Motherwell FC - A Thread For All Seasons

[StAndrew7]

1 minute ago, Vietnam91 said:

Maybe someone who works in the construction, estimating world can advise, why £12m panned buildings skyrocket to £21m. Is it all extra's, unforeseen costs, price of materials jumping from estimate till realisation, contractors underbidding to win the contract. It's not just Tynecastle, it seems every large development is plagued by these (Edinburgh Trams & Scottish Parliament).

The biggest issue you tend to come across is quoting prices at varying stages of design and when some types of data or studies (e.g. ground conditions) aren't available and those being "run with". Like, a Concept design could be priced at £300m but be +/- 30% so anywhere up to £400m but the +/- isn't included in any announcement. Increases in budget like that don't tend to come as a surprise to the people embedded in the projects but do to those in charge/outside of it, because they forget about the +/- aspect. They see the big number and run with it, basically.

You also have a lot of firms who will quote their lowest, least risk impacted price for something to win the work and then raise compensation events and other issues based on information changing. It all depends on the quality/standard of information provided to the construction firm, contracting methods etc. as well as the contract model you use (e.g. fixed price, design and build, build and so on).

Each cost estimate you get at those stages will have a +/- % attached to each, nominally starting at 50%, reducing to 30% and so on until you reach a convergence point; it's a pretty standard cone of uncertainty model. It also depends on what basic rates for labour, steel, equipment and so on the QS are using; most companies have their own from previous projects and tend to price in a lot of risk early into the process to try and ensure cost certainty as early as possible.

A rough example:

• A pre-concept design (essentially pretty pictures with basic dimensions and a lot of assumptions) is typically +/- 50%
• A concept design where you've maybe got ground condition study results (informing things like piling requirements, structural steel requirements etc.) where you can better mature a design is typically done to +/- 30%
• Final design/build is when you've got a set of drawings etc. that you can build from, that typically ranges from +/- 5-10%

Depending on the speed/need of the contract, some companies will go out to construction tender after a concept design and ask for the appointed contractor to finish the design and also build the building/whatever it is. If you can afford to wait (and pay a bit more) for the certainty of the final design stage, you do it; it's the longest but the least risk averse.

There's also always things like emerging requirements or fluctuations in markets; see Rangers steel debacle and others for examples of this. Other things would be new legislation, or other input from local government etc. that have to be dealt with and can come in last minute and be (very) pricey.

[Vietnam91]

Fantastic insight Kenny, thanks. Granted every site is different but things like a geotechnical survey from the build of the regional sports facility be tapped into and used for indications? Is sharing that sort of thing common? Granted something with a footprint of a stadium would need its own in time but for getting the general condition to put some meat on the bones of groundwork requirements would be helpful in getting a more robust starting figure.

There is a wealth of experience and knowledge that can be tapped into from the WS membership and wider support for any undertaking, service or need of the club.

[standupforthemotherwell]

I don't see any way we can build improved facilities at the current site unless we buy more land either at Knowetop or the remaining houses at that side of Fir Park Street. The current stands extend right to the edges of the road/ school so you would be limited to rebuilding the same thing and miss out on the revenue opportunity from something better. 

Some great ideas from @Vietnam91 in that document but having old firm fans on 3 or 4 sides of the stadium isn't for me. I'd be happier to have one big stand behind the goals again as a nod to FP but at the other end of the ground this time to save the pitch.

Edited 1 hour ago by standupforthemotherwell

[Vietnam91]

19 minutes ago, standupforthemotherwell said:

Some great ideas from @Vietnam91 in that document but having old firm fans on 3 or 4 sides of the stadium isn't for me. I'd be happier to have one big stand behind the goals again as a nod to FP but at the other end of the ground this time to save the pitch.

I agree in part, it is unpalatable for a host of reasons but as the club previously and you have advocated, we have previous of skewing our ground to take advantage of the sectarian pound. Questions arise such as is shooting towards a single, towering, two-tiered stand 4,800 baying fans help them drastically? On a sporting side are we better served by a more modest capacity stand but have them having a wider exposure to the pitch from multiple sides?

Way I look it is, we're dealing with a lot of glory hunters, using the justification "ma da and grandpa were XXXX fans", we've all seen it in all aspects of growing up here from school to entering the workplace. We're not going to change it but we could put a wee dent in it. If being pragmatic about getting something that is a net generator of income involves a few distasteful episodes to facilitate it then, I guess I can live with that.

At present they have a 17x (or more) advantage financially, even with Gucci stadium at best we could maybe reduce that a bit but it will be significant and on the balance of probabilities a result would still be rare even if we were able to put of extra revenue into the first team squad.

Of course the sleeping giant of Lanarkshire with the best facilities for a wee team in the UK could see our home crowd swell to only giving them two ......

Edited 54 minutes ago by Vietnam91

[StAndrew7]

21 minutes ago, Vietnam91 said:

Fantastic insight Kenny, thanks. Granted every site is different but things like a geotechnical survey from the build of the regional sports facility be tapped into and used for indications? Is sharing that sort of thing common? Granted something with a footprint of a stadium would need its own in time but for getting the general condition to put some meat on the bones of groundwork requirements would be helpful in getting a more robust starting figure.

Ravenscraig is too far away from FP to be of much use, plus the land there will be full of contaminants/other shit from the old steelworks. You tend to be able to get the data if you pay the company who did it for it, or it's part of a package of information you receive prior to starting from previous contractors, or the people asking you to do the work.

Probably better looking to see what/if any data is there from the South and Cooper Stands and potentially the new houses on the old college site. The latter would be more for an indication, rather than certainty of what's there, though.

[Vietnam91]

5 minutes ago, StAndrew7 said:

Ravenscraig is too far away from FP to be of much use, plus the land there will be full of contaminants/other shit from the old steelworks. You tend to be able to get the data if you pay the company who did it for it, or it's part of a package of information you receive prior to starting from previous contractors, or the people asking you to do the work.

Probably better looking to see what/if any data is there from the South and Cooper Stands and potentially the new houses on the old college site. The latter would be more for an indication, rather than certainty of what's there, though.

Apologies, I didn't make what I was saying clear. I was asking about what was learned from the Ravenscraig Regional Sports Facility 15 years ago to another site on the Ravenscraig campus that could accommodate a new stadium, surely what was found as part of that would be proximate and therefore commensurate and useful in planning/costing?

[StAndrew7]

15 minutes ago, Vietnam91 said:

Apologies, I didn't make what I was saying clear. I was asking about what was learned from the Ravenscraig Regional Sports Facility 15 years ago to another site on the Ravenscraig campus that could accommodate a new stadium, surely what was found as part of that would be proximate and therefore commensurate and useful in planning/costing?

Again, that's very much dependent on the area you're going to work in and what it was used for previously and its location relative to those boreholes.

A borehole taken 100m away (or less, in some instances) could show entirely different ground conditions to another one; different contaminants, concrete platens etc. Like, you can absolutely use them to make general decisions/take a risk-based view on what they mean for the area you want to work in but it's only increasing the risk on the project and ultimately the cost.

Ultimately you're going to want to do them in the area you want to build in, I can't think of a single construction/design company that would take on the ground condition risk for a site like Ravenscraig without adequate investigations being done beforehand.

Edited 32 minutes ago by StAndrew7

[Vietnam91]

100%, it was more to give a more rounded idea of the cost of groundworks if you had a building of a commensurate size within 500m built 15 years ago. Just trying to avoid the +/-50% thing you cited in your outline post from earlier.

[StAndrew7]

3 minutes ago, Vietnam91 said:

100%, it was more to give a more rounded idea of the cost of groundworks if you had a building of a commensurate size within 500m built 15 years ago. Just trying to avoid the +/-50% thing you cited in your outline post from earlier.

The +/- 50% thing is always going to happen; it's part of any design process.

It's up to the Club how far down the process they want to go before engaging a construction firm and going after funding at whatever level of cost certainty they want.

Edited 27 minutes ago by StAndrew7

[thisGRAEME]

reading these posts and I'm struck as always about how made up my job is

[Desp]

14 minutes ago, thisGRAEME said:

reading these posts and I'm struck as always about how made up my job is

As long as it's made up by about +/-30% then you'll be fine for a wee bit longer 

[capt_oats]

Nicely done.