Independence & the current Tory Government

[xbl.]

Actually no. I recall Unionists posting with glee about 25% figures. But there's no point in discussing it with a constant victim of terrible amnesia.

No you dont. You've just made that up.

Clear statement there. No ambiguity whatsoever.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jan/24/scots-cold-feet-independence

"First off, the headline: just 23% now say that "Scotland should become separate, independent from the rest of the UK""

Literally never happened, right?

Here is an example of the headline.

Ho hum.

Ah, I've worked out why you are telling your usual lies, the thread from back then has been deleted. We of course know the truth.

Here is where I've done the research and found out that while those headlines exist, the thread has of course been deleted, meaning that no evidence exists. But given the headlines, and the Unionist behaviour, plus our memory, its entirely reasonable to assume such claims exist...

The old claim the thread has been deleted line was my second guess.

This very clearly and simply states that the thread has not been deleted. Now I was charitible, I gave him many, many opportunities to state clearly whether the thread was deleted or not. As we've seen, he squirmed and deflected. But no doubting from his earlier post. He is claiming the thread was not deleted. Given his refusal to answer, we can only go by his posts.

So, using the date of the headline above:

http://www.pieandbovril.com/forum/index.php/topic/198881-independence-how-would-you-vote/

Page 1 of this thread.

So, now we have the reason for HB's evasiveness. Wonder why he couldn't answer a simple question? Wonder no more. Its because he's a liar!

[H_B]

Oh dear oh dear oh dear.

Lets compare and contrast.

`First you said there were no headlines of 23%`

Evidence please?

`Actually no. I recall unionists posting with glee about 25% figures`

[renton]

That's a compilation of all polls from February 14 - if you had to take a median of that, then yes is about an 15 point swing down in February as opposed to a median of three down in September (and an actual final result of 5 down).

This is a better one going back to January '13, split by pollster that shows the progress of Yes. The most friendly in terms of base numbers - but least Yes friendly in terms of swing through campaign is Panelbase which gives a 10 point swing. YG, at the other end of that scale shows roughly a 30 point swing (when taking the final result into comparison). There appears to be two 'narrowing events' - one through the winter of 13/14 and one through the summer of 14.

Thus you can see that the rise in Yes support with any pollster is no less than 10 points and as high as 30 points. An average poll of polls only gives a false average given the disparity in polling results, but comparing like for like gives a picture of double figure advances across the board. I wasn't over stating my case, and the swing was not modest or in single figures.

In the ten months since then, the polling figures have remained relatively constant, despite a very public collapse in oil prices (which surely should have dented the nationalist cause). Indeed, based on recent polls weighted by recalled referendum result, there has been a modest uptick in the polls to 47/48% for yes. The university of Edinburgh study showed how the No vote was concentrated in a few narrow demographics, whereas the Yes vote showed a broad but shallow lead in working age demographics, despite everything, despite the ultimate failure to pass the motion in front of the people, the first referendum has laid a pretty decent foundation for those who'd see Scotland independent.

[H_B]

Where have I claimed any thread hasnt been deleted?

[H_B]

Here is where I've done the research and found out that while those headlines exist, the thread has of course been deleted, meaning that no evidence exists. But given the headlines, and the Unionist behaviour, plus our memory, its entirely reasonable to assume sl!

And here we have the mewling climbdown.

Thank you. I accept your apology

[H_B]

That's a compilation of all polls from February 14 - if you had to take a median of that, then yes is about an 15 point swing down in February as opposed to a median of three down in September (and an actual final result of 5 down).

This is a better one going back to January '13, split by pollster that shows the progress of Yes. The most friendly in terms of base numbers - but least Yes friendly in terms of swing through campaign is Panelbase which gives a 10 point swing. YG, at the other end of that scale shows roughly a 30 point swing (when taking the final result into comparison). There appears to be two 'narrowing events' - one through the winter of 13/14 and one through the summer of 14.

Thus you can see that the rise in Yes support with any pollster is no less than 10 points and as high as 30 points. An average poll of polls only gives a false average given the disparity in polling results, but comparing like for like gives a picture of double figure advances across the board. I wasn't over stating my case, and the swing was not modest or in single figures.

In the ten months since then, the polling figures have remained relatively constant, despite a very public collapse in oil prices (which surely should have dented the nationalist cause). Indeed, based on recent polls weighted by recalled referendum result, there has been a modest uptick in the polls to 47/48% for yes. The university of Edinburgh study showed how the No vote was concentrated in a few narrow demographics, whereas the Yes vote showed a broad but shallow lead in working age demographics, despite everything, despite the ultimate failure to pass the motion in front of the people, the first referendum has laid a pretty decent foundation for those who'd see Scotland independent.

I see you are now onto swing.

You started by claiming Yes had gone from 20 to 25 % up to 45. Which was nonsense. You got a bit carried away.

In reality they have gone from the mid 30s to the mid 40s. As I showed. Still an increase and theres no doubt the Yes campaign has increased the Indy base significantly but not by the amount you originally claimed.

[H_B]

Also I see you dont like an average poll of polls. You seemed to quite like that before the referendum.

What was the average Yes percentage in 2012 excluding Dont Knows?

[renton]

I see you are now onto swing.

You started by claiming Yes had gone from 20 to 25 % up to 45. Which was nonsense. You got a bit carried away.

In reality they have gone from the mid 30s to the mid 40s. As I showed. Still an increase and theres no doubt the Yes campaign has increased the Indy base significantly but not by the amount you originally claimed.

It wasn't nonsense, Curtice' SSAS had it as low as 23-25% in 2012 and up at 43% in 2014, as late as January 2013, YG had it down at 29% including dks. I originally claimed 15-20% which is pretty bang on given the patterns of swing exhibited by the graphs above.

[Fide]

H_B

[Dipped Flake]

oh H_B, you don't half cheer me up in the mornings. Had you on ignore for months but I still get to see your lunatic ramblings through the joy of quote so thank you posters

[Guest]

I've missed the H_B / xbl ding dongs.

It's a crime one or both were missing during the referendum and then the GE.

Did H_B ever explain why he took a break from the Politics forum in the run up to the General Election? Just curious like.

[xbl.]

I've missed the H_B / xbl ding dongs.

In fairness, Renton has been dealing with him for weeks (probably longer?) With solid fact based smackdowns. He's played the batman role, plunging his hands into the filth so you can keep yours clean. The boy deserves props for being the only one patient enough to humour HB!

[ayrmad]

Did H_B ever explain why he took a break from the Politics forum in the run up to the General Election? Just curious like.

I would think it was down to his previous assertions proving to be totally and utterly pants, his fragile ego can't stand humiliation.

[Kyle]

I've missed the H_B / xbl ding dongs.

It's a crime one or both were missing during the referendum and then the GE.

Did H_B ever explain why he took a break from the Politics forum in the run up to the General Election? Just curious like.

He's the politics forum's answer to an old firm supporter - can't take being on the losing side.

[Elixir]

He's the politics forum's answer to an old firm supporter - can't take being on the losing side.

A bit like why he claims to be an SNP voter.

Which fools absolutely nobody.

[Ira Gaines]

xbl vs HB again. Can we not just close this sub forum now? And while you're at it, ban the terrorist sympathising scumbag again?

[H_B]

It wasn't nonsense, Curtice' SSAS had it as low as 23-25% in 2012 and up at 43% in 2014, as late as January 2013, YG had it down at 29% including dks. I originally claimed 15-20% which is pretty bang on given the patterns of swing exhibited by the graphs above.

It was nonsense.

You claimed the Yes vote 'started on around 20-25% and went up to 45%'

This is rubbish. As I proved.

Using the exact same logic of handpicking a couple of pollsters I could say the No vote started on 42-44 % in three separate polls back in 2012 and leapt a massive double digits in two years up to 55 +%. At the same time support for Yes increased just single digits from 2012 to 2014. From 35-37% in these polls up to only 44 and a bit.

Fair assessment I'm sure you'll agree?

Why do you think No increased its vote by more than Yes between 2012 and 2014?

[renton]

It was nonsense.

You claimed the Yes vote 'started on around 20-25% and went up to 45%'

This is rubbish. As I proved.

Using the exact same logic of handpicking a couple of pollsters I could say the No vote started on 42-44 % in three separate polls back in 2012 and leapt a massive double digits in two years up to 55 +%. At the same time support for Yes increased just single digits from 2012 to 2014. From 35-37% in these polls up to only 44 and a bit.

Fair assessment I'm sure you'll agree?

Why do you think No increased its vote by more than Yes between 2012 and 2014?

There is a difference between one rogue poll and the clear trend I demonstrated above. I didn't hand pick any thing, I showed a trend of every major BPC pollster showing that even the most yes friendly showed a 10 point increase over an 18 month period, while others topped out at nearly 30. You can argue about polling methodologies and changing questions, but it seems clear from the graphs posted that a median increase in 15% was seen which is in the range I stated above. Other than that you also have the Curtis SSAS which asks a consistent three choice question, not ideal for our purposes but as it stayed consistent it can be used as a bell weather which saw an increase of 18 odd points from 2012 to 2014 in yes voting intentions, which seems to correlate roughly to the BPC trends.

So, not single figure increases, even on primarily yes friendly pollsters, a clear trend as established above. I stated a yes vote increase in the range 15-20 points. I think the above illustrates that well enough.

[H_B]

You absolutely did handpick a poll to support your nonsense claim that Yes 'started out at 20-25%'.

You've admitted so yourself.

Perhaps it would be useful if you could list the starting position of Yes with all of these BPC posters please.

[renton]

As to who proved what, I've provided two different collated graphs, one showing swing, one showing raw numbers. They come from six different polling companies - anyone wishing to independently verify those numbers can easily do so. It's also easy enough to find Curtice's SSAS numbers. Your argument seems to be your own assertion allied to your usual impregnable ignorance to others arguments and the idea that you and only you are right. I'm happy to leave it to the collective wisdom of the forum as to who proved their point. I suspect you will think your right regardless.