jmothecat Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 It wasn't that long ago that the SNP were going on about the largest party having the 'moral authority' to govern. I guess that's changed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
~~~ Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 It wasn't that long ago that the SNP were going on about the largest party having the 'moral authority' to govern. I guess that's changed now. Nice deflection. So will Ed really put the Tories in No.10 if Labour are not the largest party? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milton75 Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Those numbers are better for Labour compared with recent polls (6 points rather than 15+). A downgrade ftom 'wipeout' to 'disaster'. It again demonstrates that it's the Lib Dem collapse that's really killing Labour in Scotland. 6% behind the SNP with over a month to go. That's not as bad as things at one point seemed. Difficult, but doable. I honestly think Scottish Labour will be quietly relieved by that. Labour are in a position of damage limitation, this poll implies much of the damage just might be limited. Far more encouraging for Labour than recent polls. Some were suggesting they'd lose all but 2 seats. They were never going to 'win' any seats that weren't theirs anyway. James Kelly adds caution to the Comres poll. Maybe false hope for Labour? "There's a big caveat here, though. Most Scotland-wide polls are sensibly weighted by recalled vote from the last Holyrood election, and from the referendum. One thing we'll have to look out for is whether ComRes have made the same mistake that Ashcroft did, and weighted their results to recalled vote from 2010 - a procedure that we know is wildly unreliable. They may have felt they had no option but to do that, because they wouldn't have been able to match 2011 Holyrood vote recall to the correct boundaries. But the reality is that if 2011 weighting isn't possible, it would be much better to simply dispense with past vote weighting altogether, because otherwise there's a severe risk of underestimating the SNP's lead." ... which is turns out is precisely the mistake this poll made, making the reality all the more devastating for Labour: UPDATE II : I've now had a chance to look at the datasets, and they are truly bizarre. ComRes have indeed committed the cardinal sin of weighting by recalled 2010 vote - but when they asked people how they voted in 2010, they didn't even give the SNP as an option! The only options were Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, or "some other party". That approach will take quite a bit of justifying, given that the SNP outpolled both the Tories and the Lib Dems in 2010. (Even in 2010.)I can think of two possible explanations for what ComRes have done - either a) stupidity, or b) it's a cunning plan to try to make people less confused over how they voted in 2010, ie. if you don't even offer the SNP as an option, people who voted Labour in 2010 but then switched to the SNP in 2011 might be more likely to answer the question accurately. You'd have to be ultra-charitable to think that was the plan, but even it was, it doesn't appear to have worked to any great extent. Respondents who say they voted for "some other party" have been downweighted from to 264 to 207, meaning that the SNP's position may well have been underestimated due to false recall. At the very least, the use of 2010 weighting means that this poll is not directly comparable with any full-scale Scottish poll, and so the superficial appearance that it may be marginally less awful for Labour than the results we've seen from other firms is fairly meaningless. The point I made above about where the Liberal Democrats' lost votes are going is borne out by the datasets - fractionally more Lib Dem voters from 2010 are planning to vote Labour than for the SNP, but that is being offset by a much bigger shift from Labour to the SNP than the headline numbers would suggest. Perhaps the most devastating detail of the poll from Labour's point of view is that just 33% of respondents say that Labour is the party they most closely identify with, irrespective of their current voting intention. The SNP are only just behind on that measure, on 31%. Remember these numbers are only from seats that Labour won in 2010, in most cases by a massive margin. It really does look as if a large number of ex-Labour voters are not merely "on holiday", but have undergone their own personal revolution, and as a result are not coming back any time soon. http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/cracking-comres-poll-of-all-labour-held.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 It wasn't that long ago that the SNP were going on about the largest party having the 'moral authority' to govern. I guess that's changed now. nope jmo. They said the largest party had the moral right to try and form the govt first. If not, then its up to the 2nd party. If the polls are true and the torys are the largest party then they will have first chance, but guess what.... they wont be able to. So Labour will get a chance and with the SNP they can. Do keep up old boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 It wasn't that long ago that the SNP were going on about the largest party having the 'moral authority' to govern. I guess that's changed now. Possibly. I genuinely don't think the vast majority of those who are voting snp care either way tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 So the poll, which is awful for labour anyway, potential underestimates the SNP. Sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Serious lack of Scottish only polls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmothecat Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Nice deflection. So will Ed really put the Tories in No.10 if Labour are not the largest party? I doubt it. I disagreed with it then and I disagree with it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC92 Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 It wasn't that long ago that the SNP were going on about the largest party having the 'moral authority' to govern. I guess that's changed now. If it's the stated intention of the SNP to vote against any attempt for the Tories to form a government beforehand and people then give them and Labour a larger combined total than the Tories then the notion of "moral authority" goes out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 More Ashcroft polls being released tomorrow at noon. 8 marginal seats - no idea where though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crùbag Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Seems like Labour are trailing, even in a 'rigged' poll of seas they currently hold. This from 'Veterens for Independenc' on Facebook: There's a few things you might want to know about this poll:It only covers the 40 seats currently held by Labour in Scotland.Translated into seats it would give the SNP 28 and Labour 12 of those 40 seats.The SNP are expected to take most of the seats currently held by the LibDems while Labour are struggling to hold the ones they have.The possible outcome of this poll is that Labour keep 12 seats and the SNP end up with around 40 - 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crùbag Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 More Ashcroft polls being released tomorrow at noon. 8 marginal seats - no idea where though.. There's something ominous sounding about that - like a countdown to some terrorist deadline. Even I'm feeling a bit feart by it and I'm not a Labour MP in Scotland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FuzzyAffro Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 What is there for Labour to be positive about? They have a shit sandwich to sell and the only thing going for it is that it isn't as shit as the sandwich the Tories are offering and at least Labour have added seasoning. Meanwhile you've got parties who don't have to worry about government claiming they can do this, or that, or basically anything they want to because their very existence is all that is needed in order to give a return to their supporters. I don't think it is a protest vote, but I can see exactly why Labour want to say it is, they are trying to focus people's minds on the battle they can win, not the one that is already lost. I agree the line itself is poor. They should just talk about the Tories and talk about what Labour would do instead. Ignore the debate many Scots are having and focus on the debate Labour want Scots to be having. It's the same strategy but a different tactic, and would come across less patronisingly and is the best damage limitation I think Labour can have. The arrogance of a Britnat Labour voter. 'Ignore the debate many Scots are having and focus on the debate Labour want Scots to be having.' Absolutely outrageous and a demonstration of why we need independence and how Labour create such zombie morons who act like cult members all at the same time. Party before everything. What a great election strategy eh, ignore the debate in the country your campaigning in. No wonder so many people hate Labour and they are soon to be finished as a political party. Absolutely vile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForzaDundee Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 jmothecat would prefer a Tory government than an Labour/SNP government. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 jmothecat would prefer a Tory government than an Labour/SNP government. It's the labour way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fotbawmad Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Wow, the difference with Patrick Harvie's interview with Sarah Smith. Compared to Natalie Bennett's interview with Andrew Neil's was night and day, and they were both taking the same stance on every issue. Although he probably could have been more clear what he meant when he was discussing issues surround the BoE. While I knew what he was talking about. It was probably the language of rocket science in the mind of the average Joe, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FuzzyAffro Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 jmothecat would prefer a Tory government than an Labour/SNP government. It's the labour way. Its the breathtaking arrogance that gets me, I mean 'Ignore the debate many people are having in Scotland'? Can you imagine even thinking that? Outrageous This is why Labour deserve the biggest continuous kicking at the ballot box that any party has ever had in political history. I want to see Labour routed in every council, Holyrood, Westminster and European election for the rest of time. Absolute scum of a party supported by utter cretins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 This is why Labour deserve the biggest continuous kicking at the ballot box that any party has ever had in political history. I want to see Labour routed in every council, Holyrood, Westminster and European election for the rest of time. Absolute scum of a party supported by utter cretins. Spot on Bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Labour so shite they can't win a majority of seats out of 650 despite Conservative record and LibDem collapse, blame SNP. Laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Apparently the defeated Labour candidate in the Glenrothes bye-election's prediction of the upcoming election for Labour was "carnage". They are in utter disarray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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