O'Kelly Isley III Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 1 hour ago, Detournement said: When they get into government they will open negotiations with Brussels on a better deal. So just to be clear here; you are telling us that the Labour Party which has always relied on a quota of Scottish MP's to form the UK Government will still succeed in that endeavour if that quota continues to run at the present level ? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 The Labour leadership are going to have to change tack if this YouGov poll is accurate. Quote A YouGov poll commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign showed nearly 90 per cent of Labour Party members want another referendum, three-quarters would like to see a commitment in Labour’s manifesto – but critically, it shows that 93 per cent would vote to stay in the EU if they were given a chance. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-brexit-corbyn-motion-referendum-peoples-vote-final-say-a8551736.html 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 6 minutes ago, welshbairn said: The Labour leadership are going to have to change tack if this YouGov poll is accurate. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-brexit-corbyn-motion-referendum-peoples-vote-final-say-a8551736.html Why would they need too. They have their fake referendum up for vote in conference and its just a matter of ensuring the tories do not fall before March and they get their life long desire for Brexit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btb Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 25 minutes ago, zidane's child said: A GE will not be called as the Tories will fear: a) They'll lose the whole thing and they'll be opposition b) Labour adds to its 260 seats and further decreases the Tory seat count Any talk of a GE is just hopeful from Labour sadly. It doesn't mean they shouldn't be trying to force one. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zidane's child Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 Just now, btb said: It doesn't mean they shouldn't be trying to force one. Yeah but in essence, the FTPA 2011 also makes that difficult. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 15 minutes ago, O'Kelly Isley III said: So just to be clear here; you are telling us that the Labour Party which has always relied on a quota of Scottish MP's to form the UK Government will still succeed in that endeavour if that quota continues to run at the present level ? Labour have 7 target seats in Scotland where they need less than 1000 votes. I would expect them to take them all. There are another 16 seats that require less than a 5% swing. The SNP will need to seriously improve their messaging on their purpose at Westminster to hold onto them. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 10 minutes ago, Detournement said: Labour have 7 target seats in Scotland where they need less than 1000 votes. I would expect them to take them all. There are another 16 seats that require less than a 5% swing. The SNP will need to seriously improve their messaging on their purpose at Westminster to hold onto them. Why do you expect them to take all these seats? No polls showing they would do such a thing. The SNP will not run another disastrous campaign like the last one in which their supporters stayed at home. I fully expect the SNP to take back all the seats from Labour that they lost. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 Labour have 7 target seats in Scotland where they need less than 1000 votes. I would expect them to take them all. There are another 16 seats that require less than a 5% swing. The SNP will need to seriously improve their messaging on their purpose at Westminster to hold onto them. That is about as accurate as your Northern Rock predictions. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 When they get into government they will open negotiations with Brussels on a better deal. So would they accept free movement of labour or would the put a hard border between NI and ROI or down the Irish Sea? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 33 minutes ago, Colkitto said: Why do you expect them to take all these seats? No polls showing they would do such a thing. The SNP will not run another disastrous campaign like the last one in which their supporters stayed at home. I fully expect the SNP to take back all the seats from Labour that they lost. Due to tactical voting. A lot of people in the central belt thought that voting Tory was the best way to unseat the SNP. All it takes is a bit of that anti SNP vote to switch to Labour and they take the seats. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zidane's child Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, Detournement said: Due to tactical voting. A lot of people in the central belt thought that voting Tory was the best way to unseat the SNP. All it takes is a bit of that anti SNP vote to switch to Labour and they take the seats. I don't have the latest polls at hand but I'm sure they had the SNP as a +6 gain for the next election! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 Just now, Detournement said: Due to tactical voting. A lot of people in the central belt thought that voting Tory was the best way to unseat the SNP. All it takes is a bit of that anti SNP vote to switch to Labour and they take the seats. In the country overall the SNP lost about 10,000 votes per seat compared to 2015. When Nicola decided not to make independence an issue in 2017, the pro indy voters just stayed at home. Any future election will be run on indyref2 and Brexit. Those voters will come back out again. We may not get a repeat of the 2015 tsunami, but we'll take back a lot of seats. I'd expect Labour will hold possibly 1 seat. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 (edited) 9 minutes ago, zidane's child said: I don't have the latest polls at hand but I'm sure they had the SNP as a +6 gain for the next election! Its old but they do look strong for the moment. 2017 the votes were SNP 36.9% CON 28.6% LAB 27.1% LD 6.8% How that would break into seats would take a lot of sifting. Fair to say you would expect CON>SNP and LAB>SNP to be the big moves in terms of seats. Edited September 24, 2018 by dorlomin 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 1 minute ago, Colkitto said: In the country overall the SNP lost about 10,000 votes per seat compared to 2015. When Nicola decided not to make independence an issue in 2017, the pro indy voters just stayed at home. Any future election will be run on indyref2 and Brexit. Those voters will come back out again. We may not get a repeat of the 2015 tsunami, but we'll take back a lot of seats. I'd expect Labour will hold possibly 1 seat. How can the SNP run on Indyref2 in 2021 or 2022 when they won't call it now? And it's not a WM issue. And there will possibly be a Holyrood election first where if there isn't a majority for independence it's off the menu for five years. The SNP don't have any credible message about how their Westminster MPs can improve the lives of Scots. The next election is going to be about ending austerity which means a Labour government. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btb Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 7 minutes ago, Colkitto said: In the country overall the SNP lost about 10,000 votes per seat compared to 2015. When Nicola decided not to make independence an issue in 2017, the pro indy voters just stayed at home. Any future election will be run on indyref2 and Brexit. Those voters will come back out again. We may not get a repeat of the 2015 tsunami, but we'll take back a lot of seats. I'd expect Labour will hold possibly 1 seat. We wont but we I expect us to do better than 2017. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, Detournement said: How can the SNP run on Indyref2 in 2021 or 2022 when they won't call it now? And it's not a WM issue. And there will possibly be a Holyrood election first where if there isn't a majority for independence it's off the menu for five years. The SNP don't have any credible message about how their Westminster MPs can improve the lives of Scots. The next election is going to be about ending austerity which means a Labour government. I was mainly talking about if an election was held soon, as in the next 12 months. If the WM election does come after the Holyrood election then yes, you would need to see what the outcome was first. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 5 minutes ago, btb said: We wont but we I expect us to do better than 2017. The clamour for indyref2 has already started. If an election was held in the next 6-12 months, you couldn't avoid making it an issue in a WM election 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 20 minutes ago, Colkitto said: The clamour for indyref2 has already started. If an election was held in the next 6-12 months, you couldn't avoid making it an issue in a WM election Surely the thing to do is table legislation at Holyrood? The SNP conference will make their intentions more obvious. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteRoseKillie Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 4 hours ago, Granny Danger said: Labour saying their preference is for a GE to deal with Brexit. Fine, what is Labour’s policy on Brexit in the event of an election being called? At the moment it is as clear as mud. You're better than this, GD. Labour's policy, as it has been since the UK decided to self-harm, is to attempt to negotiate* an agreement which does the least harm to the majority of people (let's call them "the workers"). FWIW, I reckon the first conversation will go something like this: Keir Starmer: "Look, those cúnts have gone now - any chance of an extension to A50 so we can talk like grown-ups?" EU: "Not a problem." *Tories and Brexit supporters please note - this negotiation would probably involve talking to people, not shouting at them, and I am fairly sure the use of images such as the White Cliffs, Churchill and Spitfires would be kept to a minimum. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 7 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said: You're better than this, GD. Labour's policy, as it has been since the UK decided to self-harm, is to attempt to negotiate* an agreement which does the least harm to the majority of people (let's call them "the workers"). FWIW, I reckon the first conversation will go something like this: Keir Starmer: "Look, those cúnts have gone now - any chance of an extension to A50 so we can talk like grown-ups?" EU: "Not a problem." *Tories and Brexit supporters please note - this negotiation would probably involve talking to people, not shouting at them, and I am fairly sure the use of images such as the White Cliffs, Churchill and Spitfires would be kept to a minimum. Sorry pal, that a rose-tinted-glasses view. Corbyn’s ‘Jobs Friendly Brexit’ is meaningless waffle. The best thing for doing the least harm to most people is staying in the EU and McDonald and McCluskey are ruling that out whilst Corbyn is avoiding the question. I reckon if that position is held many Labour activists, including Corbyn supporters, will be pissed off. If Brexit goes ahead then the people who will suffer worst will be the most vulnerable; that’s the folk that those on the left are supposed to protect. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.