NotThePars Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 2 hours ago, Savage Henry said: The only people who claim Biden is senile are Trump apologists. He has a vague stutter and isn’t a very smooth public talker. That doesn’t make him senile 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Henry Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 39 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Whoops! https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/14/trump-ad-asks-people-to-support-the-troops-but-it-uses-a-picture-of-russian-jets-414883 I saw it said, it’s never a French jet they use by mistake. It’s always Russian. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aDONisSheep Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 In fairness, those Russian jets, kill less British troops than their American equivalent! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralstonite Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 8 hours ago, Suspect Device said: I think they'll both look like idiots in the televised debates freakshows. But I've got a feeling that the orange idiot will win again. And the world will still turn. I seriously think whatever the result of this election there will be a backlash, but if Trump wins I expect there to be civil unrest in a lot of the cities that are already experiencing protests. 7 hours ago, Savage Henry said: The only people who claim Biden is senile are Trump apologists. He has a vague stutter and isn’t a very smooth public talker. That doesn’t make him senile. It doesn’t make him a great candidate, but he’s quite clearly not the halfwit Trump’s team make him out to be. And there aren’t any reticent Trump voters. That’s the whole point: stick it to the swamp war mongers by voting for the most militaristic swamp dweller ever to run for office. Trump voters are loud and proud about supporting an incompetent racist. The logic is absurd, but here we are. To be fair, I haven't seen a lot of him, just a couple of WhatsApp memes. Both candidates are in their seventies, so getting on a bit. With respect to Trump voters being loud and proud, I think every political party will have their staunch, zealous supporters., and of course they're the ones you notice. But it's a spectrum, and the ones approaching the middle ground, the undecideds will, naturally, not be so vocal. Like Tories, Republicans are often perceived to be selfish and reactionary, and are therefore less likely to openly espouse their views. You've heard of Shy Tories, presumably? I think the same applies to Trump voters. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_factor 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Here's what you could have won! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aladdin Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 To be fair, I haven't seen a lot of him, just a couple of WhatsApp memes. Both candidates are in their seventies, so getting on a bit. With respect to Trump voters being loud and proud, I think every political party will have their staunch, zealous supporters., and of course they're the ones you notice. But it's a spectrum, and the ones approaching the middle ground, the undecideds will, naturally, not be so vocal. Like Tories, Republicans are often perceived to be selfish and reactionary, and are therefore less likely to openly espouse their views. You've heard of Shy Tories, presumably? I think the same applies to Trump voters. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_factor Biden is nowhere near as gone as made out by Trump apologists. As has been pointed out above, he has a stutter, is getting on a bit and has always been prone to saying something a bit daft. The debates have the potential to be wild though, purely for the insults from Trump and the potential for Biden to react. 538 have consistently said that there isn't really a shy Trump voter phenomenon anymore - his voters aren't afraid to let people know who they support. I would trust 538's polling and analysis above most outlets. Trump's advantage lies in the electoral college and that he still has a decent base level of support in Florida and a couple of other swing states. Mental that he will likely take a pummeling in the popular vote but can still win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Aladdin said: Biden is nowhere near as gone as made out by Trump apologists. As has been pointed out above, he has a stutter, is getting on a bit and has always been prone to saying something a bit daft. The debates have the potential to be wild though, purely for the insults from Trump and the potential for Biden to react. 538 have consistently said that there isn't really a shy Trump voter phenomenon anymore - his voters aren't afraid to let people know who they support. I would trust 538's polling and analysis above most outlets. Trump's advantage lies in the electoral college and that he still has a decent base level of support in Florida and a couple of other swing states. Mental that he will likely take a pummeling in the popular vote but can still win. I’d agree about 538; though the graph below is from a different source it aligns closely with 538’s prediction. It would take an unprecedented upset for Biden to lose now; possible but unlikely. Edited September 15, 2020 by Granny Danger 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 UN assembly approves pandemic resolution; US, Israel object https://apnews.com/aa1069acfe0ced45f6baa2c3b82aa2e9 Surprise su-fucking-prise. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralstonite Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Aladdin said: Biden is nowhere near as gone as made out by Trump apologists. As has been pointed out above, he has a stutter, is getting on a bit and has always been prone to saying something a bit daft. The debates have the potential to be wild though, purely for the insults from Trump and the potential for Biden to react. 538 have consistently said that there isn't really a shy Trump voter phenomenon anymore - his voters aren't afraid to let people know who they support. I would trust 538's polling and analysis above most outlets. Trump's advantage lies in the electoral college and that he still has a decent base level of support in Florida and a couple of other swing states. Mental that he will likely take a pummeling in the popular vote but can still win. 1 hour ago, Granny Danger said: I’d agree about 538; though the graph below is from a different source it aligns closely with 538’s prediction. It would take an unprecedented upset for Biden to lose now; possible but unlikely. I looked at this over the weekend, actually. However The Primary Model predicts a Trump win, and the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner of 25 out of 27 elections since 1912. I have booked the Wednesday off, so look forward to seeing the results come in. It will be interesting. I can see the US fragmenting into two or three countries in the next decade or two, which I think will be a good thing. We're living in interesting times. ETA: http://primarymodel.com/ Edited September 15, 2020 by Ralstonite 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 That model predicted Trump would win the popular vote in 2016 by 52.5% to 47.5%. The result was close to the exact opposite. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee-Bey Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 13 days until the first debate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 The Despacito flex is Biden's best move yet. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 13 days until the first debate.Who did it better? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 I looked at this over the weekend, actually. However The Primary Model predicts a Trump win, and the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner of 25 out of 27 elections since 1912. I have booked the Wednesday off, so look forward to seeing the results come in. It will be interesting. I can see the US fragmenting into two or three countries in the next decade or two, which I think will be a good thing. We're living in interesting times. ETA: http://primarymodel.com/I'm not going to pretend I understand the American election process, but according to news the other night Biden is quite far ahead in Polls. Seems that Trump has lost big female white base as well as Catholic vote decreasing? Your model seems to contradict that? Like I say i dont fully understand it? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralstonite Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 8 hours ago, welshbairn said: That model predicted Trump would win the popular vote in 2016 by 52.5% to 47.5%. The result was close to the exact opposite. I didn't know that, though it's still pretty close. 4 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said: I'm not going to pretend I understand the American election process, but according to news the other night Biden is quite far ahead in Polls. Seems that Trump has lost big female white base as well as Catholic vote decreasing? Your model seems to contradict that? Like I say i dont fully understand it? Abortion is a huge issue for Catholics, so I'd be surprised if he lost much of the Catholic vote, though of course Hispanics tend to be Catholic and tend to vote Democrat, so who knows? One should also remember that the polls almost unanimously predicted Hilary would win last time. I have already stated my belief in the shy Republican accounting for the disparity in the polls, but we shall have to wait and see. There's a long way to go yet. With Covid, civil unrestm wild fires, unemployment, etc, Trump's vote might collapse. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 (edited) 33 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said: I'm not going to pretend I understand the American election process, but according to news the other night Biden is quite far ahead in Polls. Seems that Trump has lost big female white base as well as Catholic vote decreasing? Your model seems to contradict that? Like I say i dont fully understand it? Simple answer is there a few swing states ie florida/michagan....win them you win the election....so you can get every vote in say california or texas but it means nothing you still get the same seats Win the swing states and you win the election Edited September 16, 2020 by doulikefish 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 1 hour ago, doulikefish said: Simple answer is there a few swing states ie florida/michagan....win them you win the election....so you can get every vote in say california or texas but it means nothing you still get the same seats Win the swing states and you win the election hence why the Lincoln Project's Hispanic outreach for Biden is saying Trump is basically Castro. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Simple answer is there a few swing states ie florida/michagan....win them you win the election....so you can get every vote in say california or texas but it means nothing you still get the same seats Win the swing states and you win the election At the moment Trump is behind in states that matter - Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida and Virginia. Only Indiana is heavily pro-Trump. The fact that Texas is a toss-up shows how much Trump has to catch up. If things stay as they are he would lose in a landslide. What will be interesting this time is how many black voters get out and vote for Biden in the numbers they voted for Obama - if they do then Biden will win. Trump's base is narrowing to uneducated White males - and even they are not a given. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 1 hour ago, NotThePars said: hence why the Lincoln Project's Hispanic outreach for Biden is saying Trump is basically Castro. Whatever works. That Twitter post leads to a Miami Herald page with a video on top that is no way pro Biden, old and creepy is the message. They might have fucked up there. Here's the Castro bit. Quote Immigration laws need to be debated and reformed in Congress, but as an immigrant who had the good fortune to be welcomed by this country with open arms, I fully identify with anyone who has tried to cross our border or taken an overloaded boat in hope of a better future. The sight of families being separated and children put in cages will remain a shameful stain in our country’s history. In calling our free press as “the enemy of the people,” Trump has much more in common with Fidel Castro than with any leader of a truly democratic country. A president who tries to cast doubt on our institutions and electoral system is acting more like a dictator than a true leader of the free world. A president who claims that, if he’s not reelected there will be mayhem, as Trump has also done, represents the very opposite of freedom and justice. And here's the page with the video on top that needs the sound turned on. https://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/op-ed/article245715145.html 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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