Biscuits Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I'm shiting it - September all over again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I wonder how accurate the exit polls will be, they were almost spot on to the number of seats in 2010. There wasn't such a huge difference between Scotland and rUK then though, and I don't know if anyone is doing concentrated polling in Scotland. The exit poll has a massice sample so the Scottish sub sample is statistically relevant. I think we will have a pretty good idea by 10:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SweeperDee Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 The exit poll has a massice sample so the Scottish sub sample is statistically relevant. I think we will have a pretty good idea by 10:30 The phrase you are looking for is statistically significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 STV are I believe. Unionist Bernie mentioned it on one of their adverts. Ponsonby? Is he a unionist? He certainly doesn't give any unionist parties an easy ride and there's no sitting seethe when interviewing Yessers. All in all I don't mind Bernie. I don't think he suffers fools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 The phrase you are looking for is statistically significant. Aye thats it. Wouldnt guess I'm university educated in statistical methods and opinion polling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Ponsonby? Is he a unionist? He certainly doesn't give any unionist parties an easy ride and there's no sitting seethe when interviewing Yessers. All in all I don't mind Bernie. I don't think he suffers fools. Lib Dem candidate in the 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Labour insiders reckon he will scrape through.... Don't get me started again, you. SNP held a 10 point lead in Glasgow Central, and that was pre-surge. There's not enough Tories or Libbies left to swing things in labour's favour unless they all turned Labour, and there's a big green presence here too who will possibly lend their votes to the SNP too. I'd be shocked if he scraped it, but stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YassinMoutaouakil Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Ponsonby? Is he a unionist? He certainly doesn't give any unionist parties an easy ride and there's no sitting seethe when interviewing Yessers. All in all I don't mind Bernie. I don't think he suffers fools. I'm pretty sure he's a Lib Dem, or at least used to be. No idea if he's a unionist or a nat, I thought he was pretty good over the course of the referendum though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SweeperDee Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Aye thats it. Wouldnt guess I'm university educated in statistical methods and opinion polling I have a stats exam tomorrow, couldn't bring myself to let it slide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Ponsonby? Is he a unionist? He certainly doesn't give any unionist parties an easy ride and there's no sitting seethe when interviewing Yessers. All in all I don't mind Bernie. I don't think he suffers fools. I got him mixed up with Brian Taylor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Lib Dem candidate in the 80s I'm pretty sure he's a Lib Dem, or at least used to be. No idea if he's a unionist or a nat, I thought he was pretty good over the course of the referendum though. Ahh there you go then. Back when the Lib Dems were relevant (sorry Libby - cheap dig) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Aye thats it. Wouldnt guess I'm university educated in statistical methods and opinion polling Unlike the inexperienced politicos who work for the polling companies. Some are totally unprofessional. As a client, I have had to reword questions to eliminate bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antiochas III Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I'm pretty sure he's a Lib Dem, or at least used to be. No idea if he's a unionist or a nat, I thought he was pretty good over the course of the referendum though. Agreed. Thought he did his job well during the referendum. Tbh don't care if he is Unionist or Not as long as he continues to come across impartial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I got him mixed up with Brian Taylor Brian Taylor looks like my dad so much that my daughter shouts papa whenever he appears on the telly (cool story eh?). I don't really mind him either (Brian Taylor - not my dad (he's a right c**t)). I get the impression he's old Labour but again I didn't think he was too biased during the referendum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 The exit poll has a massice sample so the Scottish sub sample is statistically relevant. I think we will have a pretty good idea by 10:30 Anyone been asked how they voted when leaving the polls? Sure I heard one of the polling companies saying they couldn't be arsed sending people up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YassinMoutaouakil Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I don't really mind him either (Brian Taylor - not my dad (he's a right cut)). Way too much information about your dad's genitals there mate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Way too much information about your dad's genitals there mate. My fucking laptop is about to get lobbed out the window. The keyboard is horrendous - and regularly just misses out letters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ya Bezzer! Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 IF SNP, dont get 42 seats +.... then it will be the biggest pile of polling shite ever! Or democracy has failed. To go from 6 to 42 is surely impossible. For me to get half the seats would be an incredible result for the SNP. What a lot of SNP supporters need to realise is that there are huge numbers of voters out there who go out and dutifully vote Labour, without every getting engaged in the political debate at all. There really is a silent majority out there, usually 50+ voters who aren't on social media and for whom newspapers and television are still their primary sources of information. We are seeing a switch between one set of voters to another but right now I believe the old school post WWII Labour support still holds the upper hand in terms of national elections, if only because the voter turn out in that group is much higher than among younger or middle aged people. In the next 10 to 15 years I think the way Scotland votes is going to radically alter just as it did in the 1950s/1960s when the Scottish conservative vote went from almost 50% into steep decline but now we shouldn't get too downhearted if there isn't a huge surge in seats for the SNP. Long term everything is on our side but it might not be today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YassinMoutaouakil Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 My fucking laptop is about to get lobbed out the window. The keyboard is horrendous - and regularly just misses out letters.Aye, my phone's autocorrect seems to have a bizzare vandetta against me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 To go from 6 to 42 is surely impossible. For me to get half the seats would be an incredible result for the SNP. What a lot of SNP supporters need to realise is that there are huge numbers of voters out there who go out and dutifully vote Labour, without every getting engaged in the political debate at all. There really is a silent majority out there, usually 50+ voters who aren't on social media and for whom newspapers and television are still their primary sources of information. We are seeing a switch between one set of voters to another but right now I believe the old school post WWII Labour support still holds the upper hand in terms of national elections, if only because the voter turn out in that group is much higher than among younger or middle aged people. In the next 10 to 15 years I think the way Scotland votes is going to radically alter just as it did in the 1950s/1960s when the Scottish conservative vote went from almost 50% into steep decline but now we shouldn't get too downhearted if there isn't a huge surge in seats for the SNP. Long term everything is on our side but it might not be today. Or look on the bright side.. http://www.thenational.scot/politics/thousands-of-oaps-unable-to-cast-votes-in-scandalous-mix-up-over-registration.2710 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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