Motherwell FC - A Thread For All Seasons

[Swello]

I think the biggest/most important thing to take from the AGM is that the model that has served us well recently - selling our home produced players effectively, having some on-field "success" and having 'Well society funds as a backstop - is running out of road. 

Some of this is likely to be because our production line of young players has skipped a generation (ie - the gap between the Turnbull-Campbell generation and the current 16 year olds which the club are very confident about) due to covid but maybe also a failure to replicate the environment that Crags had with his squad.

The main issues though are what was already apparent - english lower league market has seen a mental wage spike due to Brexit turning off the foreigners tap and so we can't get the standard of player we could have got in the past (and we are paying a lot more for what we're getting).

Secondly (and probably most importantly), we are being financially out-muscled in our own league in a way that we weren't in the past. Leaving the OF aside, there are a bunch of clubs that owners/benefactors are happy to underwrite large losses each year and it effectively leaves St Mirren and Us (and I assume Livi although they didn't come up) with no-one pumping in free money - or being there as an emergency backstop (and I would put St Johnstone and Killie in this bracket rather than the Aberdeen/Hibs/Utd/Hearts one).

Brexit isn't going away, people willing to fund  3, 4, 5 million quid losses annually are here in the medium term at least and so our risk is that we can no longer generate enough money to be the mid-table type team we've been in recent years.

[Handsome John]

5 minutes ago, Swello said:

Secondly (and probably most importantly), we are being financially out-muscled in our own league in a way that we weren't in the past. Leaving the OF aside, there are a bunch of clubs that owners/benefactors are happy to underwrite large losses each year and it effectively leaves St Mirren and Us (and I assume Livi although they didn't come up) with no-one pumping in free money - or being there as an emergency backstop (and I would put St Johnstone and Killie in this bracket rather than the Aberdeen/Hibs/Utd/Hearts one).

Killie I would say are middle ground IMO. Don’t see them posting losses similar to Aberdeen, United, etc but they do have a guy there who is quite happy to chuck £3-4M at a new training ground for them which will be a factor for players deciding to sign for us and them! 

[Swello]

9 minutes ago, Handsome John said:

Killie I would say are middle ground IMO. Don’t see them posting losses similar to Aberdeen, United, etc but they do have a guy there who is quite happy to chuck £3-4M at a new training ground for them which will be a factor for players deciding to sign for us and them! 

Yeh - Killie and St Johnstone aren't spunking huge losses every year and live within their means - but they have someone who could bail them out in a really bad year (or fund a big capital project) - that's why I put them in a separate category.

Edited January 25, 2023 by Swello

[welldaft]

8 hours ago, Kapowzer said:

Other things of note - The way Ross County and Dundee are run/go about things left our board scratching their heads on multiple occasions.

Great summary. Thanks.

I assume you / they meant Dundee United. Could be Dundee right enough. Ross C and United have reasonably wealthy owners. So if like Boyle before they are happy or more so willing to lose millions then I don’t suppose it should bother us unduly. Clearly they are spending way above their means. 

I would like to know more about McGinley. Whether that was talked about in any more depth. But it is clear we have a player that for whatever reason cannot or won’t feature for us again. I have sympathy for whatever his problems are as he seems a decent enough lad. But surely we would be looking to cut a deal for him to move on

[Swello]

3 minutes ago, welldaft said:

I would like to know more about McGinley. Whether that was talked about in any more depth. But it is clear we have a player that for whatever reason cannot or won’t feature for us again. I have sympathy for whatever his problems are as he seems a decent enough lad. But surely we would be looking to cut a deal for him to move on

He came up in a discussion about keeping things private where medical stuff is concerned and players'/everyone's right to privacy - I think it's worth us taking the hint from that and move on TBH.

[welldaft]

44 minutes ago, Swello said:

Secondly (and probably most importantly), we are being financially out-muscled in our own league in a way that we weren't in the past. Leaving the OF aside, there are a bunch of clubs that owners/benefactors are happy to underwrite large losses each year and it effectively leaves St Mirren and Us (and I assume Livi although they didn't come up) with no-one pumping in free money - or being there as an emergency backstop (and I would put St Johnstone and Killie in this bracket rather than the Aberdeen/Hibs/Utd/Hearts one).

Brexit isn't going away, people willing to fund  3, 4, 5 million quid losses annually are here in the medium term at least and so our risk is that we can no longer generate enough money to be the mid-table type team we've been in recent years.

Had not read this before posting but very much a valid point. I think selling Turnbull and getting the Gov money has provided some financial leeway. But going forward it will probably become more of a struggle. And ultimately that will have us more likely in the bottom half of the Premiership than top half or god forbid even the Championship. As long as the 1 owner clubs keep subsidising their teams. 

Thing is most get bored after a while and even angry at the losses they rather stupidly did not forecast. Even John Boyle who was and is still a Motherwell fan had enough. So why would Yank owners continue. Ron Gordon at Hibs has deeper pockets than the guy at United, but both will probably tire of losing a 2-3 million every season. As for Roy McGregor - is he actually a 100% Ross County fan ? I have seen talk of their fans acknowledging when the time comes for him to walk away they will most probably fall back down through the leagues. 

 

Edited January 25, 2023 by welldaft

[welldaft]

5 minutes ago, Swello said:

He came up in a discussion about keeping things private where medical stuff is concerned and players'/everyone's right to privacy - I think it's worth us taking the hint from that and move on TBH.

Of course I agree. Hence my comments about having sympathy for the player. I think it is fair to Q why we would keep him at the club given he is under contract till 2024. When the time is right hopefully we can come to a mutual parting of ways. 

[Handsome John]

27 minutes ago, Swello said:

Yeh - Killie and St Johnstone aren't spunking huge losses every year and live within their means - but they have someone who could bail them out in a really bad year (or fund a big capital project) - that's why I put them in a separate category.

Apologies, I read it as you putting them in the same category as us. Although St Johnstone situation could change depending on who, if anyone buys them from the Browns

 

 

[Kapowzer]

On 22/02/2022 at 15:02, Kapowzer said:

3./ We have a very good story that many wealthy individuals or companies may like to align with. Supporter owned, community engagement, suicide prevention, etc. all noble and  may encourage commercial interests and individuals at home and abroad to get involved. Like the academy investment, how or what it will look like, the threshold to entry, reward, etc. things are at a very early stage so no numbers or ideas how it will be fleshed out

Here’s the bit from last years AGM which was repeated pretty much word for word without any acknowledgement it was said last year.

[capt_oats]

1 hour ago, Swello said:

Yeh - Killie and St Johnstone aren't spunking huge losses every year and live within their means - but they have someone who could bail them out in a really bad year (or fund a big capital project) - that's why I put them in a separate category.

It'll be interesting to see St Johnstone's numbers this year for comparison given their last published accounts for their cup double season showed a £507k loss. They had a drop off in league position last season and by all accounts they've been running a huge squad and chucking fees at players.

You'd think having crowds back in would mitigate things a fair bit especially as they've (very publicly) handed over stands to the OF plus selling Ali McCann and Jason Kerr but still...

Edited January 25, 2023 by capt_oats

[Swello]

Just now, Kapowzer said:

Here’s the bit from last years AGM which was repeated pretty much word for word without any acknowledgement it was said last year.

Correct. It was only acknowledged after a good question from the floor - and Jim McMahon had to admit that they'd slept on this stuff due to other priorities. 

I'm honestly not sure what to think about our quest to find our own version of what Hearts have got (someone who pumps money in as a philanthropic gesture rather than a business speculation). I can obviously see the attraction but I wonder how easy it would be in practice and what strings would come attached in our case.

[Kapowzer]

1 hour ago, welldaft said:

Great summary. Thanks.

I assume you / they meant Dundee United. Could be Dundee right enough. Ross C and United have reasonably wealthy owners. So if like Boyle before they are happy or more so willing to lose millions then I don’t suppose it should bother us unduly. Clearly they are spending way above their means. 

I would like to know more about McGinley. Whether that was talked about in any more depth. But it is clear we have a player that for whatever reason cannot or won’t feature for us again. I have sympathy for whatever his problems are as he seems a decent enough lad. But surely we would be looking to cut a deal for him to move on

No I meant Dundee, if I meant Dundee United, I would have added “United”. How much they were paying for players, Lamie being cited.

Edited January 25, 2023 by Kapowzer

[Swello]

2 minutes ago, capt_oats said:

It'll be interesting to see St Johnstone's numbers this year for comparison given their last published accounts for their cup double season showed a £507k loss. They had a drop off in league position last season and by all accounts they've been running a huge squad and chucking fees at players.

You'd think having crowds back in would mitigate things a fair bit especially since as they've (very publicly) handed over stands to the OF plus selling Ali McCann and Jason Kerr but still...

True - but my point was really that Brown isn't setting out to underwrite big operating losses there as part of some deliberate plan as seems to be the case at Utd, Aberdeen, etc. I would imagine all clubs of our size will be feeling the squeeze at the moment for the same reasons as us - mental wage inflation, overheads going up steeply, etc.

If player wages are the biggest cost (and the wages:turnover magic number is creeping back up to dangerous (ie old school SPL) levels in a lot of clubs) - then we can expect to see a dip in the size/quality of our senior squad soon I guess. Our saving grace (again) could be that we have a good crop of young players going to filter in over the next 2-3 years.

[Kapowzer]

With @Swello and @Pettigrew's permission, I'll add what they said in addition/correction to my post so it's all in one place as a resource.

[welldaft]

1 hour ago, Kapowzer said:

No I meant Dundee, if I meant Dundee United, I would have added “United”. How much they were paying for players, Lamie being cited.

Calm down. Just a suggestion as United seem to be overspending and are in the same league. No incompetence on your part inferred. 

Al least you got a greenie. From a surprising source as well. Never saw that coming….yawn 

[Swello]

Away from the business stuff - I thought Hammy came over well last night. He got a bit p***kly at the idea of having a more experienced coach to help him (and I would be the same if it was me TBF) and that he's "too nice". He hung about long enough to answer every question, so probably didn't make it to the Linlithgow-Rovers game as planned - so if we get papped in the next round, it's the shareholders fault.

Quite interesting to me was that we have not been a mile off with the criticisms of how things have gone this season as he pretty much confirmed a lot of what has been said on here and elsewhere (and he took on a haunted look every time the recent Killie game was mentioned ). 

Only worrying thing was that he was talking about how games are more about the physical sided of things once we are playing on bad pitches from here on in - and if there is one thing that our team is not great at....

 

[Handsome_Devil]

9 minutes ago, welldaft said:

Calm down. Just a suggestion as United seem to be overspending and are in the same league. No incompetence on your part inferred. 

Al least you got a greenie. From a surprising source as well. Never saw that coming….yawn 

United we're mentioned along with Dundee, though not County, along these lines last season.

The external investment thing is cracking pub/back of an envelope debate.

You can see why, say, Hibs would be attractive - stadium and facilities to be filled, potential fan base etc, renowned youth system. It's a bit precarious but there's just about a reasonable path to profit.

United less so - smaller crowds, poorer stadium, less corporate chances etc. Does any extra investment really make a big difference to Aberdeen and the Edinburgh teams? The chance of making a sustainable profit here must be less than 50-50, I assume there's a tax write-off benefit at play.

Anyone smaller than that and handing the club money as a serious investment (as opposed to a ticking over loan) is delusional.

Hearts are living the dream here obviously as to make a lasting difference it either needs millions or to be over several years and they seem to have secured both. Fair play to them and it's likely they'll establish themselves as third for a bit...but even then they're miles behind the OF and not so much better than the rest they're invincible over 90 mins (losing to Killie in the LC etc).

We have nothing in that scale and looking for creative alternatives is great - but I'd have low expectations of success, if it was that easy everyone would be doing it already...

[Kapowzer]

28 minutes ago, welldaft said:

Calm down. Just a suggestion as United seem to be overspending and are in the same league. No incompetence on your part inferred. 

Al least you got a greenie. From a surprising source as well. Never saw that coming….yawn 

Does someone need a hug?

[YassinMoutaouakil]

This all sounds a bit shite tbh. Maybe we should just go down and hang out with Morton.

[Handsome_Devil]

4 minutes ago, YassinMoutaouakil said:

This all sounds a bit shite tbh. Maybe we should just go down and hang out with Morton.

I was actually thinking about Morton the other day having seen their support at Celtic. When you think of all the promotions (60? More?) since their last top-flight relegation, you wonder just how they've contrived to not come up since. You'd think purely on the law of averages they'd have fluked a good team in the last three decades.