H_B Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Why are you talking about trends of small increments and fiddling figures for appearances sake? It's about managing the defeat. That's what the Yes campaign have been doing from the start. Everyone knows what the final result is going to be, so all that's left to decide is the margin, which is still important. A defeat by 3% points and 13% will lead to two radically different post-referendum landscapes for the SNP/Yes. Which is why for the non-Clown Collective types (who are a lost cause) it's about cutting the margin of defeat to something respectable. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 (edited) Look - you've had almost the perfect political storm in the run-up to this referendum. 1) Years of stable and successful SNP administrations in Holyrood 2) Tories utterly nowhere in Scotland. 3) Labour an absolute clusterfuck of epic proportions 4) LibDems inextricably associated with ... 5) A despised Tory government in London bringing in massive public spending cuts. 6) A very professional, slick, well-funded and sustained Yes Campaign that's been running hard for a year and... 7) A No Campaign that's been inept, feeble and insulting to even the most basic intelligence. Add in to all this the trend for small nations being created all over Europe with the breakup of the Soviet Bloc, continued oil flowing ashore, potential new revenue streams in renewables... The big question is - why the hell isn't the Yes Campaign out of sight by 15-20 points? Why are you talking about trends of small increments and fiddling figures for appearances sake? You've (and by "you've", i mean the No camp) also had outright media bias, which should not be underestimated. Not to mention scaremongering and fear tactics. Also, given your points, 6 or 7.... Why aren't you voting Yes? Edited March 24, 2014 by Confidemus 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Also, given your points, 6 or 7.... Why aren't you voting Yes? Oh dear. As we are continually told this is a fundamental decision to make not restricted to the current political landscape. Just as it isn't about the SNP, it also isn't about either the Yes or No campaigns. Fail. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 You've (and by "you've", i mean the No camp) also had outright media bias, which should not be underestimated. Not to mention scaremongering and fear tactics. Also, given your points, 6 or 7.... Why aren't you voting Yes? Bias is in the eye of the beholder. Ask the green bhigots if they think referees are unbiased. The Yes camp does a nice line in fear and scaremongering too - "They'll strip Holyrood of powers in the event of a No vote", "They'll trample over Scotland with impunity if we don't vote Yes" etc etc ad vomitatum. As for points 6 or 7, I stopped listening to lying b*****d politicians years ago. You'd be wise to do the same, you will eventually anyway. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dipped Flake Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Look - you've had almost the perfect political storm in the run-up to this referendum. 1) Years of stable and successful SNP administrations in Holyrood 2) Tories utterly nowhere in Scotland. 3) Labour an absolute clusterfuck of epic proportions 4) LibDems inextricably associated with ... 5) A despised Tory government in London bringing in massive public spending cuts. 6) A very professional, slick, well-funded and sustained Yes Campaign that's been running hard for a year and... 7) A No Campaign that's been inept, feeble and insulting to even the most basic intelligence. Add in to all this the trend for small nations being created all over Europe with the breakup of the Soviet Bloc, continued oil flowing ashore, potential new revenue streams in renewables... The big question is - why the hell isn't the Yes Campaign out of sight by 15-20 points? Why are you talking about trends of small increments and fiddling figures for appearances sake? so you have been shown to be talking nonsense regarding the polls so you go off on another tangent. Do all the BT posters on here go to classes on how to avoid questions and try and divert any thread that is going against them? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 (edited) Why are you talking about trends of small increments and fiddling figures for appearances sake? It's about managing the defeat. That's what the Yes campaign have been doing from the start. Everyone knows what the final result is going to be, so all that's left to decide is the margin, which is still important. A defeat by 3% points and 13% will lead to two radically different post-referendum landscapes for the SNP/Yes. Which is why for the non-Clown Collective types (who are a lost cause) it's about cutting the margin of defeat to something respectable. A victory by 1 vote for YES will lead to the radical landscape I want to see in Scotland. It's so near I can feel it twitching in every fibre in my body. Edited March 24, 2014 by ayrmad 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 RADICAL! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Ad Lib, what way are you voting again? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 A victory by 1 vote for YES will lead to the radical landscape I want to see in Scotland. What you mean like reducing corporation tax to increase inequality in society? That kind of thing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Ad Lib, what way are you voting again? He's a confirmed YES voter and argues the case for an independent Scotland very passionately. :lol: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Ad Lib, what way are you voting again? For the marginally least shit of the two holocausts of campaigns. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 so you have been shown to be talking nonsense regarding the polls so you go off on another tangent. Do all the BT posters on here go to classes on how to avoid questions and try and divert any thread that is going against them? 1 I'm posting the plain truth about the polls. Excluding the don't knows and acting like they don't exist is just bawbaggery and it's noticeable that this is a tactic the Yes campaign have adopted only recently. 2 I'm talking about polls and factors which should influence voting intentions. That isn't a diversion. 3 I'm not a BT poster and it's a mistake to try and create an "us and them" mentality because we'll all have to live together after the referendum. Act with a bit of decorum now and the inevitable piss-taking won't be so bad. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dipped Flake Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 1 I'm posting the plain truth about the polls. Excluding the don't knows and acting like they don't exist is just bawbaggery and it's noticeable that this is a tactic the Yes campaign have adopted only recently. 2 I'm talking about polls and factors which should influence voting intentions. That isn't a diversion. 3 I'm not a BT poster and it's a mistake to try and create an "us and them" mentality because we'll all have to live together after the referendum. Act with a bit of decorum now and the inevitable piss-taking won't be so bad. oh for God's sake, let me explain 1. The polls show that YEs is catching up on NO. This has been shown by the poll of polls showing the percentage of YES above NO going from over 20% to under 13% therefore the polls show that the YES vote is catching up. That was the only point I tried to get you to agree with but you just chose to ignore the facts. As for your bit about ignoring unknowns, this is standard practice for all polls. Both sides of the campaign use these figures 2. So do you agree that the polls show YES catching up?? 3. So you are saying you are a YES voter????? sorry but I find that hard to believe. i 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 1 I'm posting the plain truth about the polls. Excluding the don't knows and acting like they don't exist is just bawbaggery and it's noticeable that this is a tactic the Yes campaign have adopted only recently. 2 I'm talking about polls and factors which should influence voting intentions. That isn't a diversion. 3 I'm not a BT poster and it's a mistake to try and create an "us and them" mentality because we'll all have to live together after the referendum. Act with a bit of decorum now and the inevitable piss-taking won't be so bad. Even allowing for dks the polls have narrowed, personally I don't hold with excluding DKs becuase the DKs will have to go someway, Curtice on his blog reckoned DKs favoured Yes a bit more but I haven't seen the data that suggests that. Nevertheless, the polls are narrowing - there is no underlying physics that dictate the pace of that narrowing so it could easily speed up, slow down or reverse. The interesting thing about your earlier argument about the static nature of an independence vote over the decades is that it is valid in reverse - regardless of the flavour of government and it's policies the vote was always quite static, now it's not - as people get engaged with the issues the share of the vote is increasing with Survation at 39% PB at 40% and ICM at 39% - that's not 30 odd percent anymore, not by a long shot. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Taking into account margin for error of +/- 3%, it's still at 30-odd per cent. You're all bigging up marginal movements when, as I've pointed out, the Yes campaign should be pulling out the cigars by now. My prediction is the Yes vote will be significantly under 40% on referendum day. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 (edited) Taking into account margin for error of +/- 3%, it's still at 30-odd per cent. You're all bigging up marginal movements when, as I've pointed out, the Yes campaign should be pulling out the cigars by now. My prediction is the Yes vote will be significantly under 40% on referendum day. On a plus or minus 3% it's either 36 or 43%, still not 30 odd percent and not marginal at all, given that the No vote could then be 43 or 49% as well with DKs included, so worst case scenario is a 13 point deficit and best case is a dead heat (based on ICM results) Also, the fact that you think they should be pulling out the cigars does not mean it is a serious analysis backed up by facts. Sociology may not be an exact science but I imagine factors such as 307 years of Union, 50 years of solid habitual Labour voting in the West of Scotland and only a relatively recent 'falling out' with Westminster over the last 30 years in terms of the post war consensus may contirbute to a drag on what it takes to get Indy over the finishing line. Edited March 24, 2014 by renton 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burma Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 For the marginally least shit of the two holocausts of campaigns. So whats shit about the NO campaign? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Taking into account margin for error of +/- 3%, it's still at 30-odd per cent. You're all bigging up marginal movements when, as I've pointed out, the Yes campaign should be pulling out the cigars by now. My prediction is the Yes vote will be significantly under 40% on referendum day. I think Yes will have at least 45%. Anyone who thinks a Yes vote will be under 40% clearly hasn't been paying attention. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamaldo Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Taking into account margin for error of +/- 3%, it's still at 30-odd per cent. You're all bigging up marginal movements when, as I've pointed out, the Yes campaign should be pulling out the cigars by now. My prediction is the Yes vote will be significantly under 40% on referendum day. Utter rubbish. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broccoli Dog Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 So whats shit about the NO campaign? Alasdair Carmichael for a start. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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