by the way).

The data is not a time series so there is no dependency on time, therefore only the conclusions are constrained by that time period and nothing more.

[ayrmad]

I think todays poll consigns the other 1 to that corner of the library referenced as history.

[renton]

The data is not a time series so there is no dependency on time, therefore only the conclusions are constrained by that time period and nothing more.

There is a dependency on time, all polling relies on a consistency of opinion from the start to finish of the sampling period, 1-2 week fieldwork is common and has a reasonably small risk, but 3 months? Huge risk of people asked in June not holding the same opinion in October, and therefore a larger risk of his data not being a true reflection of the state of play, I understand his methodology is consistent over the years and works fine with social issues, but as soon as this became a live campaign, then the amount of information being put into the public domain for me means that his sample period is too long - Ipsos Mori showed a 5% swing away from No to Undecided in a quarter, Curtice's methodology would have missed that, or at least seen an innacurate image of it.

[H_B]

I think todays poll consigns the other 1 to that corner of the library referenced as history.

What other one?

[forza ton]

Oh, I'm sure you are.

[ayrmad]

What other one?

The 1 you and Renton are squabbling over, sampled b4 November last year, old news, sampled this week, worth talking about.

I was also interested in the BBC concentrating on the youngsters in the ICM poll so they could continually use the "it's a small sample size" line repeatedly, just for those that only heard that part, the ICM smple size was comparable to all the rest that weren't moving for months, I think MOMENTUM has joined the debate.

[renton]

The 1 you and Renton are squabbling over, sampled b4 November last year, old news, sampled this week, worth talking about.

I was also interested in the BBC concentrating on the youngsters in the ICM poll so they could continually use the "it's a small sample size" line repeatedly, just for those that only heard that part, the ICM smple size was comparable to all the rest that weren't moving for months, I think MOMENTUM has joined the debate.

Eh, we aren't?

[PaulIsclosed]

There is a dependency on time, all polling relies on a consistency of opinion from the start to finish of the sampling period, 1-2 week fieldwork is common and has a reasonably small risk, but 3 months? Huge risk of people asked in June not holding the same opinion in October, and therefore a larger risk of his data not being a true reflection of the state of play, I understand his methodology is consistent over the years and works fine with social issues, but as soon as this became a live campaign, then the amount of information being put into the public domain for me means that his sample period is too long - Ipsos Mori showed a 5% swing away from No to Undecided in a quarter, Curtice's methodology would have missed that, or at least seen an innacurate image of it.

There is no dependency on time, it's not a time series. You're missing the point, the sample reflects the position of the population over the period of time that sampling occurred, nothing more. So long as the sampling was randomized then it is not invalidated by the time frame, as it's not purporting to draw conclusions about the position of the population out with the interval of time that sampling took place. If it tried to draw conclusions about the position of the population on any other time interval other than the time interval that sampling took place, then it's conclusions would be invalid.

[renton]

There is no dependency on time, it's not a time series. You're missing the point, the sample reflects the position of the population over the period of time that sampling occurred, nothing more. So long as the sampling was randomized then it is not invalidated by the time frame, as it's not purporting to draw conclusions about the position of the population out with the interval of time that sampling took place. If it tried to draw conclusions about the position of the population on any other time interval other than the time interval that sampling took place, then it's conclusions would be invalid.

That's kinda the point, the sampling interval is long, and can lead to aliasing of information, therefore the position of the population over that period of time could be innacurate. Other polling shows variances within the sample period chosen by Curtice, if the interval is too long, then these variances are missed.

[Burma]

The only people I've seen act with rage and threats of violence following the result are Yes voters on here.

Evidence please.

And be very very very specific.