When will indyref2 happen?

[NotThePars]

You cannot claim with any certainty how powerful that message was to No voters, in the same way that I cannot claim that No voters knew the risks, given that the EU vote was an existing Government pledge before we went to the polls in Sept 2014.

And the only way to really see how powerful that message was is to hold another referendum. Which Sturgeon will do when the stark reality of Brexit is apparent to people.

[Shades75]

30 minutes ago, RedRob72 said:

 

You cannot claim with any certainty how powerful that message was to No voters, in the same way that I cannot claim that No voters knew the risks, given that the EU vote was an existing Government pledge before we went to the polls in Sept 2014.

 

I think we can make some guesses as to how important that message was.  It was clearly seen as very important to the No campaign who used it as a threat, repeatedly, Ruth Davidson being particularly fond of it.

The referendum was pledged by a government that had to win a general election to implement it and didn't look, at that time, as if they'd hold a majority or even win.

I don't think we should fall into a habit of writing central arguments off because we can't know just how important it is to the final result.  That is what the brexit have tried to do with the £350m bus slogans and immigration posters.  Those were very visually important and it's rewriting history to deny an impact.

The Yes campaign, for me, lost the currency argument and the oil figures were optimistic, at best, which impacted the economic argument badly.   For me, that's been proven by events since.

I think it's also been proven that BT were wrong on the EU issue. The simple fact is that they said that to vote No was to protect Scotland's place in the EU. No ifs, buts or maybes.  That's since been proven to be wrong.

[RedRob72]

I think we can make some guesses as to how important that message was.  It was clearly seen as very important to the No campaign who used it as a threat, repeatedly, Ruth Davidson being particularly fond of it.
The referendum was pledged by a government that had to win a general election to implement it and didn't look, at that time, as if they'd hold a majority or even win.
I don't think we should fall into a habit of writing central arguments off because we can't know just how important it is to the final result.  That is what the brexit have tried to do with the £350m bus slogans and immigration posters.  Those were very visually important and it's rewriting history to deny an impact.
The Yes campaign, for me, lost the currency argument and the oil figures were optimistic, at best, which impacted the economic argument badly.   For me, that's been proven by events since.
I think it's also been proven that BT were wrong on the EU issue. The simple fact is that they said that to vote No was to protect Scotland's place in the EU. No ifs, buts or maybes.  That's since been proven to be wrong.

Agree with most of that Shades, posted with your usual, refreshing, fair and rational logic.
Brexit was indeed an unexpected turn of events for most Unionists, as the majority of us also didn't buy the EU/NHS/Immigration line perpetuated by the leave campaign that you mention.

I still don't believe it changes our stance on Scottish independence however, I'll concede with other posters that the only way to test this is to hold another Ref further down the line once this mess is sorted. Then yes bring it on!!

[Peppino Impastato]

Afraid not wes it will be held before brexit. 

[Peppino Impastato]

THE political will exists to give Nicola Sturgeon more than two years to make Scotland independent, enabling the nation to remain in the EU as a sovereign state when the UK leaves, according to an influential Brussels politician.

 

Philippe Lamberts, the co-chairman of the European Green Party/European Free Alliance, said he saw no obstacle to an independent Scotland joining the EU, and that the 24-month timetable between Article 50 being triggered and the UK leaving could be extended, allowing the First Minister more time to achieve her ambition.

 

Lamberts, who was the MEP responsible for an EU cap on bankers’ bonuses, said that the EU’s remaining 27 leaders would also be happy to agree to an independent Scotland’s membership of the bloc as a way of dealing a blow to the UK Government. There will be a break-up with the UK and the 27 will not be happy about that. So I think they will be all to happy to recognise Scotland if only to thumb their nose at the UK Government,” he said.

 

The First Minister has ruled out an independence referendum this year but has said she is “not bluffing” about holding a vote in the likely event of a hard Brexit.

 

However, with Theresa May due to trigger Article 50 by the end of March, there is concern time might run out before Sturgeon is confident of holding a vote she can win and completing the constitutional framework to create a new independent state by spring 2019.

 

Recent polls put support for independence at around 45 per cent, the same as in September 2014 when the Yes side lost.

 

Lamberts, a Belgian MEP, said the individual heads of state who make up the European Council could prolong the two-year period of exiting negotiations. He said there was political will to extend the spring 2019 deadline for exiting and to accommodate any constitutional changes taking place in the UK.

 

“Paragraph 3 of Article 50 says that the treaty ceases to be applicable to states that leave from two years after the date it is invoked unless the European Council decide to prolong that process. It all comes down to political will and there is very strong political goodwill towards Scotland among Euro- pean politicians,” he said. “I am certain that goodwill towards Scotland will continue over the longer term.”

 

Lamberts saw no obstacle to an independent Scotland being a member of the EU. “Tell me why there should be a problem? Right now Scotland is part of a full member of the European Union, which means it applies all of the EU legislation and fulfils the conditions,” he said.

 

“Why should an independent Scotland not fulfil the conditions? To me it is quite obvious that if a new situation is created to change the constitutional order of the United Kingdom, Europe would not stand in the way of an independent Scotland being in the European Union.

 

“I believe it would inherit the UK’s membership. Primarily that is a political decision. If there is a political will, and I think it will be there, lawyers will find a way to make it legally happen.”

 

 

[hehawhehaw]

2 hours ago, Peppino Impastato said:

THE political will exists to give Nicola Sturgeon more than two years to make Scotland independent, enabling the nation to remain in the EU as a sovereign state when the UK leaves, according to an influential Brussels politician.

 

Philippe Lamberts, the co-chairman of the European Green Party/European Free Alliance, said he saw no obstacle to an independent Scotland joining the EU, and that the 24-month timetable between Article 50 being triggered and the UK leaving could be extended, allowing the First Minister more time to achieve her ambition.

 

Lamberts, who was the MEP responsible for an EU cap on bankers’ bonuses, said that the EU’s remaining 27 leaders would also be happy to agree to an independent Scotland’s membership of the bloc as a way of dealing a blow to the UK Government. There will be a break-up with the UK and the 27 will not be happy about that. So I think they will be all to happy to recognise Scotland if only to thumb their nose at the UK Government,” he said.

 

The First Minister has ruled out an independence referendum this year but has said she is “not bluffing” about holding a vote in the likely event of a hard Brexit.

 

However, with Theresa May due to trigger Article 50 by the end of March, there is concern time might run out before Sturgeon is confident of holding a vote she can win and completing the constitutional framework to create a new independent state by spring 2019.

 

Recent polls put support for independence at around 45 per cent, the same as in September 2014 when the Yes side lost.

 

Lamberts, a Belgian MEP, said the individual heads of state who make up the European Council could prolong the two-year period of exiting negotiations. He said there was political will to extend the spring 2019 deadline for exiting and to accommodate any constitutional changes taking place in the UK.

 

“Paragraph 3 of Article 50 says that the treaty ceases to be applicable to states that leave from two years after the date it is invoked unless the European Council decide to prolong that process. It all comes down to political will and there is very strong political goodwill towards Scotland among Euro- pean politicians,” he said. “I am certain that goodwill towards Scotland will continue over the longer term.”

 

Lamberts saw no obstacle to an independent Scotland being a member of the EU. “Tell me why there should be a problem? Right now Scotland is part of a full member of the European Union, which means it applies all of the EU legislation and fulfils the conditions,” he said.

 

“Why should an independent Scotland not fulfil the conditions? To me it is quite obvious that if a new situation is created to change the constitutional order of the United Kingdom, Europe would not stand in the way of an independent Scotland being in the European Union.

 

“I believe it would inherit the UK’s membership. Primarily that is a political decision. If there is a political will, and I think it will be there, lawyers will find a way to make it legally happen.”

 

 

shouldn't the scottish electorate have a say ya dumb b*****d

[DublinMagyar]

shouldn't the scottish electorate have a say?

NOW you're getting it!

Enjoy the journey[emoji6]

[hehawhehaw]

6 minutes ago, DublinMagyar said:

NOW you're getting it!

Enjoy the journey

a no the answer we'll get ya stumer

[RedRob72]

2,4 or 6 years, the answer will still No Pep, reckon you're in for a long wait, just gonna have to sit it out in the meantime pal.

[git-intae-thum]

31 minutes ago, RedRob72 said:

2,4 or 6 years, the answer will still No Pep, reckon you're in for a long wait, just gonna have to sit it out in the meantime pal.

Some how, next time, I think not.

Its probably a patience game for indy supporters. The more time that passes, unfortunately the more uncertainty and economic strife will emerge from the whole brexit shambles. If there is a reasonable alternative, then most Scots will go for that.

But in their hearts most sensible unionists must know this.

[RedRob72]

Some how, next time, I think not.
Its probably a patience game for indy supporters. The more time that passes, unfortunately the more uncertainty and economic strife will emerge from the whole brexit shambles. If there is a reasonable alternative, then most Scots will go for that.
But in their hearts most sensible unionists must know this.

You don't understand the Unionist resolve then mate, not many on here do! They just take the piss, We're fine with that!

[1320Lichtie]

You don't understand the Unionist resolve then mate, not many on here do! They just take the piss, We're fine with that!

Jesus Christ Rob

You're absolutely desperate here, it's embarassing reading these kind of posts, state of you

[git-intae-thum]

37 minutes ago, RedRob72 said:

You don't understand the Unionist resolve then mate, not many on here do! They just take the piss, We're fine with that!

 

Jesus. It dont take much for the mask to slip eh.

[RedRob72]

 

Jesus. It dont take much for the mask to slip eh.

There's no mask pal, I don't hide anything! 'I'm as honest as the day is long, the lesser the daylight, the less I do wrong' !![emoji6]

[RedRob72]

Jesus Christ Rob

You're absolutely desperate here, it's embarassing reading these kind of posts, state of you

The rule of animals 'destroy what you don't understand'!!
It will always stick with you Lichtie, but one day you'll wake up and realise that you've never actually thought for yourself!

[git-intae-thum]

31 minutes ago, RedRob72 said:

There's no mask pal, I don't hide anything! 'I'm as honest as the day is long, the lesser the daylight, the less I do wrong' !!

No compromise eh. Union till the end an aw that.

[mjw]

but one day you'll wake up and realise that you've never actually thought for yourself!

Holy f**k.
That's rich coming from the biggest stereotype on this forum.

[RedRob72]

No compromise eh. Union till the end an aw that.

Always room for compromise, Brexit has been a real game changer, but the Union will hold!

[RedRob72]

Holy f**k.
That's rich coming from the biggest stereotype on this forum.

Think that's a bit unfair MJW, I'll always try and look at the other side and hopefully try and respond without the predictable insults.

[RedRob72]

Just to add, I reckon as soon as you (and many others on here) see 'our club' Glasgow Rangers on a forum profile, you'll blindly pigeon hole every single aspect of our every being. Pep is without doubt the most intolerant contributor on these pages, f*fk knows why he hasn't got me on ignore! But you continue to humour him!?