I'm sorry but more Opinion Polls- Have they been accurate histori

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What did the opinion polls predict before the referendum in 1999?

Did any of the polls predict the SNP to trounce everyone else in 2011 with 45% of the vote?

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***historically?

[John Lambies Doos]

3 last polls on run up to 90s devolution ref had yes at about 63. Polling day yes 74! As for tax varying powers , yes mid 40s actual Yes early 60s!!! Google it... superb reading

[ForzaDundee]

3 last polls on run up to 90s devolution ref had yes at about 63. Polling day yes 74! As for tax varying powers , yes mid 40s actual Yes early 60s!!! Google it... superb reading

Interesting. This gives hope.

[tamthebam]

ever hear of President Dewey? No...

During the 1948 US Presidential Election Thomas Dewey was favourite to beat Harry S Truman going into the last stages of the campaign:

"The large, mostly spontaneous gatherings at Truman's railcar events were an important sign of a change in momentum in the campaign, but this shift went virtually unnoticed by the national press corps, which continued reporting Republican Thomas Dewey's apparent impending victory as a certainty. One reason for the press' inaccurate projection was that polls were conducted primarily by telephone, in a time when many people, including much of Truman's populist base, did not own a telephone. This skewed the data to indicate a stronger support base for Dewey than existed. It resulted in an unintended and undetected projection error that may have contributed to the perception of Truman's bleak chances. The three major polling organizations stopped polling well before the November 2 election date—Roper in September, and Crossley and Gallup in October—thus failing to measure the period when Truman appears to have surged past Dewey"

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_general_election,_2011

Opinion polls

Further information: Opinion polling in the Scottish Parliament election, 2011

In March 2011, two months before the election, Labour held a double-digit lead over the SNP in the opinion polls,^[22] 44% to 29%.^[23] The SNP's support subsequently rallied, with the two parties level in April polling. In the final poll on the eve of the election, the SNP were eleven points clear of Labour.^[22][24]

So opinion polls said 11% but the SNP had a 15+% lead in the end. If I recall they didnt take into account the collapse of the Lib Dems last time out.

[Casual Bystander]

Whenever titles are cut for being too long I always think of the Rocky Horror scene (Antici..... pation!)

Anyway, it's something I was discussing with others a while back in that the SNP campaign had a huge surge near the end and that we should expect that. O was roundly laughed at because at the time the support was about 33%. However we've seen that happen. The question really is, has that surge stopped and if it has can it be restarted?

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An 'SNP' surge isnt something I want to talk about, theres already anarmy of No voters who think the referendum question is 'DO YOU LIKE ALEX SALMOND? YES [ ] NO[ ]'

I just want to get to the bottom of these opinion polls and why such a big deal is made of them

[Confidemus]

Re the opinion polls, I'm not sure how much stock you can put in them, whatever the result.

This is a vote unlike any other we've had before. Many, many people have registered to vote that have never done so before. Also, a lot of the new voters are of a demographic that pollsters just won't reach.

From what I've read, and from talking to a Yes campaigner on Prestwick Main St yesterday, the word on the streets shows a VERY different story.