Roland B Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Undoubtedly, as I believe he works as a geologist analysing surveys? ( I may be completely wrong). His analysis is most probably spot on, I work in the service sector and see the trickle down of the industry. Anyone looking for divers will look favourably at people with NS experience. Anyone looking for Barge masters in difficult seas will look to the NS. The quality of guys coming from Scotland is widely accepted throughout the industry. It's amazing to see how many guys you meet world wide who learned and honed their skills in the North Sea. They are also an export. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Undoubtedly, as I believe he works as a geologist analysing surveys? ( I may be completely wrong). His analysis is most probably spot on, I work in the service sector and see the trickle down of the industry. Anyone looking for divers will look favourably at people with NS experience. Anyone looking for Barge masters in difficult seas will look to the NS. The quality of guys coming from Scotland is widely accepted throughout the industry. It's amazing to see how many guys you meet world wide who learned and honed their skills in the North Sea. They are also an export. I thought you worked in a chip shop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiG Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 If he does then he still has some experience of working with oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milton75 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 A Rangers fan seeking to do down the viability of an independent Scotland? Well I never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 An independent Scotland cannot rely on oil income. This level of investment would need to be repeated every 3 weeks to be expected to maintain current production. We have peaked, oil is over. Ugh Just f**k off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjw Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Ugh Just f**k off. If anyone knows about needing investment every three weeks...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRob72 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 It's always puzzled me how they find enough barrels every day to put it all in, whoever makes em must be earning an absolute mint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgecutter Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 It's always puzzled me how they find enough barrels every day to put it all in, whoever makes em must be earning an absolute mint. This is a joke, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 This is a joke, right? Yes, I think it's Rob's side splitting attempt at humour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgecutter Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 Just that I once had somebody on a course who genuinely thought that supply vessels brought barrels of oil onshore. Not quite as good as those who think that the oil gets sooked out of massive caverns under the ground of course. That's happened a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintZorro Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 Just that I once had somebody on a course who genuinely thought that supply vessels brought barrels of oil onshore.Nugget, did he think that on the return trip they took out lights for all the Christmas trees?We'd a presentation which gave a bit of context to the original announcement. Most of the money is for investment into the ETAP platform to extend its life to 2030, 10 years more than original design, and increase productivity. On a broader note I've not heard much about BPs large west of Shetland projects (Glen Lyon and Clare Ridge) lately, a quick google only found info year old. Both were due to be on stream now. Their success will give a good indication of the potential longevity of oil production. I think the ONS predict levels of production about half current levels in 2030. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roland B Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 It's always puzzled me how they find enough barrels every day to put it all in, whoever makes em must be earning an absolute mint. I actually found this to be quite humerous, as like Hedgecutter, I've been on a rig while the supply boat was delivering lubricating oil and been asked- by a green hand tbf- is that the amount of barrels we need a day to send back?, as a pallet of 8 barrels was lifted onboard. I was on a semi, which makes the statement even more ridiculous.... Just read that back and I'm tempted to add a "Cool story bro" gif myself!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 I was on a semi, You know what they say about sailors. Chortle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 I get the feeling that dorlomin is trying to say ' However, the logic behind his far too simplistic (so called) calculation, You had not problem with the logic of posting one isolated spit in the wind to whip up a feel good factor for an industry everyone acknowledges is in the doledrums. You eyed nationalism. notably assuming that all this investment is simply to maintain current levels rather than BP's actual plan to partly increase present production with investment in new developments, is seriously flawed. Increasing production in the North Sea basin? Most fields are in delcline and all new fields are seriously needed to slow the rate of that decline. Lets have a little look at the world, the world you are not showing these people. Brent now selling at $50 a barrel. WTI is much lower (due to a long running problem of over supply at Cushing OK) Inventories in the states are bursting Iraq and Saudi have brought significant new oil into production. US rigs hires have collapsed but oil production remains steady for now. A look at most commodities indexes shows a similar trend. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BCOM:IND 5 years of declines, the oil price stands out for the sharpness of its drop in the past year compared with some others but the over all trend is similar. Another favourite bell weather of industrial activity, copper has also hit 5 year lows. http://www.thenational.ae/business/economy/copper-prices-slump-to-six-year-lows-amid-yuan-devaluation-and-supply-glut Thermal coal, the staple of the Chinese industrial growth is another in the drink http://af.reuters.com/article/southAfricaNews/idAFL3N10N1W420150812 Oil is currently heavily over supplied and the global economy is swirling round a China sized drain. It may or may not pull out, but there are many long term strucutal issues around the world that have not been addressed since 2008. Perhaps the most startling index I know off is the US velocity of M2. Suggesting underlying deflationary pressures have not been alleviated, expansionary monetary policies have only masked the problem. Where does this leave Scottish oil. We have strong downward pressure on the oil price, IOC (international oil companies or the big publicly listed companies everyone knows) are taking big write downs on reserves Some indications are they are borrowing for share buy backs and dividend payouts. Their exploration figures for the past couple of years have been dreadful. The exploration budgets are getting gutted and costs are being shrunk everywhere. Scottish North Sea is older infrastructure, the fields have been pushed hard, there is very little or more honestly sweetfuckall chance of an increase in production, laving spending for exploration or even really big upgrades. The industry is going into wind down mode in Scotland. Part of this is common to much of the older off shore industry. Prices have become very volatile. On shore oil is generally quicker to pay back investment so you are not left as far out on a limb if you back too high a price, US shale gas is especially quick in paying back for its rig hires, but also pretty expensive outside the sweetest spots in the Bakken and Eagle Ford, but these are regions that are much more responsive to changes in price as shown by the cut backs in rig hires. The most likely prognosis is negative prevailing winds for investment in a region that urgently needs lots of investment to maintain production. So we are faced with much lower prices, most steadily dropping production and much less scope for taxation and royalties to be taken by the state. Hyping up some piss in the bucket of £600 million is selling people a false hood. also highlighting the weakness of the Unionist's 'trump card' from a group who will seemingly never get the 'oil is a bonus' message through their skulls regardless of how many times it's highlighted. You are a grade A clown. I am not a unionist. All this childish shite about which football team I support and "works in a fish and chip shop while I am the worlds leading expert" is dire. Scotland's competitors are either increasing production, likely to begin doing so (Iran), more capable of responding to short term changes and less risky investments (US shale) while the global economy and most especially the global commodities markets are in full blown bear territory over Chinese weakness. All the bile in the world, all the fairy tales and patriotism will not change the fact Scotland needs to start getting used to the oil no longer playing a major part in the economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 Not to worry, we can share the UK resources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkoRaj Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 You had not problem with the logic of posting one isolated spit in the wind to whip up a feel good factor for an industry everyone acknowledges is in the doledrums. You eyed nationalism. Increasing production in the North Sea basin? Most fields are in delcline and all new fields are seriously needed to slow the rate of that decline. Lets have a little look at the world, the world you are not showing these people. Brent now selling at $50 a barrel. WTI is much lower (due to a long running problem of over supply at Cushing OK) Inventories in the states are bursting Iraq and Saudi have brought significant new oil into production. US rigs hires have collapsed but oil production remains steady for now. A look at most commodities indexes shows a similar trend. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BCOM:IND 5 years of declines, the oil price stands out for the sharpness of its drop in the past year compared with some others but the over all trend is similar. Another favourite bell weather of industrial activity, copper has also hit 5 year lows. http://www.thenational.ae/business/economy/copper-prices-slump-to-six-year-lows-amid-yuan-devaluation-and-supply-glut Thermal coal, the staple of the Chinese industrial growth is another in the drink http://af.reuters.com/article/southAfricaNews/idAFL3N10N1W420150812 Oil is currently heavily over supplied and the global economy is swirling round a China sized drain. It may or may not pull out, but there are many long term strucutal issues around the world that have not been addressed since 2008. Perhaps the most startling index I know off is the US velocity of M2. Suggesting underlying deflationary pressures have not been alleviated, expansionary monetary policies have only masked the problem. Where does this leave Scottish oil. We have strong downward pressure on the oil price, IOC (international oil companies or the big publicly listed companies everyone knows) are taking big write downs on reserves Some indications are they are borrowing for share buy backs and dividend payouts. Their exploration figures for the past couple of years have been dreadful. The exploration budgets are getting gutted and costs are being shrunk everywhere. Scottish North Sea is older infrastructure, the fields have been pushed hard, there is very little or more honestly sweetfuckall chance of an increase in production, laving spending for exploration or even really big upgrades. The industry is going into wind down mode in Scotland. Part of this is common to much of the older off shore industry. Prices have become very volatile. On shore oil is generally quicker to pay back investment so you are not left as far out on a limb if you back too high a price, US shale gas is especially quick in paying back for its rig hires, but also pretty expensive outside the sweetest spots in the Bakken and Eagle Ford, but these are regions that are much more responsive to changes in price as shown by the cut backs in rig hires. The most likely prognosis is negative prevailing winds for investment in a region that urgently needs lots of investment to maintain production. So we are faced with much lower prices, most steadily dropping production and much less scope for taxation and royalties to be taken by the state. Hyping up some piss in the bucket of £600 million is selling people a false hood. You are a grade A clown. I am not a unionist. All this childish shite about which football team I support and "works in a fish and chip shop while I am the worlds leading expert" is dire. Scotland's competitors are either increasing production, likely to begin doing so (Iran), more capable of responding to short term changes and less risky investments (US shale) while the global economy and most especially the global commodities markets are in full blown bear territory over Chinese weakness. All the bile in the world, all the fairy tales and patriotism will not change the fact Scotland needs to start getting used to the oil no longer playing a major part in the economy. Patronising pish mate. We all know North Sea oil isn't going to last forever. We're just sick of people running that fact in our faces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 Patronising pish mate. We all know North Sea oil isn't going to last forever. We're just sick of people running that fact in our faces. The oil industry is boom\bust. It is not stable, it never has been. You are going into a big bust with one of the more vulnerable producing regions. Anyone who is not advising you to prepare for some very rough times in that industry is just yanking your chain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 The oil industry is boom\bust. It is not stable, it never has been. You are going into a big bust with one of the more vulnerable producing regions. Anyone who is not advising you to prepare for some very rough times in that industry is just yanking your chain. I agree. I look forward to receiving my £1400 union dividend to compensate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgecutter Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 Dorlomin, what I was referring to is what SaintZorro came on to say: Most of the money is for investment into the ETAP platform to extend its life to 2030, 10 years more than original design, and increase productivity. What I was referring to was how there will be an increase in production on BP's assets (the ETAP ones involved in this whole story). It is possible to go from (say, for the simplest example) 2 barrels p/d, down to 1 through natural depletion and then up to 3 with the introduction of new infrastructure. I was not saying that this will increase UK-wide production from it's present level in X years time when BP's new ETAP production kit is finally ready to go (whenever that will be). Granted my wording could be interpreted in different ways upon reflection, but others have managed to digest it in the intended, most obvious way. Even in the current economic climate and with any forecast you try and dig out, BP (in their greater wisdom) are investing further and various other operators continue to develop their assets. Of course, they could have simply sold off these 'relatively risky NS' assets and focused on their numerous others elsewhere in the world, except they didn't. Like other companies, both large and small, they choose to continue developing the region, including various finds not yet onstream, some of which SaintZorro happened to highlight. This isn't even touching on new finds and prospects along the now proven Atlantic Margin plays of course. It should also be noted that 'the industry' isn't restricted to operators. Yes, it's them that the government makes the majority of tax from but a sizeable number of workers belong to consultancies / service companies who work on projects sourced from all around the globe as a result of the skills developed here over the past few decades. A very sizeable industry will still remain here even with UK wide production at half it's current level. All the bile in the world, all the fairy tales and patriotism will not change the fact Scotland needs to start getting used to the oil no longer playing a major part in the economy. The oil industry is boom\bust. It is not stable, it never has been. You are going into a big bust with one of the more vulnerable producing regions. Anyone who is not advising you to prepare for some very rough times in that industry is just yanking your chain. So a considerable climbdown from your original "oil is finished" claim which triggered this whole argument then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roland B Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Dorlomin appears to be unaware that oil is a cyclical industry. When demand drops, price does. Much like any traded commodity, this is accentuated following a period of over production. The price will recover, it always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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