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Holyrood '16 polls and predictions


Crùbag

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Ruth again on Good Morning Scotland once again banging on the nationalist drum.

It did make me laugh as she blames tactical voting for the Scottish Tories losing votes at the WM elections

She could well be right in Berwickshire to be fair - the tactical voting numpties were telling everyone to vote lib dem :lol:

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http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13812719.Poll__SNP_retain_35__point_lead_over_Labour_ahead_of_Holyrood_2016_election/?ref=mr&lp=7

Posted 40 minutes ago.

Headline results

SNP 56%

Labour 21%

Tories 12%

Lib Dems 6%

TNS poll - 1037 people polled.

Considering the 'hugely popular' election of the new UK labour leader and the seemingly endless negative press the SNP has been getting (justifiably if some of the allegations are true) that's remarkable. A 35 point lead. :lol:

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http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13812719.Poll__SNP_retain_35__point_lead_over_Labour_ahead_of_Holyrood_2016_election/?ref=mr&lp=7

Posted 40 minutes ago.

Headline results

SNP 56%

Labour 21%

Tories 12%

Lib Dems 6%

TNS poll - 1037 people polled.

Considering the 'hugely popular' election of the new UK labour leader and the seemingly endless negative press the SNP has been getting (justifiably if some of the allegations are true) that's remarkable. A 35 point lead. :lol:

The list is as follows;

SNP: 52% (+1)

LAB: 23% (-1)

CON: 11% (-)

LD: 6% (-)

GRN: 5% (-1)

UKIP: 3% (+1)

If that polling came through on the day, the Scottish parliament would look like the following:

SNP: 76

Labour: 33

Tories: 11

Lib Dems: 6

Greens: 3

UKIP: 0

All of the Labour seats would be on the list. The Tories would hold two constituency seats and the LD's one.

Strangely the LDs actually gain a seat, and the Greens do not see much dividend from their pro Indy stance.

having said that, if the Greens go up by one point and the LDs down by one point, the LDs only lose one seat back to their 2011 levels and the Greens go from 2-5 seats.

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As brutal as it is to try and game the list system, it's fair to say on those constituency numbers, you don't get much bang for your buck by going SNP-SNP. If 10% of the SNP list vote switched to the Greens (or even RISE, should that become any kind of a force), they could gain something like 15 seats, and the SNP would only lose 5 seats, further squeezing Labour.

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Last month just for the hell of it, I went through every regions constituencies and lists and tried to work out who would win what. Nothing scientific and you'll probably end up disagreeing with a lot of it, but I just went off of previous majorities/personal thoughts.

Anyhoo, here are the 8 regions and the final seat numbers that I reached. Would be interested to hear some thoughts!

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post-13555-0-85618600-1444300854_thumb.j

post-13555-0-97941300-1444300862_thumb.j

post-13555-0-02826800-1444300870_thumb.j

post-13555-0-21937200-1444300874_thumb.j

post-13555-0-22337000-1444300879_thumb.j

post-13555-0-21201100-1444300885_thumb.j

post-13555-0-11983800-1444300891_thumb.j

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Are the conservatives really favourites to win Ayr? Considering the general election results for the SNP in Ayr and Ayrshire general, I'm struggling to see past them on a FPTP election there?

Looks quite fair to me though. The Greens look a little bit overpowered, possibly labour too all things considered. I think the Tories may take 20-21 at this moment in time. If they can get the 'party of the union' argument off the ground, they'll possibly do even better.

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As brutal as it is to try and game the list system, it's fair to say on those constituency numbers, you don't get much bang for your buck by going SNP-SNP. If 10% of the SNP list vote switched to the Greens (or even RISE, should that become any kind of a force), they could gain something like 15 seats, and the SNP would only lose 5 seats, further squeezing Labour.

That's precisely why I'll be going SNP-Green, or possibly Green-Green in May.

RISE seem well intentioned, but I'm not particularly confident they'll have much substance beyond being pro independence

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SNP 16-34: 68%

Labour in Scotland 16-34: 12% :o

I genuinely think the Tories have a higher voter base in young people in Scotland. Those figures back it up as well, but I'm 28 and I know far more Tories than I do labourites around my age and younger.

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That's precisely why I'll be going SNP-Green, or possibly Green-Green in May.

RISE seem well intentioned, but I'm not particularly confident they'll have much substance beyond being pro independence

Are you likely to have a Green constituency candidate? I've only heard of Patrick Harvey standing in the Glasgow Kelvin seat (and top of the green list, obviously as well)

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Are the conservatives really favourites to win Ayr? Considering the general election results for the SNP in Ayr and Ayrshire general, I'm struggling to see past them on a FPTP election there?

Looks quite fair to me though. The Greens look a little bit overpowered, possibly labour too all things considered. I think the Tories may take 20-21 at this moment in time. If they can get the 'party of the union' argument off the ground, they'll possibly do even better.

I was actually worried that I was already too bias by putting us as gaining 3 seats. :P Ayr was one of the ones I struggled with to be honest, but I think I just put it down as a Tory hold since it's been the same MSP since 2000 and our one seat at the General Election we held on to quite successfully. Also I believe the boundaries favour Tories slightly more in the Scottish Parliament seat as opposed to the UK one? That might not be true though.

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