welshbairn Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Detournement said: No candidate is likely to gain over 50% of the delegates so they almost certainly will come into place. Like a bet? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 2 hours ago, sjc said: Biden offers American voters nothing different from what Hillary did....this is why Trump won in the first place. More Democrats didn't vote at all or voted for Trump than did for Hillary. Trump isn't the problem, he's a cause of the problem. Saunders would sweep the board if he won the nomination......he'd sadly be ostracised by the Corporate bought Senate & House of Reps once in power. I think your analysis is flawed in a couple of ways. For 2016 the American wanted ‘something different’, I think that was Sainders’ time. Having experiences that ‘something different’ many voters will revert to a more traditional candidate. As with the U.K. the election will be won or lost at the margins; Clinton already won the popular vote, Biden just needs to be a bit more strategic. Bidden will be a terrible President but will be better than Trump. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 1 minute ago, welshbairn said: Like a bet? Betting with randoms off the internet about poltical events 12 months away isn't really my cup of tea tbh. Which candidate do you think will make 50%+? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Just now, Detournement said: Betting with randoms off the internet about poltical events 12 months away isn't really my cup of tea tbh. Which candidate do you think will make 50%+? I guess that Northern Rock thing hit you hard. No idea but there hasn't been a second ballot since 1952. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjc Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 1 minute ago, welshbairn said: I guess that Northern Rock thing hit you hard. No idea but there hasn't been a second ballot since 1952. They've increased the number of candidates allowed this time round. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 (edited) 14 minutes ago, sjc said: They've increased the number of candidates allowed this time round. I didn't think there was a limit before? Other than needing shitloads of cash of course, when donations rapidly fall away when you don't win any primaries. Edited June 20, 2019 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjc Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: I think your analysis is flawed in a couple of ways. For 2016 the American wanted ‘something different’, I think that was Sainders’ time. Having experiences that ‘something different’ many voters will revert to a more traditional candidate. As with the U.K. the election will be won or lost at the margins; Clinton already won the popular vote, Biden just needs to be a bit more strategic. Bidden will be a terrible President but will be better than Trump. I disagree that Biden would be better than Trump. He's from the same neoliberal school as Clinton and Obama. His dodgy dealings in Ukraine tells us this. Americans will still vote for someone/anyone that offers: • Healthcare that doesn't leave 30m uncovered. • A minimum/living wage that doesn't mean 40% of their homeless being in FT employment. • An end to Americas involvement in foreign wars. Biden offers none of these.... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Henry Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 1 minute ago, sjc said: I disagree that Biden would be better than Trump. He's from the same neoliberal school as Clinton and Obama. His dodgy dealings in Ukraine tells us this. Americans will still vote for someone/anyone that offers: • Healthcare that doesn't leave 30m uncovered. • A minimum/living wage that doesn't mean 40% of their homeless being in FT employment. • An end to Americas involvement in foreign wars. Biden offers none of these.... If you're an immigrant, a muslim, a woman, almost anyone other than a rust belt male (and even that's dubious), Biden is far more preferable than Trump. There's a huge difference between the current Democrat party and the current GOP under Trump. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjc Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, welshbairn said: I didn't think there was a limit before? That went to the Democratic ballot? It was just Hillary and Saunders. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, sjc said: That went to the Democratic ballot? It was just Hillary and Saunders. The others withdrew voluntarily as they weren't getting enough support, AFAIK. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjc Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Just now, Savage Henry said: If you're an immigrant, a muslim, a woman, almost anyone other than a rust belt male (and even that's dubious), Biden is far more preferable than Trump. There's a huge difference between the current Democrat party and the current GOP under Trump. I'd agree there's no difference between the Dems & Reps.......hence why more voters abstained than voted last time. The only difference between Trump and Obama, Bush(2), Clinton, Bush(1) is that he doesn't do diplomacy. Trump is part of Wall Street, the others were bought and paid for by Wall Street and the Military industrial complex. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjc Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Just now, welshbairn said: The others withdrew voluntarily as they weren't getting enough support, AFAIK. I'm sure it only went to the ballot once it was the final 2. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 17 minutes ago, Savage Henry said: If you're an immigrant, a muslim, a woman, almost anyone other than a rust belt male (and even that's dubious), Biden is far more preferable than Trump. There's a huge difference between the current Democrat party and the current GOP under Trump. What in Biden's track record of racism, sexism and war suggests that? If you are working from the theory that Biden won't personally oversee much policy other than corporate give aways I probably agree but on his past record Biden has huge issues. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Henry Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 I'd agree there's no difference between the Dems & Reps.......hence why more voters abstained than voted last time. The only difference between Trump and Obama, Bush(2), Clinton, Bush(1) is that he doesn't do diplomacy. Trump is part of Wall Street, the others were bought and paid for by Wall Street and the Military industrial complex.They quite clearly have more differences than those meaningless Infowars style cliches. Taking just one obvious example, look at how ICE has been politicised. If you are of any ethnic group other than white male, there’s a world of difference between Trump and any candidate the Democrats could put up with. It’s such a banal, reductive analysis to say they are the same. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 15 minutes ago, welshbairn said: The others withdrew voluntarily as they weren't getting enough support, AFAIK. That is unlikely to happen this time though as Harris, Sanders, Warren and Biden are all in it to win it and it's hard to see them dropping out early. California is part of Super Tuesday now which will change the dynamics of the contest. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 10 minutes ago, sjc said: I'm sure it only went to the ballot once it was the final 2. For candidates to pick up delegates for 2020 they'll have to get at least 15% of the vote in a particular State. At the moment only Biden and Sanders are polling that well, although that's nationwide and the campaigns have barely started. The difference this time is that previously many states allocated their delegates by winner takes all, whereas now it's proportional if you meet the 15% threshold, so some candidates might last a bit longer and even take it to the convention. Bit pointless and very expensive if you've no chance of winning though, and most will drop out as usual. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-bored-of-venezuela-as-maduro-clings-to-power-report-2019-6?r=US&IR=TTrump is giving up on regime change in Venezuela because it's complicated and he got bored, report saysTrump's short attention span may save us all yet. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjc Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Savage Henry said: They quite clearly have more differences than those meaningless Infowars style cliches. Taking just one obvious example, look at how ICE has been politicised. If you are of any ethnic group other than white male, there’s a world of difference between Trump and any candidate the Democrats could put up with. It’s such a banal, reductive analysis to say they are the same. If you don't think people won't see past rhetoric, racist, sexist, bigoted or otherwise, then you haven't been paying attention to history. Democrats were awoken after the disappointment of Obama's Presidency. He promised them a lot and ended up dancing to the Corporations/MIC tune. You just need to look who funded their campaigns. Edited June 20, 2019 by sjc 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Henry Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 If you don't think people won't see past rhetoric, racist, sexist, bigoted or otherwise, then you haven't been paying attention to history. Democrats were awoken after the disappointment of Obama's Presidency. He promised them a lot and ended up dancing to the Corporations/MIC tune. You just need to look who funded their campaigns.Like I say, meaningless infowars cliches. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Savage Henry said: Like I say, meaningless infowars cliches. Yip, it might be the lesser of two evils but definitely a lesser. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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