Jacksgranda Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Very good synopsis there. I think that's why Independents, genuine socialists and other radicals have done well this time round. The two big parties are so similar it makes Miliband's Labour and the Tories at the last UK election look like total extremes! It will be interesting to see how a Government is formed after Labour effectively become a celtic busted flush party. LTL knows what he's talking about! Here's the latest state of play: "With 95 seats filled, Fine Gael has 28 seats; Labour four; Fianna Fáil 28; Sinn Féin 13; Anti-Austerity-Alliance-People Before Profit four; the Social Democrats three; the Green Party one; the Independent Alliance four and 10 seats have gone to Independents." 62 seats to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Share Posted February 28, 2016 FG and FF are both centre-right and it really does revolve around who your grandfather fought for in the civil war to a significant extent. FG are traditionally stronger in and around Dublin, while FF had more of the rural vote. The RC church's opposition to socialism always put a major dent into Labour's electoral prospects, so normal class politics never really emerged. FF forked up big time with the property price bubble that was used to keep the Celtic Tiger going after eastward EU expansion, so it was FG's turn after that, basically. The aftermath of austerity gave SF an opportunity for a big breakthrough but that has fizzled out. Good post.. one thing to add re rural vote. FG has always had strong support with the farmers. Predictions are that FG will shade it with small number of seats more than FF. However both parties will seek to form a majority either by coalition with each other.., that would have previously been unthinkable due to civil war split.... or form with Sinn Fein and an independence alliance Going to be quite messy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Stubbs Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Go over to Ireland fairly regularly and have asked family several times about the difference between FF and FG. As LLL suggests, they start talking about farmers/towns, the civil war etc. Can't get my head around it. Most of them are ex country Meath, now fairly well of Southside Dublin types and are typically FF, iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glenconner Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Fine Gael have some tasty chums in the European Parliament. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Latest returns: - With 104 seats filled, Fine Gael has 31 seats; Labour four; Fianna Fáil 30; Sinn Féin 14; Anti-Austerity-Alliance-People Before Profit four; the Social Democrats three; the Green Party two; the Independent Alliance four and 12 seats have gone to Independents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Kincardine Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Questions to LTL and JG (who seem to ken the score wrt Roi politics): Are SF seen as a legitimate left-wing party with a valid socialist voice or are they regarded as terrorist-loving scum as they are in TFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glenconner Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Questions to LTL and JG (who seem to ken the score wrt Roi politics): Are SF seen as a legitimate left-wing party with a valid socialist voice or are they regarded as terrorist-loving scum as they are in TFS? ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Questions to LTL and JG (who seem to ken the score wrt Roi politics): Are SF seen as a legitimate left-wing party with a valid socialist voice or are they regarded as terrorist-loving scum as they are in TFS? I'm not really au fait with RoI politics, but I found this an interesting read re SF in yesterday's paper. http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/ben-lowry-like-it-or-not-power-at-stormont-has-helped-sanitise-sinn-fein-in-republic-1-7233917 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Share Posted February 28, 2016 Questions to LTL and JG (who seem to ken the score wrt Roi politics): Are SF seen as a legitimate left-wing party with a valid socialist voice or are they regarded as terrorist-loving scum as they are in TFS? They are now seen as a left wing party with a valid socialist left.. labour are centre nowhere near the left. Big mistake having Adams as leader imo, should have got Mary lou Mcdonald to lead party for this election, would probably have got a few more % points. Some people in eire would consider sinn fein but feel they can't vote for them when some of the old timers are still around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Half Rice Half Chips Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Sf's concentrate on socialist politics in the Republic, themselves and fianna fail dropped the united Ireland rhetoric a long time ago because they know it's a surefire vote loser. As a pp said, Gerry Adams as leader is a big hindrance to sf in the Rep because of his links to the troubles. FG and Lab are a bit unlucky, they were handed a bankrupt country five years ago and told "here, fix that", did a pretty good job of it, and have gotten a boot in the balls for their efforts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Kincardine Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Sf's concentrate on socialist politics in the Republic, themselves and fianna fail dropped the united Ireland rhetoric a long time ago because they know it's a surefire vote loser. As a pp said, Gerry Adams as leader is a big hindrance to sf in the Rep because of his links to the troubles. FG and Lab are a bit unlucky, they were handed a bankrupt country five years ago and told "here, fix that", did a pretty good job of it, and have gotten a boot in the balls for their efforts. How do you see the next coalition working, HRHC? Actually, what is the mechanism for forming a gvt in The Roi? 'Over here' Her Maj would ask, probably, the largest party to form an administration. How does it work in South Ireland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parc du gare Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 How do you see the next coalition working, HRHC? Actually, what is the mechanism for forming a gvt in The Roi? 'Over here' Her Maj would ask, probably, the largest party to form an administration. How does it work in South Ireland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parc du gare Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Sorry made an erse of previous post. Enda Kenny becomes 'acting Taoiseach' on authority of the President. Precedent was set in similar circumstances in the 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I'm not really au fait with RoI politics, but I found this an interesting read re SF in yesterday's paper. http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/ben-lowry-like-it-or-not-power-at-stormont-has-helped-sanitise-sinn-fein-in-republic-1-7233917 SF got 13.8%, which is below the Newsletter columnist's best case scenario of only 15%. If they can't take out FF this time as the main deeper shade of green, it's difficult to see how they ever will. A couple of years back they were expecting to be able to do a Syriza, but maybe Syriza's failure to change very much in Greece has shown most people that there are no easy populist answers on the debt issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glenconner Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Great to see the Irish Labour Party taking a doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I was listening to the radio coming home in the car, and the analyst was reckoning on FG finishing with 50 - 55 and FF with 40 - 45, and that they "should do a deal, there's a lot in FF who would love to be in power, opposition is no place". We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
speckled tangerine Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 With thirteen seats yet to be filled it looks even more uncertain how this result will form a Government. Too many on either side of the Fine Gael/Fianna Fail divide are ruling out a grand coalition. Sinn Fein have done well but not well enough to offer enough seats as a junior partner. The Independents, anti austerity crowd and other smaller left-ish types have significent numbers. I can't see a minority government as remotely feasible. Are we looking at another election? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 With thirteen seats yet to be filled it looks even more uncertain how this result will form a Government. Too many on either side of the Fine Gael/Fianna Fail divide are ruling out a grand coalition. Sinn Fein have done well but not well enough to offer enough seats as a junior partner. The Independents, anti austerity crowd and other smaller left-ish types have significent numbers. I can't see a minority government as remotely feasible. Are we looking at another election? There's only 12, one of them is The Speaker. There's far too many Independents to attempt to form a government with all of them on board, and SF have ruled out "enabling" either FG or FF to continue "trampling the poor oppressed peasantry into the mud" (I paraphrase slightly, but not much), so maybe the more pragmatic elements of FG and FF will knock some heads together and form some sort of coalition/alliance/understanding. Of course there's the danger of splitting their parties, working with the "enemy". It was hinted that a change of leadership might be required for this accommodation to take place. It's all very much up in the air at the minute, we'll see what next week brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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