Mr Bairn Posted April 19, 2015 Author Share Posted April 19, 2015 I'm not sure where "internal polling" lies on the spectrum of selective truths to outright bullshit. Remember those "mass canvas" results that RIC kept churning out? All parties are probably at it. My guess is the Lib Dem polling did actually happen but the sample was probably selected as being from the strongest Lib Dem parts of the constituency, then again it wouldn't shock me if they just made the figures up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Brian Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 I'm not sure where "internal polling" lies on the spectrum of selective truths to outright bullshit. Remember those "mass canvas" results that RIC kept churning out? All parties are probably at it. My guess is the Lib Dem polling did actually happen but the sample was probably selected as being from the strongest Lib Dem parts of the constituency, then again it wouldn't shock me if they just made the figures up. There's quite a bit of a difference between canvassing and internal polling though. Also those mass canvasses by RIC were probably pretty accurate, for the areas they were done in. Anyone that canvassed a less well of area will tell you nine times out of ten returned a large Yes majority. Had RIC canvassed Morningside and the likes it would have been quite different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Again: the SNP were 13% ahead of Labour in Alistair Darling's seat of Edinburgh South West. If the SNP take that (at a canter), they will certainly take that no-mark Murray's neighbouring seat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Rational Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 I've heard internal polling has Labour (ian Murray) marginally ahead of the SNP in Edinburgh South. The suggestion is that Tories (Morningside) are voting tactically for Labour to keep the SNP out. Sounds like they reckon there might only be a couple of hundred votes in it though. A bit of perspective, Edinburgh South had the lowest %age SNP vote in the country last time out. It's correct. Labour are getting trounced in the schemes, but as I said a few weeks back and got laughed at on here, there is clear tactical voting going on in that the Tory vote is switching to Labour to keep Neil out. That's the reason I'm asking folk if they are SNP members in Edinburgh. We need boots on the ground right now as labour are pulling activists from other areas to get Murray over the finishing line. They are ahead but it's only point something, under 1% and we can win this. But it's not going to be easy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 20, 2015 Author Share Posted April 20, 2015 Again: the SNP were 13% ahead of Labour in Alistair Darling's seat of Edinburgh South West. If the SNP take that (at a canter), they will certainly take that no-mark Murray's neighbouring seat. That's not how this works. Remember in the 2007 election, the SNP gained 20 seats from Labour, however their top 3 target seats that they were closest to winning in 2003 all stayed with the incumbents. Darling is resigning, so that normalises the seat somewhat. Also Edinburgh South is less "schemey" than South West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Rational Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Yep, even in Gilmerton where I live, there isn't a scheme these days. The Hyvots is the closest and that's all shared ownership with Dunedin Canmore. Everything is owned or part owned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 20, 2015 Author Share Posted April 20, 2015 Whereas South West has Saughton, Balgreen, Broomhouse, Murrayburn, Sighthill, Wester Hailes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Rational Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Birdie house and Southhouse is the only schemes I can think of in south and I'm not worried about them one bit. Moredun needs a bit of work but that's in hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 20, 2015 Author Share Posted April 20, 2015 I just think yous will get horsed in Morningside, Marchmont, Sciennes etc. Question is how the unionists will split the vote. If it consolidates behind Labour then it could be game over in that seat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Rational Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 I'm not worried about Morningside, very busy and active branch down there, it's the rest of the place which is giving me grey hairs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Edinburgh South West had just a 3% higher yes vote than Edinburgh South did. Unsurprisingly, Ashcroft still has the SNP slightly ahead there - near enough in line with my prediction from last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 There isn't a single 'Unionist vote' to speak of because this isn't an independence referendum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 For all this "campaigning" going on, the sum total I've seen of it living in Edinburgh-SW is a leaflet each from the main parties through the front door - by that measure costco and the local takeaways therefore put more effort in to garnering my attention - then again i guess they need it more than once every five years. Was the same in the referendum. I also reckon the polls are weighted towards the snp - their supporters have been very active in joining up to the poll companies panels. After all, that's how people get asked - has anyone here ever been surveyed (for owt) that wasn't a thinly veiled sales call - i know i haven't there's been huge swings to the SNP in council by elections ie real polls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted May 3, 2015 Author Share Posted May 3, 2015 Will be revealing my final predictions tonight. Aiming to nail every seat in Scotland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Will be revealing my final predictions tonight. Aiming to nail every seat in Scotland. Looking forward to it Mr B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Analysis of each seat and prediction http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/6436512/Our-forecast-for-every-sear-in-Scotland.html?CMP=spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-ScottishSun-_-20150501-_-SunScotNews-_-175579066 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Looks about right to me. Only one I think they are off base on is West Dunbartonshire given Yes won there in the referendum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 I may well join you, if you don't mind me hijacking your thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Brian Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Looks about right to me. Only one I think they are off base on is West Dunbartonshire given Yes won there in the referendum. Was talking to someone from up that way yesterday and they seemed to think that Dumbarton itself was the problem. Dumbarton was described as "A funny place" They reckoned Clydebank and the Vale of Leven were safe SNP majorities So it's going to be tight according to them, but I got the impression they weren't preparing for victory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Looks about right to me. Only one I think they are off base on is West Dunbartonshire given Yes won there in the referendum. Agree. I think SNP will win here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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