Motherwell FC - A Thread For All Seasons

[YassinMoutaouakil]

Beating Rangers would be so weird that I think it might happen 

[capt_oats]

13 minutes ago, ropy said:

I thought Spittal was off it today and that may have lead on to his miss.  Everyone largely did fine today, Kelly with two vital contributions but we need two or three to have exceptional games to turn these draws into wins.

I see Spittal's missus gave birth yesterday. The club just shared his IG post.

Congrats and everything. You couldn't really blame him if his mind was elsewhere like.

Edited December 16, 2023 by capt_oats

[Al B]

4 minutes ago, capt_oats said:

I see Spittal's missus gave birth yesterday. The club just shared his IG post.

 

[Handsome_Devil]

1 hour ago, capt_oats said:

Mentioned this in the match thread just there, not necessarily in a happy clapping way more just as a counter-point to the whole form situation - that's us only lost 2 of our last 7 but equally we've now drawn more than any other team in the league.

Tbh, stating the obvious but losing to both Livi and County have kind of fucked us at the moment since wins in both those games would have us sat comfortably mid-table on 22 points (not that we deserved to win either but that's not really the point).

Could've, would've, should've/aunties, uncles, baws etc.

We should just have a graf pinned on this thread about the margins which define success or failure in this league over one game or 38.

You're clearly correct with even two wins win the last 14,  a run which would hardly be wonderful, we'd be looking a lot better. On the other hand, after playing well in losing the first three of the run, you could argue that the point gained from County and Dundee were total gifts while St Johnstone let us off the hook twice as well. Even today, as much as we were apparently a bit more dangerous, they missed a bloody penalty.

So if we're playing hypotheticals, as much as we could have been better, it's not a big leap to us being even worse, which is some going.

I'd still be making the change now...I just can't see us getting the results over the next four before the window which won't make it inevitable and surely now is better than starting this process during a make or break window.

[ropy]

19 minutes ago, capt_oats said:

I see Spittal's missus gave birth yesterday. The club just shared his IG post.

Congrats and everything. You couldn't really blame him if his mind was elsewhere like.

He could have done that baby rocking celebration like a Brazilian.

[ropy]

11 minutes ago, Handsome_Devil said:

 

I'd still be making the change now...I just can't see us getting the results over the next four before the window which won't make it inevitable and surely now is better than starting this process during a make or break window.

I am not particularly looking for a managerial change but I absolutely understand why others are.  Will someone different get more out of these players?  The transfer window is an unknown.  Should it be overseen by someone who has lived through the inadequacies of the first half of the season and seen our shortcomings or should a newcomer have a go?

I don’t know.

[Quatermass]

41 minutes ago, Handsome_Devil said:

We should just have a graf pinned on this thread about the margins which define success or failure in this league over one game or 38.

You're clearly correct with even two wins win the last 14,  a run which would hardly be wonderful, we'd be looking a lot better. On the other hand, after playing well in losing the first three of the run, you could argue that the point gained from County and Dundee were total gifts while St Johnstone let us off the hook twice as well. Even today, as much as we were apparently a bit more dangerous, they missed a bloody penalty.

So if we're playing hypotheticals, as much as we could have been better, it's not a big leap to us being even worse, which is some going.

I'd still be making the change now...I just can't see us getting the results over the next four before the window which won't make it inevitable and surely now is better than starting this process during a make or break window.

I think the calls for his head have actually died down. I get the fact that the team aren’t chucking it but no wins in 14 league games is beyond woeful. I always felt he was getting until the Livi game. I would have made the change after County. We aren’t beating the teams above us, around about us or even the one below us. No way we are winning our next game. Even a draw wouldn’t change my mind over Kettlewell’s future. Going into Livi with a streak of 15 without a win? Should never happen. The board are 100% accepting of our relegation. 

[Handsome_Devil]

1 hour ago, ropy said:

I am not particularly looking for a managerial change but I absolutely understand why others are.  Will someone different get more out of these players?  The transfer window is an unknown.  Should it be overseen by someone who has lived through the inadequacies of the first half of the season and seen our shortcomings or should a newcomer have a go?

I don’t know.

I'd argue that modern football, which is rubbish ofc, relies on a new manager bringing a new voice, new life and getting more out of folk who are already there. I appreciate the argument we can't sack a manager every year but frankly even successful managers last about 2.5 seasons these days...the principle and practice clash somewhat.

Bizarrely his finally playing Gent and Davor have eased my annoyance a bit but do you trust him to recruit in January? I'm one of the most defensive of his transfer record - given the budget cuts - and at best I'm 50-50.

But the main point for me is we should never be in a position where we bin a manager at this stage - it's giving up even the pretence of planning. And even his most determined backers would surely say four losses from now means he has to go.

What I would say - bizarrely - is being adrift in 11th but well clear of 12th does change the calculation. Everyone says oh no we'll lose the playoff, logically looking at history that's clearly not true...so if we beat Livingston and scramble something from the other three, we may feel the risk-reward has changed. 

[ropy]

37 minutes ago, Handsome_Devil said:

I'd argue that modern football, which is rubbish ofc, relies on a new manager bringing a new voice, new life and getting more out of folk who are already there. I appreciate the argument we can't sack a manager every year but frankly even successful managers last about 2.5 seasons these days...the principle and practice clash somewhat.

Bizarrely his finally playing Gent and Davor have eased my annoyance a bit but do you trust him to recruit in January? I'm one of the most defensive of his transfer record - given the budget cuts - and at best I'm 50-50.

But the main point for me is we should never be in a position where we bin a manager at this stage - it's giving up even the pretence of planning. And even his most determined backers would surely say four losses from now means he has to go.

What I would say - bizarrely - is being adrift in 11th but well clear of 12th does change the calculation. Everyone says oh no we'll lose the playoff, logically looking at history that's clearly not true...so if we beat Livingston and scramble something from the other three, we may feel the risk-reward has changed. 

I’ve stated before that my measure of a season is a point a game.  We are one win away from being on par.  We are one defeat away from being off course.  The next match is unfortunate.  Part of me thinks that teams should stick with the manager they start the season with and take their medicine if it doesn’t work.

I wish he had played the Gent Spencer Davor triumvirate through choice rather than stumbling on to it through necessity.  I am unclear what he does when players filter back from injury.  McGinn had an outing today.  Will he replace O’Donnell?  If so does O’Donnell take on a full back role? What about Casey?  What about Butcher?  Does he stick with a team that is beginning to look like it could turn a corner (maybe) or do the usual suspects return because that was the mindset at the start of the season?

It seems to me that it is when he has choices that he struggles.  Give him 11 fit players and he will probably do ok.

[GorbalsMags]

1 minute ago, ropy said:

I’ve stated before that my measure of a season is a point a game.  We are one win away from being on par.  We are one defeat away from being off course.  The next match is unfortunate.  Part of me thinks that teams should stick with the manager they start the season with and take their medicine if it doesn’t work.

I wish he had played the Gent Spencer Davor triumvirate through choice rather than stumbling on to it through necessity.  I am unclear what he does when players filter back from injury.  McGinn had an outing today.  Will he replace O’Donnell?  If so does O’Donnell take on a full back role? What about Casey?  What about Butcher?  Does he stick with a team that is beginning to look like it could turn a corner (maybe) or do the usual suspects return because that was the mindset at the start of the season?

It seems to me that it is when he has choices that he struggles.  Give him 11 fit players and he will probably do ok.

Usually I agree with this but St Johnstone both this season and last season axed managers at different times and both times it worked out and was the right decision

[eliphas]

The negative:

We should have picked up more than 2 points from the last 4  games. Just not good enough.

6 points in 14 games...jesus.

Let's be honest too, the point today and the point at Celtic were down to poor penalties being saved rather than the other way around.

Every team around us has games in hand also which is worrying.

SK still deserves to go in my book for the number of bad decisions he's made over the summer and season to date.

The positive:

Better performance last two weeks all round. So that's good.

Someone mentioned it before but SK is probably hitting his success factors. I don't really have as much info as I had during the GA time but I'd imagine SK has three major factors 

1-Cut the budget. Which he has done. Unless that's blown out in January 

2-Finish 10th. Still do-able

3-Get a decent cup run. Still do-able. 

We are maybe trending in the right direction but I'm not entirely convinced.

Edited December 17, 2023 by eliphas

[Allroy for Prez]

I said before they happened we needed 6-9 points from the upcoming Ross County, Dundee, St Johnstone and St Mirren games. 

We got 3.

Easily on course for no wins in 16. Not winning the Livi game is unthinkable. 

[ropy]

There would be a symmetry if we stumbled along until the defeat by Alloa.

[crazylegsjoe_mfc]

12 hours ago, ropy said:

I’ve stated before that my measure of a season is a point a game.  We are one win away from being on par.  We are one defeat away from being off course. 

Since the playoffs came in (excluding the cut short COVID season) our current pro-rata points total of 34 rounded up slightly, would only have been enough to avoid the playoffs in 2 of 9 seasons. Like you say, point per game has always been adequate for 10th or above in that time.

I think it was @Handsome_Devilwho said the other day that this season feels like 2002/03. There are parallels, like going September - December winless. As much as I hope it doesn't play out that way overall, I wouldn't mind another parallel of playing Rangers at home within one day of Christmas. That went alright for us that season.

[capt_oats]

16 hours ago, Handsome_Devil said:

I'd argue that modern football, which is rubbish ofc, relies on a new manager bringing a new voice, new life and getting more out of folk who are already there. I appreciate the argument we can't sack a manager every year but frankly even successful managers last about 2.5 seasons these days...the principle and practice clash somewhat.

Bizarrely his finally playing Gent and Davor have eased my annoyance a bit but do you trust him to recruit in January? I'm one of the most defensive of his transfer record - given the budget cuts - and at best I'm 50-50.

But the main point for me is we should never be in a position where we bin a manager at this stage - it's giving up even the pretence of planning. And even his most determined backers would surely say four losses from now means he has to go.

I'm kind of in the same place tbh. I agree 100% that in the current football culture we're doing well to get 3 seasons out of a Motherwell manager.

Like, I'd still be surprised if he's our manager at the end of the season or even if he does manage to finish 10th or above with his contract up at the end of the season given our form is it likely he'd be getting a renewal? IIRC the season the wheels fell off for McGhee with the run including the 7-2 at Pittordrie and 5-1 against Dundee he's expressed an interest in sticking around but confirmed the board at the time had made no indication of offering him a new deal (and we were mid-table at the time).

As I've said before Kettlewell feels very much a transitional figure for us - a guy who's dug us out a hole and overseen the "difficult" decisions in trimming the squad. He's effectively cleared the decks for whoever the next guy is.

I think the hesitation I have in terms of sticking or twisting with Kettlewell at the moment is that I genuinely don't trust those making that decision to appoint someone who'd improve us. Especially in the context we have at the moment of the two losses in the last seven or 1 in the last 5 depending on what what you look at it - obviously the no wins in fourteen is a big picture thing but in terms of recent form it feels like things could just as easily break for Kettlewell as against him.

It'd be different if I thought there was an obvious, outstanding candidate to drop in but as it stands do I necessarily think jobbers like Gary Bowyer or Simon Grayson would do a significantly better job than Kettlewell is currently doing?

I don't think his recruitment has been that bad, I think we have the guts of a good team in there but regardless of him trying to walk things back the other day the fact it took circumstances outwith his control to force him into getting Gent and Davor into the starting XI doesn't reflect well on him and in terms of the scenario @ropy mentioned, I'm still not convinced he'll make the right choices when the various injured players return.

Edited December 17, 2023 by capt_oats

[Handsome_Devil]

1 hour ago, capt_oats said:

As I've said before Kettlewell feels very much a transitional figure for us - a guy who's dug us out a hole and overseen the "difficult" decisions in trimming the squad. He's effectively cleared the decks for whoever the next guy is.

...

It'd be different if I thought there was an obvious, outstanding candidate to drop in but as it stands do I necessarily think jobbers like Gary Bowyer or Simon Grayson would do a significantly better job than Kettlewell is currently doing?

I definitely understand the transitional feel but obvious question is transitional to what? We got our fingers by burned with the attempted Alexander era, will we try that again? Or would we just bring in another "jobber" for 18 months until it's time to move on again?

As for jobbers in general, there's no guarantee if course but generally speaking there is a bounce and if that bounce keeps you up...

I've said before my concern about SK is/was only partly the results - if he'd been doing everything right but still losing I'd have been much more likely to say we should hold our nerve.

As the for the feeling things might be turning...well, yes, maybe they are but when you blow the 'easy' games and only improve going into a run where three of four is Rangers, Pittodrie, Easter Road, there's no guarantee that's enough.

 

[YassinMoutaouakil]

Watching this final we should taking 6 points from the next two

[ropy]

Just watching Sportscene there and thinking that if the board were to pull the trigger it would be because Blair Spittal couldn’t slide the ball between the posts.  

[Quatermass]

Had no idea we were playing Aberdeen on the 27th. Thought it was Livi straight after Rangers. I think Aberdeen will kick on now. With Europe and the Final out of the way they can fully focus on the league so I expect them so be out of sight soon. A run of 16 without a win going up against Livi? I can’t see anything else.

I’m slightly impressed many are remaining calm in respect to Kettlewell and the ‘run’. I’d say I’m equally as calm…….but I’d still make the change. Is there any evidence of a modern manager being on such a run and turning it around? The Club comes before any individual. Relegation could be catastrophic and coming straight back up holds no guarantees. It is not working under Kettlewell. Simple as that.
 

I know we have had to cut playing numbers. Does anyone know where we would sit in the budget league table. Do we have the 11th biggest budget in the league For example? If so then relegation will happen. If not this season then over the course of the next two.

If we have the 10th biggest budget in the league there is an argument (a crude one admittedly) that Kettlewell is failing in that respect already.

Edited December 17, 2023 by Quatermass

[GorbalsMags]

Just now, Quatermass said:

Had no idea we were playing Aberdeen on the 27th. Thought it was Livi straight after Rangers. I think Aberdeen will lick on now. With Europe and the Final out of the way they can fully focus on the league so I expect them so be out of sight soon. A run of 16 without a win going up against Livi? I can’t see anything else.

I’m slightly impressed many are remaining calm in respect to Kettlewell and the ‘run’. I’d say I’m equally as calm…….but I’d still make the change. Is there any evidence of a modern manager being on such a run and turning it around? The Club comes before any individual. Relegation could be catastrophic and coming straight back up holds no guarantees. 
 

I know we have had to cut playing squad numbers. Does anyone know where we would sit in the budget league table. Do we have the 11th biggest budget in the league For example? If so then relegation will happen. If not this season then over the course of the next two.

If we have the 10th biggest budget in the league there is an argument (a crude one admittedly) that Kettlewell is failing in that respect already.

Saints lost 10 in a row in 21/22 then stayed in through the playoffs, and recovered in 22/23 before going another 9(iirc) games without wins to get him the sack so, the answer is... not that I can remember