Holyrood '16 polls and predictions

[welshbairn]

No, because the entire conversation around tax has been based on what will happen next year, indeed the SNP plan not to pass on the 40% tax cut is based on what Swinney can do with Smith, not what he can do with Calman. Likewise the SNP's repsonse to not putting the 50% tax rate back was not to point out that under current rules they'd have to put the rest of the bands up by 5% but to publish a behavioural study showing it might cost them revenue. So clearly, the SNP and their interlocutors in the media are both talking in terms of Smith income tax powers, not the utterly irrelevent Calman powers (which Labour have at least proven as useless).

 

Of course, any conversation around Calman or Smith and who can do what, when is irrelevent when talking about council tax, where the SNP were fairly gutless. As I said, the raising of the top 4 bands, while being a bit less progressive than the band tweaking by Labour, actually at least raises extra revenue and mostly from the better off. It is far and away from making the tax itself progressive. it's the most minor of minor tweaks, which as critics point out they could've done at any point since 2007.

 

Now, I'm still voting SNP in May as in other respects they've shown movement towards good policies in terms of land reform, rent control and renewables investment. They are also the only competent and ready for government party out there, and the only major party that wants Scottish independence. I'm not going to pretend however that on tax, on this first, big test of differentiating themselves from Westminster, they've been anything other than timid.

 

If I thought SNP had any chance of losing I'd vote for them. As they don't I'm voting Labour on constituency (only SNP, Tory, Lib Dem and them available) and Green on the list, as a vain attempt to persuade SNP to honour their commitments to fight austerity. The refusal to grant any authority to Councils on revenue raising and the limp changes offered was the last straw for me, along with doing next to nothing on income tax while local services to those who need them most are being cut to the bone. As someone who believes the possibility of fracking should at least be explored, voting Green will be a bit weird.

[Peppino Impastato]

If I thought SNP had any chance of losing I'd vote for them. As they don't I'm voting Labour on constituency (only SNP, Tory, Lib Dem and them available) and Green on the list, as a vain attempt to persuade SNP to honour their commitments to fight austerity. The refusal to grant any authority to Councils on revenue raising and the limp changes offered was the last straw for me, along with doing next to nothing on income tax while local services to those who need them most are being cut to the bone. As someone who believes the possibility of fracking should at least be explored, voting Green will be a bit weird.

 

 

This is daft tbh.  See all these folk who go on about the SNP fighting austerity that was at Westminster last year, the SNP proposed a 0.5% increase in public spending to grow out of austerity.  But the Tories won and austerity is now a reality the SNP can do very little about.  

 

People just don't seem to understand that, and it is the plan of the WM government to enact austerity and make the SNP carry the can for it to make them unpopular.

[Loondave1]

This is daft tbh. See all these folk who go on about the SNP fighting austerity that was at Westminster last year, the SNP proposed a 0.5% increase in public spending to grow out of austerity. But the Tories won and austerity is now a reality the SNP can do very little about.

People just don't seem to understand that, and it is the plan of the WM government to enact austerity and make the SNP carry the can for it to make them unpopular.

Do you get a free tinfoil hat with that opinion?? Westminster must be making the SNP keep up the council tax freeze as well I would imagine. Part of their brilliant plan to wreck the SNPs popularity.

[Crossbill]

Have the SNP decided to freeze council tax again, then?  That was a U-turn of Labouresque rapidity.

 

Either that or you are talking bollocks.

[H Wragg]

Glad you like it mate.

Yes all the candidates are confirmed. Hardly anyone outwith the main parties is standing in the constituencies. I've entered everyone that is standing in the regional vote, but some of them will only be standing in one or two regions.

*Pedant alert*

You have a 'sitting MP' column instead of 'sitting MSP'.

[renton]

If I thought SNP had any chance of losing I'd vote for them. As they don't I'm voting Labour on constituency (only SNP, Tory, Lib Dem and them available) and Green on the list, as a vain attempt to persuade SNP to honour their commitments to fight austerity. The refusal to grant any authority to Councils on revenue raising and the limp changes offered was the last straw for me, along with doing next to nothing on income tax while local services to those who need them most are being cut to the bone. As someone who believes the possibility of fracking should at least be explored, voting Green will be a bit weird.

I think if I felt that way I'd spoil my ballot. The SNP plans may be timid but by contrast Labour's are woefully inept.

[welshbairn]

I think if I felt that way I'd spoil my ballot. The SNP plans may be timid but by contrast Labour's are woefully inept.

 

I wouldn't vote Labour if they had any chance of winning, it's just a maybe futile message to the SNP that they shouldn't take the Left vote for granted.

[pandarilla]

That's like doing a shite then realising that there's no toilet but rather than just accepting your fate and walking about with a shitey bum instead choosing to clean yer arse with your tongue.

This is a gif tastic post. What the f**k?

[welshbairn]

That's like doing a shite then realising that there's no toilet but rather than just accepting your fate and walking about with a shitey bum instead choosing to clean yer arse with your tongue. 

 

 

I might even vote Tory if it meant I could give myself a gobble. 

[vikingTON]

If I thought SNP had any chance of losing I'd vote for them. As they don't I'm voting Labour on constituency (only SNP, Tory, Lib Dem and them available) and Green on the list, as a vain attempt to persuade SNP to honour their commitments to fight austerity. The refusal to grant any authority to Councils on revenue raising and the limp changes offered was the last straw for me, along with doing next to nothing on income tax while local services to those who need them most are being cut to the bone. As someone who believes the possibility of fracking should at least be explored, voting Green will be a bit weird.

 

Enjoy the delusion of thinking that voting for a centrist party that stands no chance of winning any constituency seats will hold the SNP to account on a 'fight austerity' pledge. I bet Sturgeon is currently shitting herself at the prospect and trying to formulate the next Communist Manifesto to keep delicate little flowers like yourself on the 'radical'/loser/irrelevant left happy. Or perhaps not.   

[Bishop Briggs]

 

 

I might even vote Tory if it meant I could give myself a gobble. 

 

 

 

[welshbairn]

Enjoy the delusion of thinking that voting for a centrist party that stands no chance of winning any constituency seats will hold the SNP to account on a 'fight austerity' pledge. I bet Sturgeon is currently shitting herself at the prospect and trying to formulate the next Communist Manifesto to keep delicate little flowers like yourself on the 'radical'/loser/irrelevant left happy. Or perhaps not.   

 

It's quite possible that the 60% regular polls for independence that Sturgeon says would be essential before calling for another referendum won't happen for another generation. I'm not going to sit watching the SNP's futile toadying to the nearly universally dedicated unionist Tory voters until then, so an equally futile gesture it is.

[Antlion]

Do you get a free tinfoil hat with that opinion?? Westminster must be making the SNP keep up the council tax freeze as well I would imagine. Part of their brilliant plan to wreck the SNPs popularity.

In what way is his post inaccurate or conspiracy theorist? The Conservatives have control of the UK's sovereign parliament. They are committed to an austerity agenda. A devolved parliament cannot overturn that decision.

The oft-repeated line from Dugdale about "ending austerity" from Holyrood is a soundbite designed to appeal to idiots. Holyrood doesn't have that power. All that slab want to do is have people in Scotland pay more so that the spending decisions resulting from the sovereign parliament's austerity agenda is not felt (or not felt as much). That's not "ending" austerity. It is simply finding ways to make people pay not to feel its effects.

Consider: if a child's pocket money is cut by his parents, he might worry about being unable to afford his monthly comics. However, if that child opts to start using the money he gets from his weekly visit to his grandparents, he can still afford his comics. He's still out of pocket, but he won't feel the effect of his parents' cut in pocket money on his comic book budget. What he couldn't do is pretend that his parents' decision simply isn't happening; he's just mitigating an unwelcome effect of it. (Conversely, the boy's big brother might accept the cut, do without his weekly copy of Nuts, and retain the grandparents' bung in his pocket. Still, neither sibling has affected the initial parental cutting of pocket money.)

[pandarilla]

Enjoy the delusion of thinking that voting for a centrist party that stands no chance of winning any constituency seats will hold the SNP to account on a 'fight austerity' pledge. I bet Sturgeon is currently shitting herself at the prospect and trying to formulate the next Communist Manifesto to keep delicate little flowers like yourself on the 'radical'/loser/irrelevant left happy. Or perhaps not.

Left wing folk and ideas really do leave you seething. Literally spewing over your keyboard/phone screen/tablet.

[Kyle]

Would it not be better just to leave the constituency vote blank and vote green on the list? I can't fathom the logic of trying to get at one party that's let you down by voting for another one, which is offering an incoherent, unworkable alternative and that you don't remotely support.

[Reluctant Hero]

*Pedant alert*

You have a 'sitting MP' column instead of 'sitting MSP'.

 

 

If we voted yes we would now be referring to our MSPs as MPs

 

[welshbairn]

Would it not be better just to leave the constituency vote blank and vote green on the list? I can't fathom the logic of trying to get at one party that's let you down by voting for another one, which is offering an incoherent, unworkable alternative and that you don't remotely support.

 

I resent the fact that there are so few choices on the Constituency ballot, first time I've been eligible to vote for Holyrood so not used to the system. Voting Labour seems the only way to send a feeble message.

 

P.S. Labour have a lovely husband and wife team up here, what's not to like?

[vikingTON]

It's quite possible that the 60% regular polls for independence that Sturgeon says would be essential before calling for another referendum won't happen for another generation. I'm not going to sit watching the SNP's futile toadying to the nearly universally dedicated unionist Tory voters until then, so an equally futile gesture it is.

 

Whines about 'toadying to unionist Tory voters'; claims he'll be voting Labour.

 

[Fide]

If I thought SNP had any chance of losing I'd vote for them. As they don't I'm voting Labour on constituency (only SNP, Tory, Lib Dem and them available) and Green on the list, as a vain attempt to persuade SNP to honour their commitments to fight austerity.

 

Yeah that's really sticking it to the man.  Vote for the party of abstainers to send a strong message to the party who negated the bedroom tax and fought the Tories harder than Labstain.

 

You tell em!

[vikingTON]

Left wing folk and ideas really do leave you seething. Literally spewing over your keyboard/phone screen/tablet.

 

Entirely incorrect. I'm very open to credible, left-wing views and my own social/economic views are well to the bottom left of the Left/Right political chart. What I am not open to is the sudden explosion in the prominence (but thankfully, not a statistically significant number) of braying Yes voters who did so on the dubious basis that 'Laebur left me', and are already making such ludicrous claims such as:

 

a) that the radical left's voice 'won' anything at all during the independence movement - a movement which after all didn't win the referendum, which they barely seem to notice. Of course, the British left's track record of losing almost every single substantial political conflict and later declaring victory by 'engaging people' is pretty extensive by now.

b) that the Only Show in Town are somehow beholden to the radical left for a) and so must make a politically suicidal lurch to the left in order to placate them. A ludicrous and groundless claim being made when the SNP is currently engaging in the central task of gaining independence - shoeing the unionist parties, their national and local organisations up and down the country until, by the time of the next referendum, 99% of BitterTogether campaigners will have to be brought in by a fleet of buses from the Home Counties.

 

The last six months haven't been a breakthrough moment for the 'radical left' at all, nor have they matched the large gains made by the always flawed SSP as well as the Greens in 2003. This is the 'radical left' devouring themselves in an all-too-typical manner: believing in their own sadly clueless self-hype and demanding that their specific and usually politically sectarian ideologies should be adopted or else. Well no, that's not a route to success for the left in any state: never mind a country that still needs to gain sovereignty over its own affairs.

 

I suspect that there are far too many people currently on the "Laebur left me" ticket who would chuck Scottish sovereignty under the next bus, if they could drag Britnat Labour back to even a Kinnock-era stance. Those embittered Granny Dangers should be disregarded. There's also a new "radical left" fringe element though who are clearly being deployed as useful idiots by the media, in order to gain a fresh dose of SNPBad coverage that won't tank quite so readily as the mainstream unionist efforts did twelve months ago. If I were able to vote in May then I'd be considering a Green second vote to try and get a realistic, pro-Indy alternative on the list, given that the SNP will romp the regional constituencies, but once people start posturing for anything beyond that choice then their motives/sense must always be questioned.