Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[Granny Danger]

8 hours ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

Do you really think that when push comes to shove that other than the off-the-scale hardliners that any MP wants to be a handmaiden to utter mayhem ?

This.

Maybe the very best option at this stage is MPs to have the option of two diametrically opposite, seemingly equally disliked options.

When it came to pulling the trigger there would be more who would support the status quo than an option that would cause carnage.

 

[AUFC90]

This.
Maybe the very best option at this stage is MPs to have the option of two diametrically opposite, seemingly equally disliked options.
When it came to pulling the trigger there would be more who would support the status quo than an option that would cause carnage.
 

Not so sure. We all know they value their position more than anything else and if they vote to literally cancel Brexit they'll be out on their arse at the next election.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

Not so sure. We all know they value their position more than anything else and if they vote to literally cancel Brexit they'll be out on their arse at the next election.

For the future of the UK that's an outcome that is well worth considering, and any MP who places their electoral hide above it doesn't deserve to be in Parliament.

[AUFC90]

For the future of the UK that's an outcome that is well worth considering, and any MP who places their electoral hide above it doesn't deserve to be in Parliament.

I'm just replying to Granny is his belief that MPs will vote for remain over no deal. End of the day over half the country don't want to remain so you can't say they don't deserve to be in parliament.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

I'm just replying to Granny is his belief that MPs will vote for remain over no deal. End of the day over half the country don't want to remain so you can't say they don't deserve to be in parliament.

Well, actually I can. Check out the percentage of the UK electorate who voted Leave and you will find it a lot less than 50 per cent. We also know much more now about the implications of that vote and it is very far from what was presented - is a conscientious MP not expected to apply rigour to the process ?

Those who parrot Leave Means Leave fascinate me. It's like proposing to your girlfriend and finding two years later that she's a drug-addled streetwalker but we'll still go ahead with the wedding. Not if I can help it.

[AUFC90]

Well, actually I can. Check out the percentage of the UK electorate who voted Leave and you will find it a lot less than 50 per cent. We also know much more now about the implications of that vote and it is very far from what was presented - is a conscientious MP not expected to apply rigour to the process ?

 

Those who parrot Leave Means Leave fascinate me. It's like proposing to your girlfriend and finding two years later that she's a drug-addled streetwalker but we'll still go ahead with the wedding. Not if I can help it.

I'm not parroting anything. I'm a remain voter. Less percentage of people voted remain than leave so that argument doesn't stack up. Fact is that anyone who doesn't believe that any MP will find themselves in a very tricky position if asked to vote between remain and no deal is kidding themselves on.

 

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, AUFC90 said:

Not so sure. We all know they value their position more than anything else and if they vote to literally cancel Brexit they'll be out on their arse at the next election.

I apologise if this turns into a long post.  I understand what you are saying, but let’s look seriously at the possible/likely implications of these two extreme scenarios.

Revocation of Article 50.  Everything relating to trade carries on as normal.  Sterling rises.  Industry stop making threats of leaving and start examining investment in the U.K.

There’s a bounce to the economy as folk who have been putting off ‘big ticket’ purchases fell confident enough to spend,

A section of the electorate, backed by the Express and Mail, go batshit crazy.  Minor civil disorder quickly quashed.  Imergence/reimergence of UKIP or similar.

No Deal Brexit

Food shortages, medicine shortages, waste piling up as it can’t be exported.  Severe disruption to transport commercial and for holidays.

Hard border Ireland quickly followed by violence from those desperate to exploit the divisions.

 Civil disruption the level of which is hard to determine but will relate to medicine shortages.  (Wait for the first death(s) caused by lack of medicine).

 

So.  Some MPs will ignore these likely scenarios, the majority won’t.  I think revocation would pass, possibly with lots of abstentions; I simply cannot see a Hard Brexit getting a majority vote.

FWIW if either of these extremes materialised I think a GE within weeks would be inevitable.

[AUFC90]

I apologise if this turns into a long post.  I understand what you are saying, but let’s look seriously at the possible/likely implications of these two extreme scenarios.
Revocation of Article 50.  Everything relating to trade carries on as normal.  Sterling rises.  Industry stop making threats of leaving and start examining investment in the U.K.
There’s a bounce to the economy as folk who have been putting off ‘big ticket’ purchases fell confident enough to spend,
A section of the electorate, backed by the Express and Mail, go batshit crazy.  Minor civil disorder quickly quashed.  Imergence/reimergence of UKIP or similar.
No Deal Brexit
Food shortages, medicine shortages, waste piling up as it can’t be exported.  Severe disruption to transport commercial and for holidays.
Hard border Ireland quickly followed by violence from those desperate to exploit the divisions.
 Civil disruption the level of which is hard to determine but will relate to medicine shortages.  (Wait for the first death(s) caused by lack of medicine).
 
So.  Some MPs will ignore these likely scenarios, the majority won’t.  I think revocation would pass, possibly with lots of abstentions; I simply cannot see a Hard Brexit getting a majority vote.
FWIW if either of these extremes materialised I think a GE within weeks would be inevitable.

I get the benefits of staying hence why I voted remain but to suggest that just staying in the EU and carrying on like nothing has happened holds a bigger majority in the HOC than no deal is fanciful at best. It's ain't going to happen.

[Granny Danger]

2 minutes ago, AUFC90 said:

I get the benefits of staying hence why I voted remain but to suggest that just staying in the EU and carrying on like nothing has happened holds a bigger majority in the HOC than no deal is fanciful at best. It's ain't going to happen.

We will have to disagree then.  I am suggesting what would happen if MPs had to decide on one of these two extremes, I don’t think it will come to that but if it did I maintain that they would bottle it and vote for the safer option.

 

[AUFC90]

We will have to disagree then.  I am suggesting what would happen if MPs had to decide on one of these two extremes, I don’t think it will come to that but if it did I maintain that they would bottle it and vote for the safer option.

 

It's not the safer option when most of their constituents voted out. The only way article 50 will get revoked is via another referendum which no one really seems to be in favour of. At best an extension to Article 50 will happen but never an outright revocation. " Sorry boys we know we gave you a vote but we went to the best universities up and down the land so shut up because we know what's best for you ". Political suicide. Anyone championing outright A50 revocation hasn't been paying attention.

 

[Granny Danger]

7 minutes ago, AUFC90 said:

It's not the safer option when most of their constituents voted out. The only way article 50 will get revoked is via another referendum which no one really seems to be in favour of. At best an extension to Article 50 will happen but never an outright revocation. " Sorry boys we know we gave you a vote but we went to the best universities up and down the land so shut up because we know what's best for you ". Political suicide. Anyone championing outright A50 revocation hasn't been paying attention.

 

Like I say we will have to disagree.

Various reports that Whitehall is looking at a Customs Union option; the civil servants won’t be doing that without political instruction.  Gammon heads gone incoming?

 

[AUFC90]

Like I say we will have to disagree.
Various reports that Whitehall is looking at a Customs Union option; the civil servants won’t be doing that without political instruction.  Gammon heads gone incoming?
 

That's fine by me but that's not the same as "remain because reasons" which has less chance of happening than no deal imo.

[NotThePars]

There probably has to be some sort of Brexit even if it’s just in name for the political system in this country to retain any legitimacy among a substantial portion of the electorate. It’s a shame that the People’s Vote lot came to be dominated immediately by some of the most objectionable faces in British politics since you could’ve probably built a continuity Remain option down the line if everyone had seemed to accept the result at least for a while.

[Miguel Sanchez]

2 hours ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

Well, actually I can. Check out the percentage of the UK electorate who voted Leave and you will find it a lot less than 50 per cent. We also know much more now about the implications of that vote and it is very far from what was presented - is a conscientious MP not expected to apply rigour to the process ?

Those who parrot Leave Means Leave fascinate me. It's like proposing to your girlfriend and finding two years later that she's a drug-addled streetwalker but we'll still go ahead with the wedding. Not if I can help it.

The people know what they voted for - OUT NOW. NO DEAL.

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, NotThePars said:

There probably has to be some sort of Brexit even if it’s just in name for the political system in this country to retain any legitimacy among a substantial portion of the electorate. It’s a shame that the People’s Vote lot came to be dominated immediately by some of the most objectionable faces in British politics since you could’ve probably built a continuity Remain option down the line if everyone had seemed to accept the result at least for a while.

The one thing going for May's deal is it would give at least 2 or three years of much the same as now to persuade people that we'd be much better off back in than any of the alternatives. The EU  might be in the mood for some mild reform after the parliamentary elections that could help a bit too. The Peoples Vote lot should drown themselves though.

Edited February 2, 2019 by welshbairn

[Fullerene]

3 hours ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

Well, actually I can. Check out the percentage of the UK electorate who voted Leave and you will find it a lot less than 50 per cent. We also know much more now about the implications of that vote and it is very far from what was presented - is a conscientious MP not expected to apply rigour to the process ?

Those who parrot Leave Means Leave fascinate me. It's like proposing to your girlfriend and finding two years later that she's a drug-addled streetwalker but we'll still go ahead with the wedding. Not if I can help it.

.. or that she has been married six times before but they all died under mysterious circumstances.

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

The one thing going for May's deal is it would give at least 2 or three years of much the same as now to persuade people that we'd be much better off back in than any of the alternatives. The EU  might be in the mood for some mild reform after the parliamentary elections that could help a bit too. The Peoples Vote lot should drown themselves though.

You’re trying very hard to make a c**t of yourself with comments like that.  There’s no need.

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, Granny Danger said:

You’re trying very hard to make a c**t of yourself with comments like that.  There’s no need.

No, you're right. Blair and Campbell are doing it themselves.

[doulikefish]

Nissan cancelling production of the new x trail in Sunderland

[NotThePars]

The one thing going for May's deal is it would give at least 2 or three years of much the same as now to persuade people that we'd be much better off back in than any of the alternatives. The EU  might be in the mood for some mild reform after the parliamentary elections that could help a bit too. The Peoples Vote lot should drown themselves though.

Aye they’ve had a shocker. I was convinced May’s deal would’ve passed because it was probably the best offer on the table but she’s so singularly repugnant and authoritarian that even the worst Labour MPs haven’t budged. The People’s Vote waging a scorched earth policy on any alternatives to their referenda, refusing to provide any substance on what they wanted, being led by the woat characters, and being staffed with loads of people who basically began the campaign for another referendum the morning after the first one ultimately doomed them.

Also laughing at Old Man Danger tone policing you after repeatedly calling a woman a c**t the day before.