Mr Bairn Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This is my first GE as a voter and probably one of the most interesting in memory. Could go either way between the top two. A majority is looking increasingly unlikely, even if there's an incumbency bounce the Tories will probably maintain 2010 levels (just over 300 seats) at best. Labour won't get a majority because they aren't even polling one at the moment and oppositions struggle in the campaign time. Whoever gets the most votes and the most seats will likely get the first chance to find a dance partner, however it wouldn't surprise me if the Tories get more votes but Labour get more seats. In that case the Tories probably go first because they're incumbents, but Labour more likely to actually govern. I think that Labour and the Tories probably split about 570 seats between them, the SNP and Lib Dems get around 25 each, UKIP get 5 or 6, the Greens, Respect and Plaid keep their current seats and obviously the Irish parties. I'll say it will be: Labour 290 Tories 280 Lib Dems 25 SNP 25 DUP 10 UKIP 6 Sinn Fein 5 SDLP 3 Plaid Cymru 3 Greens 1 Respect 1 Speaker 1 SNP, the Greens and Plaid form a left wing working block, making them the 3rd largest "party" and giving them 29 seats, but if they supported Labour, they'd still be 7 short. Of course Labour can count on the backing of the SDLP and George Galloway, but they still aren't quite there. I still think the Lib Dems are the kingmakers. It'll be upto them whether they want to keep the orange bookers and work with the Tories, UKIP and the DUP, or elect a leader from the left of the party and work with Labour/SNP/PC/Greens/Respect/SDLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capybara Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-31000167 No coalition says Balls. Good says I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-31000167 No coalition says Balls. Good says I. Aye wont be saying that after election. Tosser imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
~~~ Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-31000167 No coalition says Balls. Good says I. Wouldn't it be fair to say, Labour would need the SNP much more than the SNP needs Labour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
~~~ Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Oh FFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Oh FFS ImageUploadedByPie & Bovril1422382943.603610.jpg They just cant stomach putting SNP on form (other). Hope SNP get more MPs than fibdems.. how can they then justify having them on surveys and not SNP. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Let's hope the optimists are right, genuinely. It would be an utter earthquake if the SNP got anything near 53 MPs and a confimration that Labour's appeal, like the Tories, is largely restricted to south of the border. Jim Murphy's "leadership" would also crash in flames at the end of the runway, before getting airborne. That's equally pleasing. However, I still think it is very unlikely the SNP will get anything like that number of MPs as bar a complete collapse in numbers many of Labour's majorities are just too big to be overturned. This blog by C4's Gary Gibbon is also sobering in terms of what influence a large SNP group might wield at Westminster. Their being asked to join a coalition- however big their number- looks unlikely, if this stuff is true. Of course bone-headed thugs like Iain Davidson speaking out against it is no surprise, but he seems to be speaking for a Labour majority. The Tories equally will not play ball. I agree that anything in the region of 50 seats is incredibly unlikely. However, 30-40 is more than doable as things stand. Lord Ashcroft has individual Scottish constituency polls coming out next week which should be very, very interesting. Also, Ladbrokes have the SNP at 4/9 to win the most Scottish seats and they're 5/6 to get 33 or over. They're just 1/3 to win 26 or more with William Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Three things. Firstly, has Sturgeon not already ruled out a formal coalition? I thought she had, if so Balls announcement is a bit daft though I recognise he's just playing to an audience. Secondly, the Labour MPs that despise the SNP the most are the Scottish ones. Sure, English Labour MPs have an axe to grind if they genuinely buy into the bullshit about Scots getting more funding, but for most of them it's just electioneering waffle. If the SNP return anything like the number of MPs that's being suggested then most of their detractors will have lost their seats, and trust me, no-one is interested in the views of ex MPs. Following on from that, the third point is that if the SNP hold the balance of power they always have the nuclear option of a vote of no confidence. Those Labour MPs who have won their seats and see themselves safe for the next 5 years won't want the possibility of another General Election. They will have far fewer colleagues from Scotland trying to poison the well and may be far more likely to work with the SNP than many may consider at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Labour have to stringently deny that they won't go into coalition with the SNP to avoid alienating any anti-Jock voters. Although they would likely face a backlash in the future if they decided to then go ahead and do it after the election anyway. For that reason, I'd say there's next no chance of the SNP going into any formal coalition, which I'm happy with. As for Gorgeous George, he will be out on his arse in May and I'm looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Labour 290 Tories 280 Lib Dems 25 SNP 25 DUP 10 UKIP 6 Sinn Fein 5 SDLP 3 Plaid Cymru 3 Greens 1 Respect 1 Speaker 1 Think you probably meant 9 DUP plus an independent of the Unionist persuasion (Sylvia Herman) in North Down. The main interest in the failed statelet will probably whether the SDLP can hold onto their three seats given they are in slow but steady decline as an electoral force and that could have a significant knock-on effect on the coalition calculations if the numbers are close. Can understand why people are reluctant to believe the SNP could win 40+ and are doing the expectation management thing, but if Scottish elections have shown anything it is that there is a tipping point where most of the central belt goes SNP, so under 20 mainly at the expense of the Lib Dems or over 40 are the most likely outcomes with only a comparatively narrow window for something in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SodjesSixteenIncher Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's far too early for me to trust the Scottish people not to shit their wee pants and vote for the depressingly familiar option. I don't care what the polls say, there's millions of let down c***s out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AberdeenBud Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Even if they were in a position to be coalition partners I think the snp would be far better severed entering a confidence and supply agreement with Eck holding his finger on the nuclear button. I can just picture the "Most Dangerous Man in Britain" headlines in the Mail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaikuHibee Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I agree that anything in the region of 50 seats is incredibly unlikely. However, 30-40 is more than doable as things stand. Lord Ashcroft has individual Scottish constituency polls coming out next week which should be very, very interesting. Also, Ladbrokes have the SNP at 4/9 to win the most Scottish seats and they're 5/6 to get 33 or over. They're just 1/3 to win 26 or more with William Hill. I hope you are right. Twenty would be awesome though. More seats than Lib Dems..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaikuHibee Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Three things. Firstly, has Sturgeon not already ruled out a formal coalition? I thought she had, if so Balls announcement is a bit daft though I recognise he's just playing to an audience. Secondly, the Labour MPs that despise the SNP the most are the Scottish ones. Sure, English Labour MPs have an axe to grind if they genuinely buy into the bullshit about Scots getting more funding, but for most of them it's just electioneering waffle. If the SNP return anything like the number of MPs that's being suggested then most of their detractors will have lost their seats, and trust me, no-one is interested in the views of ex MPs. Following on from that, the third point is that if the SNP hold the balance of power they always have the nuclear option of a vote of no confidence. Those Labour MPs who have won their seats and see themselves safe for the next 5 years won't want the possibility of another General Election. They will have far fewer colleagues from Scotland trying to poison the well and may be far more likely to work with the SNP than many may consider at the moment. This is what I hope. We see some mature debate. Instead of slab spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's far too early for me to trust the Scottish people not to shit their wee pants and vote for the depressingly familiar option. I don't care what the polls say, there's millions of let down c***s out there. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kejan Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Even if they were in a position to be coalition partners I think the snp would be far better severed entering a confidence and supply agreement with Eck holding his finger on the nuclear button. I can just picture the "Most Dangerous Man in Britain" headlines in the Mail. It's worth voting SNP just for that headline alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
O'Kelly Isley III Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 At this stage in the run-in Labour should be scared shitless at their neck-and-neck percentages with the Tories, at a point where they really need a 6 to7% lead to have a chance of forming a Government. Expect fragile UKIP votes to seep back to the Tories as the weeks pass and the intensity rises. Not that I'm worried, mind, in fact for wholly political reasons I hope UK Labour are trailing badly on the morning of 7th May, as people here realise that despite Murphy's exhortations, a vote for Labour is a complete and utter waste of time. It always was morally of course, but let it also be damned statistically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinkinFighter Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's far too early for me to trust the Scottish people not to shit their wee pants and vote for the depressingly familiar option. I don't care what the polls say, there's millions of let down c***s out there.My feeling too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
~~~ Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I wonder what the odds are on someone from the Labour party breaking down in tears if they get a hammered in the election up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fotbawmad Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-31000167 No coalition says Balls. Good says I. Playing hardball IMO. It's not wise for them to talk about coalitions until the votes are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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