Holyrood '16 polls and predictions

[Fide]

#deadcat

[invergowrie arab]

Today's numbers would give Tories and labour 24 each.

[glasgow-sheep]

What about Green regional numbers?

[invergowrie arab]

No numbers for greens in the poll. But given 14% left for UKIP, greens, rise and Tommy's latest mob 5-7 seats seems about right.

[renton]

I got it as:

SNP: 70

Lab: 25

Con: 25

LD: 4

GRN: 5

UKIP: 0

What's interesting from that survey is how closely the regional list follows the constituency list:

SNP 51/45

Lab: 21/20

Con: 19/19

LD: 5/5

The only major discrepency is the SNP offset, where that 5-6% offset is probably due to the green regional vote of 5% - so that's your SNP/Green voters there. It may suggest that any further rise in the fortunes of the Greens or something like RISE are likely to come out of the SNP regional list, which isn't an issue in of itself providing the SNP consituency vote holds up. The smaller left parties will be hoping it does to have any chance of folk risking their second vote on them in May....

[renton]

Indy question is at 48/52 in favour of No, pretty much as you were from the last poll as well. Of course, it's further proof, were it needed that the Yes numbers hold up, and were not a temporary spike before reverting back to the low 30s.

[renton]

I should've put this all in one post:

Anyway, trust/do not trust:

Labour: 25/67

Tories: 21/71

LDs: 17/73

SNP: 45/50

The SNP there, the only party with anything like a neutral to favourable view on trustworthyness.

On income tax:

Raise Income tax to improve public services:

Support: 52

Don't support: 37

Raise income tax to increase benefits and tax credits:

Support: 30

Don't support: 57

Cut the income tax by slashing funding in public services:

Support: 13

Don't support: 74

Cut the income tax by slashing benefits/tax credits:

Support: 27

Don't support: 60

Mixed bag of results there, particularly the bit where Scots seem to differentiate between the NHS and the welfare state as public services. On paper at least they seem happy to raise the income tax to protect services, like NHS Scotland and are at least unwilling to support any further slashing of benefits even if it meant reducing income tax - though they would be unwilling to support a tax rise if they thought it were going to bolster the tax credits system.

Finally, the media assault on Michelle Thomson seems to have gained traction with the YG panel suggesting that 67% are in favour of her resigning as an MP vs 17% who say she shouldn't and 23% who don't know.

it's not looking good for Carmichael either though, as the court of public opinion suggests by almost the same margins as thomson that he should go.

The eerie similarity between the numbers on those last two would suggest a lack of partisan breakdown by party, and would point towards a general lack of patience with regards to any kind of percieved bad behaviour by an MP, regardless of circumstance.

[strichener]

I should've put this all in one post:

Anyway, trust/do not trust:

Labour: 25/67

Tories: 21/71

LDs: 17/73

SNP: 45/50

The SNP there, the only party with anything like a neutral to favourable view on trustworthyness.

On income tax:

Raise Income tax to improve public services:

Support: 52

Don't support: 37

Raise income tax to increase benefits and tax credits:

Support: 30

Don't support: 57

Cut the income tax by slashing funding in public services:

Support: 13

Don't support: 74

Cut the income tax by slashing benefits/tax credits:

Support: 27

Don't support: 60

Hardly neutral questions!

I wonder if there would have been a similar response if the questions were worded as:

Significantly raise Income tax to improve public services: or Reduce your income to improve public services:

Significantly raise income tax to increase benefits and tax credits:

Slash income tax by reducing waste in public services:

Slash income tax by targetted cuts to benefits/tax credits:

[Colkitto]

Magnus must be lying in a dark room. He put so much effort into the smearing of the SNP with the Michelle Thomson allegations and nothing worked.

[renton]

Hardly neutral questions!

I wonder if there would have been a similar response if the questions were worded as:

Significantly raise Income tax to improve public services: or Reduce your income to improve public services:

Significantly raise income tax to increase benefits and tax credits:

Slash income tax by reducing waste in public services:

Slash income tax by targetted cuts to benefits/tax credits:

Well, wording is certain to change the responses, but then the clear margins between the two positions would probably mean you'd still see broadly the same trend.

Of course, these are hypothetical questions that people can answer with relative ease, I bet you that you would see different results if actual concrete policies were put to people, and tha'ts reflected in the benefits/tax credits questions: Scots see themselves as more egalitarian/left wing so are happy to raise taxes for public services, but that munificence doesn't extend to benefits, where the media repsonse and the UK government policies has demonized them so much that folk here now don't want to see them raised, yet wouldn't countenance (on paper at least) a cut in them alongside an income tax cut (as that is so recognisably right wing)... so do Scots then think benefits are broadly in the right place, in terms of levels and targetting? I doubt it.

[renton]

Magnus must be lying in a dark room. He put so much effort into the smearing of the SNP with the Michelle Thomson allegations and nothing worked.

well, the SNP is largely untouched, but it's not great reading for Thomson, who is condemned before being found guilty of anything, including from a lot of her own party's supporters.

[Colkitto]

well, the SNP is largely untouched, but it's not great reading for Thomson, who is condemned before being found guilty of anything, including from a lot of her own party's supporters.

Haven't heard a lot of negative comments from SNP supporters, but dismayed at some comments from journos who should know better!

The Unionists threw everything at the SNP with the Thomson/NHS/Police Scotland smears. They must be wondering what else they can do?

[AUFC90]

Haven't heard a lot of negative comments from SNP supporters, but dismayed at some comments from journos who should know better!

The Unionists threw everything at the SNP with the Thomson/NHS/Police Scotland smears. They must be wondering what else they can do?

They chucked shit at the non stick SNP wall at the last election. You'd think they would learn.

[MarkoRaj]

I should've put this all in one post:

Anyway, trust/do not trust:

Labour: 25/67

Tories: 21/71

LDs: 17/73

SNP: 45/50

The SNP there, the only party with anything like a neutral to favourable view on trustworthyness.

On income tax:

Raise Income tax to improve public services:

Support: 52

Don't support: 37

Raise income tax to increase benefits and tax credits:

Support: 30

Don't support: 57

Cut the income tax by slashing funding in public services:

Support: 13

Don't support: 74

Cut the income tax by slashing benefits/tax credits:

Support: 27

Don't support: 60

Mixed bag of results there, particularly the bit where Scots seem to differentiate between the NHS and the welfare state as public services. On paper at least they seem happy to raise the income tax to protect services, like NHS Scotland and are at least unwilling to support any further slashing of benefits even if it meant reducing income tax - though they would be unwilling to support a tax rise if they thought it were going to bolster the tax credits system.

Finally, the media assault on Michelle Thomson seems to have gained traction with the YG panel suggesting that 67% are in favour of her resigning as an MP vs 17% who say she shouldn't and 23% who don't know.

it's not looking good for Carmichael either though, as the court of public opinion suggests by almost the same margins as thomson that he should go.

The eerie similarity between the numbers on those last two would suggest a lack of partisan breakdown by party, and would point towards a general lack of patience with regards to any kind of percieved bad behaviour by an MP, regardless of circumstance.

That really made great reading. So much for this idea that SNP fan boys don't want to listen to criticism etc. Clearly if someone has done something they disagree with, it doesn't matter whether they are SNP or not, they should still face the consequences

[renton]

Haven't heard a lot of negative comments from SNP supporters, but dismayed at some comments from journos who should know better!

The Unionists threw everything at the SNP with the Thomson/NHS/Police Scotland smears. They must be wondering what else they can do?

I meant purely in terms of the polling, to have 67% wanting her to go, given the party weightings and headline voting intentions, there are a lot of SNP voters who apparently want her gone, going on that poll.

It's not a huge surprise as the guys at UK poling report once did a study that showed at any given point, a politician probably had 30% of voters who wanted them gone.

Given the lack of patience for MPs these days as well, even the slightest whiff of acting outside a very narrow sense of proprietry is bound to get the electorate's hackles up. If she lives through this now, in 4 years time, no one wil lcare - it's the living through this now bit that looks tricky for her.

[strichener]

Well, wording is certain to change the responses, but then the clear margins between the two positions would probably mean you'd still see broadly the same trend.

Of course, these are hypothetical questions that people can answer with relative ease, I bet you that you would see different results if actual concrete policies were put to people, and tha'ts reflected in the benefits/tax credits questions: Scots see themselves as more egalitarian/left wing so are happy to raise taxes for public services, but that munificence doesn't extend to benefits, where the media repsonse and the UK government policies has demonized them so much that folk here now don't want to see them raised, yet wouldn't countenance (on paper at least) a cut in them alongside an income tax cut (as that is so recognisably right wing)... so do Scots then think benefits are broadly in the right place, in terms of levels and targetting? I doubt it.

It's surprising how many people actually receive "benefits" but fail to realise it (WTC, Child Benefit etc.). I am sure a great many people are in favour of benefit cuts, so long as it isn't their own.

[Colkitto]

They chucked shit at the non stick SNP wall at the last election. You'd think they would learn.

I think that's all they have left in all honesty.

[Colkitto]

I meant purely in terms of the polling, to have 67% wanting her to go, given the party weightings and headline voting intentions, there are a lot of SNP voters who apparently want her gone, going on that poll.

It's not a huge surprise as the guys at UK poling report once did a study that showed at any given point, a politician probably had 30% of voters who wanted them gone.

Given the lack of patience for MPs these days as well, even the slightest whiff of acting outside a very narrow sense of proprietry is bound to get the electorate's hackles up. If she lives through this now, in 4 years time, no one wil lcare - it's the living through this now bit that looks tricky for her.

It will come down what it always was going to come down to and that's the Police. If they charge her she's gone from the SNP never to return. If guilty, then her Westminster career is over.

If she is not charged then this whole episode will be quickly forgotten by the public

[I'm Brian]

I was polled for this, and IIRC the MP questions were pretty leading. Can't remember the exact wording though.

I was don't know to both the Thompson and Carmichael questions

[renton]

It's surprising how many people actually receive "benefits" but fail to realise it (WTC, Child Benefit etc.). I am sure a great many people are in favour of benefit cuts, so long as it isn't their own.

Absolutely, and if an income tax rise was targetted at child benefit I could see that being reasonably popular.