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Next years election ?


lemmy

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I think if the people unite behind SNP then we can force change, at least more change than is about to be offered, even if less than we could have gained last night. Don't agree with all their ideals but a vote for the SNP is probably a good bit more useful than a vote for the Greens.

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Orkney & Shetland will vote Lib Dem... those constituencies along the border will vote Conservative... most of the remaining mainland will vote Labour: the real question is whether the SNP might increase their Westminster seats a touch (via people who voted 'Yes' but didn't previously vote SNP) or lose some ("protest" motivations of 2011 having dissipated and 'No' voters turning-away from them).

Most notably there are a few seats in the northwest which are Lib Dem at Westminister but which the SNP got at Holyrood, which they'll target. They'll also challenge Labour for Dundee West.

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Greens is a wasted vote.

I would rather waste my vote than vote for Labour, Tory, Liberal Democrats or UKIP.

Like Ludo I think we need to be united on one front. I certainly agree with all SNP policies but I will be joining the party. If all the people who are serious about this stand together we will eventually prevail.

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SNP have 6 seats at Westminister out of 59. So how realistic is it for them to meaningfully expand that, unless something very big happens in UK terms?

At the 2010 election they had only 1 realistic target seat, Ochil & South Perthshire, which Labour held. However the Perth & Kinross council area was solid 'No' last night. Next on their targest list was Dundee West where they got gubbed: now, they already have Dundee East and Dundee voted 'Yes' last night, but it would need a big swing to take it off Labour (who incidentally were a lot closer to taking Dundee East off the SNP). I still think their best hope of more seats could be the 3 Lib Dem seats along the north-west coast if there's a collapse in Lib Dem credibility as a result of the coalition but they're a huge way behind in all of them and they have locally popular MPs in John Thurso, Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy, the latter 2 of whom are high-profile.

EDIT: Put another way... in swing terms, the SNP only have 1 realistic target seat for next year's general election, which is the aforementioned Ochil & Perthshire South (5.14% required from Labour). Statistically it's actually closer for the Conservatives to take the other half of the local authority, Perthshire North, or similarly Angus off the SNP!! Meanwhile a swing of only 2.3% is required for Labour to take Dundee East. They may end-up defending their 6, not pursuing more, tbh?

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The SNP will probably do well in some of those Lib Dem constituencies when the predicted collapse occurs. They'll take a couple and I fancy the Conservatives to take a couple off them as well.

The SNP might nick a couple of Labour seats as well if the Labour Yes voters turn on the party.

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The SNP will probably do well in some of those Lib Dem constituencies when the predicted collapse occurs. They'll take a couple and I fancy the Conservatives to take a couple off them as well.

The SNP might nick a couple of Labour seats as well if the Labour Yes voters turn on the party.

In a lot of cases we're talking very large swings, though. And from the perspective of a 'disillusioned Labour supporter' - they know that failing to return a Labour MP, for example by voting SNP, helps the Conservatives to win the general election as a whole?

And for Kennedy or Danny Alexander to be ejected requires huge swings.

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You can have as many MPs of a particular party at Westminster but it is going to mean absolutely nothing.

As has been shown by this referendum, it is who you vote for in the Scottish Parliament and a strong leader at the helm that make things happen. Remember, the Scottish Parliament had no "authority" to grant Scotland a referendum. However, the electorate returned a majority SNP government and Salmond pushed and pushed for Westminster to let the referendum happen.

We had about a million Labour MPs in Westminster during the 80s and 90s during the Tory years and that brought about little to no change.

The only hope I have for the election is that Carmichael and Danny Alexander get absolutely shafted.

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Cameron is going to take this result and shaft Labour and Miliband. If the Tory reforms go through it would be untenable for a Scottish, Welsh or Northern Irish MP to be Prime Minister or Chancellor. They are going to hack away at non-English influence and make sure that a legitimate govt would need a majority in England.

It will be interesting what happens in Scotland with major Labour areas in the West voting Yes and traditional SNP areas voting No. Are the Lib Dems transgressions a distant past? Whatever happens Labour will lose seats after the Scottish people unwaveringly backed Gordon Brown, no way Ed can muster that kind of support.

I think we could also see a Tory revival with maybe 5 MPs. Ayr, Dumfries, Dumfriesshire, Edinburgh South and Berwickshire.

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