Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[RuMoore]

Just now, Zern said:

It's not the prediction i'm objecting too. It's the tired trope that voters who switched from Labour to SNP, over a decade ago, will see the error of their ways and return to the 'home' of Labour. You think Labour are entitled to those votes.

It's bullshit denialism of why the Labour Party lost their majority in Scotland in the first place and ignores the changes to the voting rolls and political landscape since.

Lmao, no i don't. 

If anything it seems like you think SNP are entitled to these votes, how dare I suggest some centre type voters would choose to vote for another centre type political party..   

It would probably help if you dealt with what has been said rather than what you think people mean, which you seem to struggle with quite regularly on here. 

[Gringo]

In Scotland I can see Labour doingquite well as the SNP are just sooooo bad. They appear to be falling to pieces with disastrous policies along with the Greens as every day seems to see more MPs / MSPs leaving. In addition I think lots of Tory Scottish voters will vote tactically for Labour as Labour are considered safer for the Union.

In England I actually can see the Tories coming back quite strongly as Labour are becoming loonier and loonier and, with the economy improving, there could be space for tax cuts before the election.

 

Edited June 7, 2023 by Gringo
Spelling

[Mr Waldo]

Well, I know more than one person who voted SNP last time and will vote Labour in this by-election simply because if SNP win, the current Scottish Goverment will think that are currently on the right track. A loss, and they might ask themselves why. 

[Zern]

I wanna meet the SNP voter who prefers Starmer to Corbyn, probably a total headcase.

Closer Tory alignment is Labour's current trajectory. I doubt that will prove popular. Attracting tories is about all they are good for now.

 

As the poster above avers, they are a safe pair of hands

[Wee-Bey]

Ultimately all that matters is who wins the most votes in the constituency. Labour will not give a single solitary f**k if their votes come from tories, or pro Starmer/Pro Corbyn or from soft SNP voters 'returning home'. That's for your John Curtices and Lord Ashcrofts to pick over.

 The SNP are almost certain to have some sort of electoral decline from the unprecedented highs of the last decade. How much and what shape it will take is unknown.

[Zern]

Ironically the seat would be a shoo-in if the unionist parties could get out of each other's way and present a unified front.

[Gringo]

59 minutes ago, Zern said:

Ironically the seat would be a shoo-in if the unionist parties could get out of each other's way and present a unified front.

Surely that’s exactly what we want to get away from?

We don’t want to be like NI and just vote on constitutional/religious lines.

[Guest]

I'd love there to be a progressive alliance where SNP didn't run a candidate against Monica Lennon and Labour didn't run against Mhairi Black. Such a strategy would have the effect of shifting both parties leftwards and with it the national political landscape

Instead all we get in Scotland is these absurd calls for Labour voters to "tactically" vote Tory and vice-versa. For me, folk's preference for either British or Scottish nationalism shouldn't override underlying principles.

[Gringo]

12 minutes ago, FreedomFarter said:

I'd love there to be a progressive alliance where SNP didn't run a candidate against Monica Lennon and Labour didn't run against Mhairi Black. Such a strategy would have the effect of shifting both parties leftwards and with it the national political landscape

Instead all we get in Scotland is these absurd calls for Labour voters to "tactically" vote Tory and vice-versa. For me, folk's preference for either British or Scottish nationalism shouldn't override underlying principles.

Watched PMQs today, first time for a while, and thought Mhairi Black was totally hopeless up against the mediocre Dowden. Never laid a glove on him.

[ICTChris]

Best For Britain carried out a poll that predicts 31 seats for Labour in Scotland.

https://www.bestforbritain.org/mrp_polling_new_boundaries_june_2023

I don't know anything about this group or their poll methodology.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

Best For Britain carried out a poll that predicts 31 seats for Labour in Scotland.

https://www.bestforbritain.org/mrp_polling_new_boundaries_june_2023

I don't know anything about this group or their poll methodology.

Was this not based off a sub-sample?

[StellarHibee]

1 hour ago, FreedomFarter said:

I'd love there to be a progressive alliance where SNP didn't run a candidate against Monica Lennon and Labour didn't run against Mhairi Black. Such a strategy would have the effect of shifting both parties leftwards and with it the national political landscape.

Labour doing anything that would move them leftwards under Starmer? That's hilarious mate.

[Granny Danger]

2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Best For Britain carried out a poll that predicts 31 seats for Labour in Scotland.

https://www.bestforbritain.org/mrp_polling_new_boundaries_june_2023

I don't know anything about this group or their poll methodology.

I hope the bookies are offering decent odds for this outcome.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, StellarHibee said:

Labour doing anything that would move them leftwards under Starmer? That's hilarious mate.

Voters could affect this, though, by eg. voting for Monica Lennon* in her constituency but against Ian Murray in his. Unite actually campaigned to have Murray replaced in 2019 but local unions didn't agree. It's likely commitment to British nationalism trumped commitment to socialism for those local unions. They knew Murray could get right wing votes from natural Tory or Lib Dem voters in that constituency and they'd rather have a less progressive BritNat than a more progressive ScotNat. I think that's a shite stance.

*I know she's an MSP not an MP like Murray, just using her as a hypothetical.

[StellarHibee]

8 minutes ago, FreedomFarter said:

Voters could affect this, though, by eg. voting for Monica Lennon* in her constituency but against Ian Murray in his. Unite actually campaigned to have Murray replaced in 2019 but local unions didn't agree. It's likely commitment to British nationalism trumped commitment to socialism for those local unions. They knew Murray could get right wing votes from natural Tory or Lib Dem voters in that constituency and they'd rather have a less progressive BritNat than a more progressive ScotNat. I think that's a shite stance.

*I know she's an MSP not an MP like Murray, just using her as a hypothetical.

If Monica Lennon was an MP, she'd soon be deselected and replaced by some Tory "defect", or some c**t who is "hard on immigration".

[RuMoore]

3 hours ago, FreedomFarter said:

I'd love there to be a progressive alliance where SNP didn't run a candidate against Monica Lennon and Labour didn't run against Mhairi Black. Such a strategy would have the effect of shifting both parties leftwards and with it the national political landscape

Instead all we get in Scotland is these absurd calls for Labour voters to "tactically" vote Tory and vice-versa. For me, folk's preference for either British or Scottish nationalism shouldn't override underlying principles.

I agree mostly with this part however we're not talking about people being left or right when it comes to policy when the "left wing" option has leaving the UK as their main policy. Of course Unionist parties will vote tactically to avoid that. There are plenty of left wingers that don't support Indy and there's plenty of people that lend their vote to Labour and SNP without really considering Indy as the main factor. If Indy wasn't on the table I seriously doubt what some deem as "British nationalist" voices would have any prominence in Scottish politics.

In an ideal world whether within the UK or not we would have PR and people's left or right wing views could be better represented rather than all parties trying to hoodwink centrist voters. 

[Guest]

18 minutes ago, RuMoore said:

I agree mostly with this part however we're not talking about people being left or right when it comes to policy when the "left wing" option has leaving the UK as their main policy. Of course Unionist parties will vote tactically to avoid that.

Sure but doing that is putting national identity above material interest which is a liberal not socialist stance (the reverse is equally true regards Scottish national identity).

 

19 minutes ago, RuMoore said:

There are plenty of left wingers that don't support Indy and there's plenty of people that lend their vote to Labour and SNP without really considering Indy as the main factor. If Indy wasn't on the table I seriously doubt what some deem as "British nationalist" voices would have any prominence in Scottish politics.

I was using British nationalist as the alternative to Scottish nationalist then secessionist as the antonym to unionist. Just a semantic thing as its a more consistent categorisation. 

 

34 minutes ago, RuMoore said:

In an ideal world whether within the UK or not we would have PR and people's left or right wing views could be better represented rather than all parties trying to hoodwink centrist voters. 

Very much. UK has been moving since the 1990s closer in the direction of the US situation. There you have a corporate duopoly which entirely align on economics and only disagree on social issues. UK is still a good bit away from that but the direction of travel is towards it. The other major European nation stuck on this conveyor belt, France, also has the FPTP system in common with UK. It creates a huge democratic deficit and leads to increasing consolidation of power for the ownership class over time. Incidentally, Corbyn opposed PR because it allows the far right an immediate seat at the table. That's true but does he think the US Republican party and Le Pen in France are not far right? UK Tory party is heading that way too. PR is better.

[moses1924]

6 hours ago, Gringo said:

We don’t want to be like NI and just vote on constitutional/religious lines

We already are like that. Almost everyone who wants independence votes SNP regardless of their other policies; almost everyone who opposes independence would never vote SNP, even if they agreed with most of the SNP policies.

[ICTChris]

Details of the recall petition for Margaret Ferrier.

https://www.southlanarkshire.gov.uk/info/200236/politicians/2157/statutory_notices
 

Any P&Bers in Rutherhlen and Hamilton West going to sign?

I see that Wings was up in arms about The National pushing this because he thinks that a Unionist is a shoe in to get elected if there is a by election.  I’m sure I also saw Neale Hanvey, one of the two Alba MPs, speak against it, he may have voted against it as well. Interesting and perhaps suggests that Alba might not stand in the seat and potentially drain SNP votes.

[GAD]

26 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Details of the recall petition for Margaret Ferrier.

https://www.southlanarkshire.gov.uk/info/200236/politicians/2157/statutory_notices
 

Any P&Bers in Rutherhlen and Hamilton West going to sign?

I see that Wings was up in arms about The National pushing this because he thinks that a Unionist is a shoe in to get elected if there is a by election.  I’m sure I also saw Neale Hanvey, one of the two Alba MPs, speak against it, he may have voted against it as well. Interesting and perhaps suggests that Alba might not stand in the seat and potentially drain SNP votes.

I'm in the constituency. It might not be the Labour banker they seem to think it is. Labour are in charge of the council and are basically in coalition with the Tories. Also this guy has been brought in by HQ at the expense of other local candidates who were excluded from the process. He's also a proper red Tory Starmer yes man, who quit the party under Corbyn. The last Labour guy that won here campaigned hard on local issues, but that won't really be an option for this guy. I reckon it'll be closer than people think.