Jim McLean's Ghost Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 I reckon the No demographic probably didn't get picked up as much by pollsters as easily as the Yes demographic. Can you do a telephone poll for people in an old folk's home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 So when I say yes is on 25-30% at the start, I mean the start of the referendum proper, after October 2012 when pollsters began using some semblance of the actual question, although not even then the actual question (that practice didn't take hold until well into 2013 Again, how convenient. A point in 2012 prior to the actual question that was to be used in the referendum was known, but conveniently after June 2012, which produced a number you didn't like much. Surely, logically, if you wish to compare results against the final referendum you should only use polls which actually asked the same question as was used in September 2014? Alternatively, given that you looked at Yes's starting point - Yes Scotland launched on 25th May 2012. What about taking polls starting from then? IPSOS-MORI - 14/6/12 - Yes (including DKs) was 35% Panelbase - 27/7/12 - Yes (inc DKs) was 36%. Again though, you don't like those as they prove your narrative is wrong. It only works if you completely ignore polls from earlier in 2012, pick a point you quite like arbitrarily, cherrypick a couple of pollsters (ignore Panelbase for example), pretend you can take a figure that includes DKs and compare it to a final point that excludes DKs, and pretend that Yes' starting point is the arbitrary point in time you have decided (that isn't it's actual start point, or the most recent polls after its start point). Nonsense. As I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl. Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 I reckon the No demographic probably didn't get picked up as much by pollsters as easily as the Yes demographic.I'd imagine it must be difficult to conduct a phone poll:"Hi, we'd like to ask you a question abou..." "This phone call is just dripping with fail! Why you havent answered a single thing here! You are of course, wrong." "Oh-kay, we're actually calling about voting for the refere..." "See, dripping with fail! You are being marmalised by me in this phone call. Your work colleagues must be laughing at you and your penis is tiny." "No really, its abou..." "Look at you stammer! You can't defend your point, we all know who is the loser here. " ::slams down phone:: Probably accounted for a good 2% of the No voters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Again, how convenient. A point in 2012 prior to the actual question that was to be used in the referendum was known, but conveniently after June 2012, which produced a number you didn't like much. Surely, logically, if you wish to compare results against the final referendum you should only use polls which actually asked the same question as was used in September 2014? Alternatively, given that you looked at Yes's starting point - Yes Scotland launched on 25th May 2012. What about taking polls starting from then? IPSOS-MORI - 14/6/12 - Yes (including DKs) was 35% Panelbase - 27/7/12 - Yes (inc DKs) was 36%. Again though, you don't like those as they prove your narrative is wrong. It only works if you completely ignore polls from earlier in 2012, pick a point you quite like arbitrarily, cherrypick a couple of pollsters (ignore Panelbase for example), pretend you can take a figure that includes DKs and compare it to a final point that excludes DKs, and pretend that Yes' starting point is the arbitrary point in time you have decided (that isn't it's actual start point, or the most recent polls after its start point). Nonsense. As I said. What are you talking about, I said that any polling prior to the question defined, if I recall by the Edinburgh agreement in October is bunk. If it was after the agreement that the question was defined then polling in the time between those two points is bunk. I do not cherry pick pollsters, in fact I make specific reference to Panelbase several fucking times as the one that didn't show the big narrowing - worth noting that within MOE they are still in a 10-30 point range. my entire narrative is to ignore false averages between pollsters and to construct a picture based on what they were ALL doing in terms of regular polling with the right question. Even within that you have difficulty reconciling the chopped and changed weightings each pollster used, which could have different effects on the numbers: The Keller correction certainly had that effect - masking the more gradual changes other pollsters were seeing before over estimating the change when a few of that Lab10/SNP11 subsample started to move. Within all of that, looking at all the BPC pollsters and once the question was known we comeback to that fucking graph I put up the other day from January 2013 through to September 14, which showed - unsurprisingly a 10 to 30 point spread across pollsters. I'm not trying to talk this up, I'm not trying to skew the argument to fit my prejudice, I'm not saying PB was definitely correct and I'm not saying YG was definitely correct, I think the picture shows a definite double figure increase in respondents saying Yes over the course of the referendum, replicated by all pollsters using the preferred question, in the right sequence subject to the different panel weightings and poll formats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl. Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Look, all the "facts", and "evidence" and so called "reality" are not going to change the fact that you are wrong about whatever it is you are wrong about. Its just a fact that support for Yes dropped throughout the campaign, as HB said, and to argue otherwise is the moronic not very intelligent act of a marmalised nat clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 What are you talking about, I said that any polling prior to the question defined, if I recall by the Edinburgh agreement in October is bunk. The question wasn't defined by the Edinburgh agreement! The question the SNP wanted to ask was laughed at by the Electoral Commission. It wasn't until 2013 that the question was defined. The SNP first stated that they wanted the "do you agree..." phrasing to be used in January 2012. It was put forward for testing by the EC in November 2012 and rejected by them at the end of January 2013. The SNP then said "yeah, ok, it was a ncie try, but the game's up " with their hoped for question and agreed to use the revised wording. . I'm not trying to talk this up, I'm not trying to skew the argument to fit my prejudice, I'm not saying PB was definitely correct and I'm not saying YG was definitely correct, I think the picture shows a definite double figure increase in respondents saying Yes over the course of the referendum, replicated by all pollsters using the preferred question, in the right sequence subject to the different panel weightings and poll formats. I see nowhere in this rant have you actually referenced your original claim. There is no doubt that pre-referendum the Yes vote went up, starting around 25-30% and ending up on 45%. This was utter rubbish, as I've proved. If you go with the actual start of the Yes campaign, when Yes Scotland was formed in May 2012, the polls immediately after that, in June 2012, had Yes at mid 30s, and that's excluding Don't Knows! Yes didn't actually gain that much between the start of the campaign and the end of it. There was an increase, but as I've proven it was pretty minimal. Polling throughout 2012 shows Yes averaging in the late 30s or early 40s excluding DKs. If you want to pick only those polls using after the actual wording of the referendum question was confirmed, and the real wording was used for the polls, they must be after 30/1/13. IPSOS-MORI 9/2/13 - 34% (excluding DKs! which were 11%) TNS-BMRB 28/2/13 - 33% (excluding DKs which were 15%) Panelbase 22/3/13 - 36% (with a huge 18% DKs) In short, you are wrong. Why you can't accept that, in the face of all the evidence, I have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl. Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Mewl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 as I've proved. I've proven :lol: I'll repost this graph: Please note that it goes back to January 2013 when you yourself state the question started being used, so that polling is more accurate. Please note the source - UK polling report, generally held to be a reputable site. Observe the trends and numbers, note that nothing there contradicts anything I've said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 You still at it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl. Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 You still at it? Im surprised you havent jumped in to defend your fellow unionist and agree with him that indeed, support for Yes fell during the campaign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 :lol: I'll repost this graph: Please note that it goes back to January 2013 when you yourself state the question started being used, so that polling is more accurate. Please note the source - UK polling report, generally held to be a reputable site. Observe the trends and numbers, note that nothing there contradicts anything I've said. Maybe you need to get rid of all the zig zag lines and replace them with one, merged, totally straight, diagonal line. Then maybe he'll realise how much of a rip roaring c**t he's made of himself here. I suspect he'll just continue to wallow in his own delusion though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Im surprised you havent jumped in to defend your fellow unionist and agree with him that indeed, support for Yes fell during the campaign. Fellow Unionist? You don't have fekking scooby. Ask your other fellow travellers. I'll even post the picture of my ballot paper again. It's really easy to bracket folk who disagree with you into nice little pigeonholes - unfortunately not everyone fits nicely into your Unionist/Nationalist definitions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl. Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Fellow Unionist? You don't have fekking scooby. Ask your other fellow travellers. I'll even post the picture of my ballot paper again. It's really easy to bracket folk who disagree with you into nice little pigeonholes - unfortunately not everyone fits nicely into your Unionist/Nationalist definitions. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, as far as Im concerned, its a duck. If you dont want to be considered a duck, you might want to work on your quacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 Im surprised you havent jumped in to defend your fellow unionist and agree with him that indeed, support for Yes fell during the campaign.still to see you criticise someone you think may have voted yes in September tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl. Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 still to see you criticise someone you think may have voted yes in September tbh. This is a common claim made of independence supporters. But to think of some examples in the week or so ive been back, I criticised Oaksoft's Mhari Black posts, and defended kevthedee. Oh, ans I disagreed with a former SNP member over all women shortlists. Meanwhile on the unionist side...well lets just say self criticism is not their thing. Just like violence and threats (plenty of examples posted), that attitude comes right from the top, which is why we basically have a combined unionist party up here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 This is a common claim made of independence supporters. But to think of some examples in the week or so ive been back, I criticised Oaksoft's Mhari Black posts, and defended kevthedee. Oh, ans I disagreed with a former SNP member over all women shortlists. Meanwhile on the unionist side...well lets just say self criticism is not their thing. Just like violence and threats (plenty of examples posted), that attitude comes right from the top, which is why we basically have a combined unionist party up here now. we have a combined unionist party if you support independence and you think everyone elses primary goal is to stop independence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl. Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 we have a combined unionist party if you support independence and you think everyone elses primary goal is to stop independence. Seems like it is. As far as I can see, the unionist parties have only 1 policy, SNPbaaaaddd! We also have the continuing shadow existence of project fear, when the unionist parties combined, and really, are still on the same side. They as well just merge. Incidentally, i gave several examples in a single week or so of me disagreeing with yes voters. Meanwhile, the unionist side continues to be in lockstep. Look at this thread for the perfect example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 25, 2015 Share Posted July 25, 2015 H_B having a nightmare here His problems start with a misunderstanding of what "DKs excluded" means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted July 27, 2015 Author Share Posted July 27, 2015 still to see you criticise someone you think may have voted yes in September tbh. Why would you criticise someone who is inherently correct? Strange lad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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