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When will indyref2 happen?



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2019 in the event of EU referendum exit but going by current projections, we will vote to remain in the EU. It's hard to predict the future structure of the EU though and opinion does shift fast. It could be an interesting couple of years. If it does happen though, I'm not totally convinced it'll be enough to get the independence argument over the line. It may well pick up a couple of points but the fundamental economic argument is still going to be rather similar. If played badly, it could well kill the movement. If it is the case that a referendum will come this soon, the planning really needs to be in place at this very moment. To win this soon, the argument needs to be emphasised that we can handle the short term fall-out and have a government with hundreds of experts flown in from all over the world and a team ready to execute the plan. Salmond spoke about 'Team Scotland' a lot and to be honest, I think he should have taken the criticism he would have received if he'd started making phone calls and actually putting it in place around the time of the white paper.

I'll go for 2027 under an SNP minority administration propped up by the Greens and ex Labour members who have formed their own group. One of the biggest problems we have is that when we discuss devolving power to the Scottish Parliament, the electorate expect the pace of change to be quite a bit faster than is actually normal. For this reason, I see it being at least 10 years from now where a credible yes campaign can actually say 'Look we've given it a try but it isn't working out'. Another point we have to remember is that the sooner a referendum takes place, the more likely it'll be attacked by the failures of this referendum. On currency, oil forecasts and banking, the 'Yes' message was confused and too open to attack. It will still be an issue at the next campaign but there are much better ways that it could have been managed.

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With the way Westmonster is currently enjoying mooning the Scottish electorate, the demand for #indyref2 will grow. Ultimately, more and more people will finally realise that we can vote whatever the France we want - England with it's 600odd MPs will always call the shots.

Another landslide for the SNP at Holyrood and a few more Greens will make indyref2 a formality.


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Can't see it happening before the next WM election 2020,

and will have other factors such as the unlikely event of the EU Referndum being an exit vote.

Will not be enough impotus for change prior to another GE

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If the road is smooth then I think 2021 will be the next big day.

The SNP/Greens/SSP need to return MP/MSP's in huge numbers and pro independence parties must be in absolute majorities at the relevant parliament.

I've heard some talking about 2018/19, but if that were to happen we better make damned sure the conditions are right for it. Personally it's too soon.

As has been stated in the unlikely event of a UK exit from the EU then that IMO is the only other real way I could see it happening sooner. And that's assuming Scotland voted to remain

The Tories seem to be doing their bit for us with their relentless pursuit of trying to erradicate the vulnerable in society

Edited by I'm Brian
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The date in itself can't be predicted. Indyref2 will simply happen whenever it becomes clear the the majority of the electorate here are likely to vote Yes.

The SNP know that they can't afford to lose again so I expect them to be fairly conservative and wait until the polls are sitting at 60% or so before they pull the trigger.

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Think we're talking at least 10 years after the first one,barring something massive (could even be an eu exit, unlikely though that is)

Realistically, post 2020 Westminster election, we'll be in a position to see where the next one will come from.

Personally I'm in no rush. We are many years away from winning one. Or a few harsh winters.....

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Denial isn't an Egyptian river, Robert.

15 years before another Ref, you're just going to have to live with it mate. Who knows, by then you might have even changed your outlook and decided to remain within this great Union?
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